2021 RBC Heritage Picks: Our Favorite Matchups & Prop Bets at Harbour Town
Steve Dykes/Getty Images. Pictured: JT Poston
It’s always sad to leave Augusta National but if you’re a part of the GolfBet community you know our credo: “The money you win on the John Deere Classic is just as green as the cash you win on the Masters.”
With those words ringing in our head, we move on to the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town. Oftentimes the field for the tournament right after a major is lacking starpower but plenty of the TOUR’s biggest names have made their way to Harbour Town, setting us up for a fun weekend of action.
Here are our favorite prop bets and matchups for the 2021 RBC Heritage:
Matthew NeSmith Top-20 Finish (+500)
From Doc Redman to Chesson Hadley, there are a lot of sleepers with Carolina connections whom I like this week — and NeSmith certainly qualifies, as well.
That home-stater should feel at home not just for Harbour Town’s location, but for its premium on ball-striking, which fits his game. He owns top-20s in three of seven starts already this season, and this type of course in this environment should be more up his alley than any of those previous venues. Don’t be afraid to also play him for top-10s and maybe a little outright, as well.
Chris Kirk Top-10 Finish (+550)
There are three players that rank in the top 35 in all of the statistics I am looking at this week. They are Charley Hoffman, Paul Casey, and Chris Kirk.
I can’t say that I expected to continue talking about Kirk at this stage of the year, but his play has simply been phenomenal. He has four top-25 finishes in his last five events, and the fifth result was at THE PLAYERS where he absolutely tanked from the third to final pairing on Sunday to finish 48th.
Kirk has been great across his bag over the past several events, and most importantly for this week, his ball-striking has been pure. I’ll be in on Kirk all the way up to a win, but I see this top 10 as a strong value for him at Harbour Town.
Sergio Garcia Top-5 Finish (+650)
Sergio burned a lot of people last week at Augusta, myself included. However, all of the reasons I loved Sergio last week still apply this week. His ball-striking statistics were peaking prior to The Masters and he was playing some of the best golf since he got his green jacket in 2017.
In the 2020 RBC Heritage, Sergio finished in fifth-place while gaining 13.9 strokes from tee to green and a whopping 9.9 strokes on approach. Garcia has some impressive history on Pete Dye designs in his career including a PLAYERS Championship victory (2008) and ranks 22nd in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Pete Dye tracks.
Sergio also boasts a victory at the Wyndham Championship (2012) which can be looked at as a corollary course as a few notable players have had some crossover success including Webb Simpson and Si Woo Kim.
For reasons unknown, Sergio can’t compete in major championships anymore, but that doesn’t mean we can’t back him at the RBC Heritage this week.
J.T. Poston Top-30 Finish (+325)
This is more of a course history play than anything. Despite not being the best ball-striker, Poston actually hits it very well at Harbour Town. He ranks seventh in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green per round at this event, trailing only Nesmith, Emiliano Grillo, Dylan Frittelli, Patrick Cantlay, Abraham Ancer and Sergio Garcia.
Poston also ranks No. 2 in this field in SG: Putting over his past 36 rounds, which we know is rather important at this event. In two starts here he’s finished T-8 and T-6, so asking him to simply finish inside the top 30 should not be too difficult. At just over 3/1 this is a strong bet.
Doug Ghim Top-20 Finish (+400)
Ghim doesn’t have the short game required to win golf tournaments quite yet, but he is an immaculate striker of the golf ball that should be able to find success at Harbour Town. Ghim ranks 15th in this field in SG: Approach, but 132nd in putting over the last 12 rounds. If he can just find a way to putt average, or even slightly below average, I like his chances at cracking the top 20 this week.
Tyrrell Hatton (-103) over Matthew Fitzpatrick
A few years ago, Fitzpatrick mentioned publicly that Harbour Town is his favorite course. Ever since then, he’s been overvalued at this tournament, especially considering he’s never even finished in the top-10 in six career appearances.
Don’t get me wrong: Fitz is a usual betting favorite of mine, but I’ll take the world’s eighth-ranked player as a ‘dog over No. 17 in this matchup. An opening-round 76 at THE PLAYERS Championship (he shot 69 the next day, but still MC’d) was the only thing keeping Hatton from finishing top-25 in his last nine stroke-play events worldwide and 15 of his last 18.
His T-3 result at this tournament last year should have us expecting another title contention — and an easy cash in this matchup.
Charley Hoffman (+100) vs. Kevin Kisner
I have already shown my love to Hoffman as my pick to win, but when I came across this matchup, I just couldn’t pass it up. There is no world right now where Hoffman should be an underdog to Kevin Kisner.
Kiz has been lost on the course for weeks, as even in the underlying numbers he was playing poorly as he battled to win his group at the Dell Match Play. He then went to The Masters where he admitted to testing a new grip, only to miss the cut.
I will take the strong form of Hoffman over the poor form of Kiser at even money, regardless of the strong course history for Kisner at Harbour Town.
Dustin Johnson (+100) over Webb Simpson
This one is pretty simple, when you get the No. 1 player in the world at even or plus money you should look to hammer it regardless of opponent. Simpson is the defending champion here and has some pretty strong history, while DJ has yet to register a top-10 at Harbour Town. However, missing the cut at the Masters for the first time in his career should give him a little extra rest heading into this week.
Simpson also played deep into the weekend at Augusta, posting a T-12, so maybe he comes out a little sluggish. DJ’s recent bad stretch of play will not certainly continue much longer, and getting him at plus money here stands out like a sore thumb.
Harris English (-143) over Lee Westwood
My model is showing a full 10% edge on this line as it currently sits on FanDuel. Lee Westwood has missed his last two cuts, and has looked bad doing it. This may be the last week we get to take advantage of the public still buying into his resurgence at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and PLAYERS Championship.
Harris hasn’t been lighting it up lately by any means, but he did finish 21st at the Masters last week and should have no problem out performing Westwood this week. Back English with confidence in this matchup.