2021 Valero Texas Open Outright Bets: Our Favorite Picks at TPC San Antonio Include Cameron Davis and More
Sam Greenwood, Getty Images. Pictured: Cameron Tringale.
- TPC San Antonio is full of surprises, so don't be shocked if we see someone unexpected win the 2021 Valero Texas Open.
- The GolfBet team is looking right past the very top of the board for their favorite outright bets for the 2021 Valero Texas Open:
Augusta may be looming on the horizon but there’s still business — and betting — to attend to before we head down Magnolia Lane.
The Valero Texas Open can be full of surprises. Featuring a wide-open field on a tricky course and the potential for some hijinks from Mother Nature, don’t be shocked if we see some funky stuff go down on TOUR this week.
With that in mind here are our favorite outright bets for the 2021 Valero Texas Open:
Ryan Palmer (+2800)
There might not be a more unheralded, overlooked player in the world’s top-30 right now than Palmer, who’s finished in the top-25 in 15 of 27 starts since the beginning of last year. Perhaps the answer to rhetorical question as to why he doesn’t receive more attention lies in what he hasn’t accomplished more than what he has.
Palmer has ascended the OWGR despite only winning three individual titles on the PGA TOUR – and none since 2010. Yes, he did win the Zurich Classic alongside Jon Rahm two years ago and yes, that does count as an official victory, but it wasn’t recognized by the OWGR, which means that according to those numbers, the world’s 26th-ranked player hasn’t won a golf tournament in more than 11 years.
Well, apparently he’s due – and there would be few events that would be as fitting for the Texan as the Texas Open. Palmer MC’d in each of his last two starts here, but finished 6th-4th-6th in the three years before that. You would’ve lost a few bucks betting him to win over his last – gulp – 263 starts without a victory, but it’s time for him to add another one to his profile.
Cameron Davis (+4100)
There is no doubt that Cameron Davis has the talent to win on TOUR and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him finally break through this week at TPC San Antonio. This course sets up really well for the Australian, as he handles the wind well and has shown to be a ball-striking machine this season.
The stats I’m paying attention to the most this week all have to do with ball-striking with a heavy lean towards approach play. Each of the last three winners of this event have finished first or second on the week in strokes gained: approach, and that is an area Davis has been thriving of late. He’s gained at least 2.5 strokes with his irons in six of his last eight tournaments, and most recently gained 4.5 strokes on approach at the Honda Classic.
If Davis can continue to hit it well off the tee, and position himself to pepper these difficult to hit greens, Davis can get himself in contention with just an average putter, all of which is worth a gamble at +4100.
Lanto Griffin (+5000)
A former winner in Texas, Lanto comes to TPC San Antonio in good form. In the field over his past 24 rounds Griffin ranks sixth in approach, 11th in Ball-Striking and 8th in Bermudagrass putting.
If he is in contention down the stretch I trust his ability to win a PGA TOUR event, which can’t be said for many golfers in the mid-tier this week.
Cameron Tringale (+3300)
It feels like Tringale has been knocking on the door for quite awhile now. We’ve seen him post a myriad of top-10 finishes throughout his career, but for whatever reason it hasn’t all clicked at the same time. It just shows how difficult it is to win on TOUR.
Tringale has been one of the hottest players on the planet for a while now, as over his past 48 rounds in this field he sits third overall in total strokes gained and 12th in SG: Ball-Striking.
This is most certainly a ball-striker’s course and with the Dustin Johnson withdrawal it opens the door for others to take advantage. Tringale has played this event every year since 2010 and made the cut in seven of those appearances. He’s also shown upside here with a pair of top-10s and a T-17 back in 2019. He’s 33/1 on FanDuel compared to 25/1 on DraftKings, showing how important it is to shop around for your lines.
Charley Hoffman (+3300)
I’ll take the all-time tournament earnings leader and his sick record at TPC San Antonio, especially in this field. Even better, his Sunday fade at Corales likely impacted his value in our favor.
Cameron Davis (+4100)
As recent as the American Express event played in January, Davis was listed at 100/1. He finished third that week, but proved he has what it takes to win on TOUR.
I certainly miss the days where we were able to get triple-digit odds on him, but, the market has caught on to how good this kid really is. His immaculate ball-striking, and ability to control his ball in windy conditions, will be useful weapons that fit TPC San Antonio perfectly. I like Davis to break through this week.