2023 Genesis Invitational Odds, Picks: Our Best Bets for Schauffele, Thomas, Spieth & More
Pictured: Xander Schauffele. (Photo by David Cannon/Getty Images)
The PGA TOUR concludes its West Coast swing with a bang with the Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club.
Our staff has its Genesis Invitational picks ready as 23 of the top 25 players in the world will tee it up in the field this week. Oh, and by the way, Tiger Woods will also be in the field in addition to serving as the tournament host.
Our top golf betting experts break down their best bets along with long shots, contrarian players and biggest busts below.
Favorite We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: Rory McIlroy
- Chris Murphy:Justin Thomas
- Matt Vincenzi: Justin Thomas
- Spencer Aguiar: Xander Schauffele
- Nick Bretwisch: Patrick Cantlay
Pick: Rory McIlroy +1000 |
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Best Long Shot
- Jason Sobel: Adam Scott
- Chris Murphy: Taylor Moore
- Matt Vincenzi: Keegan Bradley
- Spencer Aguiar: Tommy Fleetwood
- Nick Bretwisch: Keith Mitchell
Biggest Bust
- Jason Sobel: Viktor Hovland
- Chris Murphy: Sungjae Im
- Matt Vincenzi: Max Homa
- Spencer Aguiar: Jason Day
Contrarian Player to Target
- Jason Sobel: Thomas Detry
- Chris Murphy: Dylan Frittelli
- Matt Vincenzi: Beau Hossler
- Spencer Aguiar: Brian Harman
- Nick Bretwisch: Tom Kim
Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy
Sobel: What separates Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy right now? Not a whole lot, as the PGA TOUR’s top three are very close in terms of talent, success, etc. I did, however, identify some differentiation in my weekly preview column.
Since the beginning of last year, Scheffler and Rahm have each won five titles – and all of those titles have occurred when they took the previous week off. McIlroy, on the other hand, has a higher win ratio, higher top-10 percentage and higher average finish when he’s played the previous week. If you’re trying to choose an investment between these three, this trend clearly points to Rory.
Murphy: I feel like a broken record early this year, but this is another track where you want some history.
Very few players have done well at Riviera in their debut, and even the ones who have, like Cameron Young, had some prior history around the course like his play in the 2017 U.S. Amateur. This is an old school, thinking man’s course, and players will miss a ton of fairways and greens. The key this week will be knowing where to miss, while also bringing a top tier game from tee to green.
Aguiar: While I am not weighing course history more than I would on a typical week, the expected performances do generate a boost inside of my model when a golfer has shown the propensity to find success in the past at Riviera Country Club.
Part of that reason stems from the fast Poa greens that will enhance the three-putt percentage and around the green importance, and the other portion comes from understanding the ability to know where you can miss and still salvage par.
Bretwisch: Like Spencer, I do respect those who have played well at this track, but it won’t be an end all be all. Players who win this event and grade strongly for me come into this event with strong form off the tee (distance mainly but overall having a positive strokes gained off the tee trend).
I want to pair that with players who excel on approach proximity from 150-200 yards (from both the fairway and non-penal rough) and have the ability to get up and down after missing a green in regulation.
Your Best Bet
Sobel: Adam Scott Top 10 +500
This is simply a situation of class recognizing class. There are few players as classy (on or off the golf course) as Scott and few venues as classy as Riviera. Ever since an unofficial, weather-shortened, 36-hole victory in his initial start here back in 2005, Scott has taken to this track like, well, a duck to water. In 14 career starts here, he owns seven top-10s and four top-twos, if we include that unofficial result.
Some players you can pencil in for a certain tournament annually; other players you can write it down with a Sharpie. That’s the case for Scotty here, as he’s a similarly smart play in DFS and OADs, too.
Pick: Adam Scott Top 10 |
Murphy: Taylor Moore Top 20 +333 (BetMGM)
We fell just a couple of shots short with my best bet on Hayden Buckley for top 20 last week, but I’ll go back to the well right here. Taylor Moore has quietly put together a really impressive opening stretch to the season and has done it on all types of courses and in some of the best fields we have seen this year. He posted his third consecutive top 15 last week at the WM Phoenix Open and gained more than six shots on that elite field with his ball striking.
I got a chance to watch every shot of his over the weekend as he was a part of the featured groups, and he certainly passed the eye test. Moore now heads to Riviera where he will get to roll it on his preferred poa greens, and it will be his second time at this event after posting a T21 in his debut last year. I’m all in on Moore becoming one of the names to know as the season progresses, and I really like his value at +333 to top 20 on BetMGM, where all ties are paid in full.
Vincenzi: Justin Thomas +1600 (DraftKings)
Justin Thomas was my headline bet last week, and despite not winning, he didn't disappoint. In fact, it was an extremely encouraging outing for last year's PGA Championship winner. Thomas finished in solo fourth place and shot an impressive final-round 65.
JT gained 12.1 strokes from tee to green, which was second only to the winner, Scottie Scheffler. He was excellent in all phases of his tee-to-green game, gaining 4.7 strokes off the tee, 4.1 on approach and 3.3 around the green. Thomas putting it all together at TPC Scottsdale is a great sign for his chances at Riviera. The course will demand a well-rounded game from golfers this week, and Thomas is starting to round into peak form.
In addition to his great week in Arizona last week, Thomas has also had a great deal of success at Riviera, and history has shown that players who have a strong track record at the course are more likely to have a repeat performance.
In his past five starts at the Genesis Invitational, Thomas has three top-10 finishes, including a second-place finish in 2019. In that event, JT lost to J.B. Holmes on a windy Sunday when he played 36 holes. The 29-year-old ranks seventh in the field in Strokes Gained: Total in his past 24 rounds at Riviera.
Thomas is trending in the right direction, and all signs point to him finally getting his long-coveted victory in the event that Tiger Woods hosts.
Pick: Justin Thomas +1500 |
Aguiar: Xander Schauffele +1900 (Bet365)
Xander Schauffele ended up grading as one of only two golfers in this field to break the top 20 of my model for both weighted tee to green and recalculated short-game returns. For those wondering, the other option was Max Homa, the 2021 champion of this event, and it might be time for Schauffele to pencil his name into the winner's circle at an event set up for him to generate high-end returns.
Schauffele cracked the top 10 in six of the seven categories that I ran from a statistical perspective this week. His first-place overall grade when combining three-putt avoidance, putting from 5-10 feet, around the green and putting on fast Poa separated him from most other elite names in this contest.
Pick: Xander Schauffele +1900 |
Bretwisch: Jordan Spieth Top 40 -150 (FanDuel)
I absolutely hate eating the juice on Jordan Spieth here, but this is a pure number grab for me with a player coming off of a form-finding weekend in Phoenix and two top-30 finishes in this event. Despite the low odds, I trust that Spieth found his swing last week, and we’ll continue the successful trends with the driver and the mid-range iron play from all surfaces.
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