Twins vs. Marlins Odds & Betting Predictions - July 3, 2025

Twins at Marlins

4:10 pm • MNNT

Minnesota Twins

41-45

1 - 4

Miami Marlins

38-46

pitcher		team	era	w-l
E.Perez			6.19	0-2
D.Festa			5.40	2-2

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Twins 41-45	N/A	N/A	N/A
Marlins 38-46	N/A	N/A	N/A

Thursday 4:10 p.m.

July 03, 2025

loanDepot parkMiami

E.Perez o14.5 Outs-184

0.54u

Under 8-110

0.91u

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Under 4.5 (F5)-115

0.43u

Feels odd backing both of these pitchers who have ERAs north of 5 but the underlying metrics suggest both have been better than their surface stats. Eury Perez has a 6.19 ERA but a 3.67 xERA. His 13.9% walk rate is what's killing him but the Twins walk at the 6th lowest rate, so I'm hoping this matchup can reduce the number of walks he dishes out. On the other side, David Festa has a 5.40 ERA but a 4.75 xERA. His biggest issue has been home runs (1.47 HR/9) but this is a good matchup for him on paper as the Marlins have the 6th lowest team ISO rate. This is all to say that both pitchers have good matchups that help with their biggest pain points this season, and I'm hoping we see both get some positive regression on Thursday. I have this projected closer to 4 earned runs over the F5.

MIA -102

MIA +100

E.Perez o5.5 Ks+125

Under 8-109

Cold Bats, Cooler Totals Overall: 811-574-61,59% (ROI:13%) Season:24-20-0,55% (ROI:4%)

E.Perez o5.5 Ks+125

1.25u

MIA +104

1.04u

Under 4.5 (F5)-120

Under 8.5-118

0.5u

Bet to 8 (-110)

MIN -1.5+145

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MLB Public Betting

Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 games against the spread
Marlins are 27-14 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Marlins' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 18 of Marlins' 44 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	50-35	23-21	27-14	3-7	46-27
Twins	45-42	23-16	22-26	28-27	16-15

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Marlins	42-43	18-26	24-17	5-5	36-37
Twins	36-47-4	18-20-1	18-27-3	24-29-2	11-18-2

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Marlins	39-46	19-25	20-21	5-5	34-39
Twins	41-46	22-17	19-29	29-26	12-19

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 2nd	MIN	L 1-2	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIN +101
Jul 1st	MIN	W 2-0	+1.5 W	U 7.5	MIA +120
Jun 29th	@ARI	W 6-4	+1.5 W	O 9	MIA +155
Jun 28th	@ARI	W 8-7	+1.5 W	O 9	MIA +138
Jun 28th	@ARI	W 9-8	+1.5 W	O 8.5	MIA +144

Braxton Garrett
SP
Garrett is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Max Meyer
SP
Meyer is out for season with hip
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RD.Festa, P	87	6	7	4
RJ.Topa, P	16	1	1	0
LK.Funderburk, P	13	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1B.Buxton, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2T.Larnach, DH	2-4	0	0	0
3W.Castro, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
4B.Lee, SS	0-4	0	0	0
5T.France, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
6M.Wallner, RF	1-4	1	1	1
7R.Lewis, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
8H.Bader, LF	1-3	0	0	0
9C.Vazquez, C	0-2	0	0	0
9R.Jeffers, PH	0-1	0	0	0
9R.Jeffers, C	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RE.Perez, P	80	6	7	0
LC.Gibson, P	9	0.2	1	1
RA.Bender, P	6	0.1	0	0
RC.Faucher, P	6	1	1	0
RR.Henriquez, P	15	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1X.Edwards, 2B	2-4	2	0	0
2J.Sanchez, RF	2-4	0	0	1
3O.Lopez, SS	1-4	1	0	1
4A.Ramirez, DH	1-4	1	1	2
5K.Stowers, LF	0-3	0	0	0
6E.Wagaman, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
7L.Hicks, C	1-2	0	0	0
7N.Fortes, C	0-0	0	0	0
8C.Norby, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
9D.Hill, CF	0-3	0	0	0