Yankees bounce-back spot — Detroit’s win streak? Came vs White Sox. Now face NY’s top-tier offense — 6-3 record, 5.8 runs/game. Mize solid vs SEA but career vs NYY? 0-1, 5.23 ERA. Judge-Goldschmidt combo slugging 1.300+ OPS. Too much firepower, too soon. Tigers' pen overworked — 11 pitchers used in 3 games. ERA 4.38, WHIP 1.46. Yankees grind ABs — Judge, Bellinger, Goldy all 45%+ Hard Hit%. Mize’s whiff rate decent but shaky command. Walks hurt vs NYY. Detroit can’t survive another tight bullpen battle here. Tigers hit .219 with .639 OPS vs LHP. Weak vs southpaws. NY bats too deep. Tigers' margin for error? Thin. Yankees should roll, and cover the -1.5 with comfort in cold Comerica.

Easton Lucas generates 53.8% groundballs – keeps hitters off barrels. Richard Fitts allows just 45% flyballs and no barrels so far. Both arms suppress lift and exit velo. Toronto’s lineup hitting just .257 with a 4.21 ERA allowed. Boston better but inflated by Abreu. Lucas dominates the zone – 71.9% swing rate on strikes, no barrels allowed. Fitts commands well – 60.6% in-zone rate, 76.7% swing rate. Both catchers pop fast and control the run game – less chaos, less scoring. Fenway winds blowing in early April = dead ball. Neither team red-hot: Jays 0-3 on the road, scoring 2.7 runs/game in those. Red Sox 3-4 in last 7 vs AL teams, despite 5-game streak. No lineup updates yet, but early game + cold + sharp starters = slugfest unlikely.

Nationals can’t stop the bleeding – Dodgers roll again. LA ranks top-3 in xSLG (.475), xwOBA (.357), and Hard Hit% (42.4). Ohtani’s smashing 69% hard contact, 99.1 EV. Conforto adds 52.6% HH%, .648 xSLG. Dodgers hit .292 xBA+ with five starters above league average. Nats lineup doesn’t scare anyone – six starters under .250 xBA, three under .200. Team average xSLG just .392, lowest in NL. Facing Dustin May’s 33.3% K rate and .205 xBA allowed, expect whiffs and weak contact. Gore’s allowed .407 xSLG, lacks command late in counts. Dodgers ground game strong – 46.3% GB rate helps avoid popups, keep pressure on. WSH defense mid-tier, doesn’t bail out mistakes. Nationals hit just 35.4% hard, bottom-6 in MLB. With LA raking and WSH whiffing, a 2-run gap looks light.

Lightning own this matchup – 6-2 win in last meeting, outshot NYR 44-25. Tampa's offense clicking: 3.54 goals/game (4th), 53 PP goals (6th). Rangers' PK slipping – 5 PPGs allowed last 5 games, gave up both PP + SHG in last outing. Momentum edge is real here. Rangers in freefall – 3-6-1 last 10, playoff hopes fading. Power play ice-cold: 3-for-52 last 19 games. Team pressing, forcing plays, getting burned. Lightning’s defense solid: 2.61 GA/game (7th), Vasilevskiy locked in. NYR offense can’t generate real pressure. Lightning also dominate key possession stats – 28.7 shots/game vs NYR’s 28.5, but allow fewer (28.2 vs 29.8). Better discipline on special teams too: 6th in PP goals, NYR 23rd in PK%. Tampa wins the efficiency battle all over the ice – sharper, deeper, hotter team right now.

Chicago hits .308 at home (vs TEX's .216 away). Cubs won last H2H 9–5, racked up .885 OPS. Tucker leads with 5 HR, 15 RBI. Justin Steele starts – 4.0% weak contact, 40% GB rate, keeps it clean. Cubs offense .814 OPS led by Hoerner (.361) + Tucker. Rangers starters give up 61.8% GB – Cubs have elite lift bats (Swanson, Suzuki). TEX bottom-tier in hits allowed. Wrigley favors contact hitters. Steele sharp – wins in the zone, soft contact king. 55.9% zone rate, 28% FBs, limits barrels. TEX bats chase-heavy – Burger 47.8% chase rate. Cubs have lowest weak contact rate across starters. Cubs better in nearly every matchup here.

Atlanta 29th in runs/game (2.4), 28th in AVG (.202). Shut out 3x, incl. Sat. Just 7 hits vs MIA, 0-for-9 RISP. Alcantara: 2.94 ERA in 13 starts vs ATL, 3.45 at Truist. Last outing: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER vs NYM. MIA scores 3.8 runs/game (20th), under in 4 of last 5. Holmes has 7.20 ERA, but MIA .236 AVG, weak HR numbers. Braves pen solid (2.00 ERA vs MIA), limits late runs if Holmes exits early. Both teams cold at the plate, limited power bats, few extra-base threats. Alcantara 73.9% GB rate, just 4.3% barrel rate allowed. MIA 21-49 at Truist, rarely scores big.

Houston allows just 58.5 PPG, 38.2% opp FG%, top-3 in opp a/FGM. Florida puts up 85.3 PPG but this is the National Championship. Houston slows pace, suffocates perimeter – 30.3% opp 3P%, best in the country. Florida D trending up – allows 58.6 PPG last 5. Houston’s offense is methodical: 73.9 PPG, 62 vs Purdue, 70 vs Duke. Both teams sit outside top 200 in tempo. Long possessions, halfcourt sets. Not many easy buckets with this matchup. Neutral site helps the under – tough shooting in dome. Houston under in 6 of last 9 non-conf. Gators haven't faced a defense this good in weeks. Florida’s big scoring nights came vs weak D. Houston forces tough 2s, dominates boards.

Padres lineup is loaded: Tatis .490 xwOBA, Merrill .394 xBA, 46.4% Hard Hit. Bogaerts 45% HH%, Díaz 46.2%. San Diego ranks top 6 in team xSLG (.483), avg exit velo 90.9 mph. Severino gives up barrels (9.1%), xSLG .517, xBA .295. King’s xBA .185, but 46.7% HH% & 13.3% Barrel% on low sample. Both pens bottom-10 in ERA. A’s hitters like Wilson, Soderstrom above .500 xSLG – power across lineup. Padres elite launch angle & pull rate – matchup favors HRs. Teams combine for 9 hitters above 40% Hard Hit% — Athletics top-10 in team Barrel%, Padres top-5 in xSLG — Severino struggles with loud contact, .391 xwOBA allowed