Follow @PicksOffice on X. Kodai Senga’s 1.59 ERA? Not sustainable. Opponents hitting just .224, but xERA, xwOBA, and contact quality say regression’s coming fast. James Wood leads Nats with .398 xwOBA, 58% hard-hit rate – crushes mistakes. Soroka just blanked Texas over 6 innings. He’s heating up. Mets bullpen taxed after heavy recent usage. If Soroka gets thru 6, edge swings to Nats' pen. Washington bats hammer deception arms – García (.375 xwOBA), Abrams (.354), Wood (.573 xSLG). Mets hitters flyball-heavy (27.8%) vs elite OF defense – Jacob Young’s +3 OAA could swing key ABs. Afternoon start skews normal rhythm – Senga throws just 45.5% in the zone. One early swing flips the script.

Follow @PicksOffice on X. Brewers throwing a rookie into the fire – Misiorowski debuts vs. a seasoned Cardinals lineup. STL sends Sonny Gray (7-1, 3.35 ERA), who’s been elite lately – 4-0, 2.50 ERA over last 6. Cards offense ranks 6th in MLB in runs, led by Donovan’s .310 AVG & .368 xwOBA. Gray owns MIL – 3.23 ERA in 95 career IP vs them, including 6.1 scoreless vs LAD last week. Brewers offense fading – Hoskins .315 OPS in June, Contreras only 2 RBIs. Cards are built to rattle rookies early. Brewers bullpen a problem – 4.41 ERA, could be exposed if Misiorowski’s pitch count climbs. Cardinals already up 2-1 in season series, and they’ve got the urgency after 4 straight losses. Road win sets the tone. Veteran ace + patient bats = bounce-back night.

Follow @PicksOffice on X. White Sox quietly heating up – 5 wins in last 7, avg. 5 runs/game in that stretch. Only 1 loss by more than 2 runs since May 19. Just beat Houston 4-2 Tuesday. Momentum matters. Lineup locked in: Slater (.393 xwOBA), Robert heating up, Vargas barreling sinkers. Davis Martin in night games? Different beast – 1.74 ERA under the lights across 5 starts. Dominates with late movement, thrives in cool air. Astros' offense slumping vs RHP (58 wRC+ in June). Martin already saw success last start vs Houston lineup that’s underperforming. Valdez shaky vs CHW in May – gave up 4 ER in 5 IP. Four-game win streak feels due for regression. White Sox now grinding ABs.