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Zylbert: Banking on Starting Pitcher Regression in Rockies-Cubs

Oct 02, 2018 5:34 PM EDT

Betting odds: Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs

Over/Under: 7
First Pitch: 8:08 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Probable Pitchers: Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85 ERA) vs. Jon Lester (18-6, 3.32 ERA)


Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 102-73-4, +21.35 units
Last Result: Marlins-Mets Under 7, Alcantara vs. Syndergaard (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


Those betting the over in tonight’s National League wild-card game could be going down a dangerous path, since Colorado’s Freeland saw the under hit a whopping 24 times in his 33 starts (72.7%) in 2018. That was the best under record in baseball behind only Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola (23-8-2).

Unders were also Freeland’s forté a year ago in his rookie campaign, when he was 18-8-2 in favor of such bets. That means in his two seasons in the big leagues, the under has gone an absurd 42-16-3 (72.4%) when Freeland is starting.

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Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Javier Baez and David Dahl

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@MattZylbert
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