Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Pick, Odds for Tuesday, July 1

Kenny Ducey's Giants vs Diamondbacks Preview

San Francisco Giants Betting Preview: Offense Continues to Struggle

Hayden Birdsong has fallen on hard times this month, reversing course after a solid start to the season. After coughing up 12 runs (11 earned) in his past two outings, his ERA stands at 4.13 — and part of the reason for this slide is his plummeting strikeout rate.

Birdsong is still getting a fair amount of whiffs, but he's now down to the 51st percentile in strikeouts and that's meant that, as a fly-ball pitcher, he's a bit more vulnerable upon contact. His Expected Batting Average still stands at .238, but he's still worse than average in Expected Slugging. Strangely enough, his ERA on the road has been better despite pitching in a friendly home park, and he's allowed fewer home runs on average away from San Francisco.

The unfortunate news for Birdsong is that he may not get much support from his offense here. San Francisco is just 24th in wRC+ over the past two weeks with a weak .118 Isolated Power and a lowly .216 average. Strikeouts haven't been a massive issue, and it's at least walking over 10% of the time, but quality contact has been hard to come by.

Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: What's Wrong with Gallen?

The Diamondbacks continue swinging very freely, checking in with a low 19.6% strikeout rate and even-lower 6.8% walk rate over the past two weeks. They've really excelled when it comes to slugging the ball, rocking a beefy .193 Isolated Power over that span, and their .263 average is backed by a sustainable .290 BABIP which is just four points higher than their season average.

They'd ordinarily be looking strong entering this matchup, but their starting pitcher on Tuesday is a bit lost at the moment. Zac Gallen is enduring the worst season of his career, and sadly the writing has been on the wall for quite some time.

The righty has seen a slow drop in his strikeout rate over the past couple of years, and now that he's come down six points from where he was last year, his poor efforts in generating friendly contact are coming to the surface.

Gallen has generated far fewer ground balls this season, and that's led to a huge spike in his xSLG, which is all the way up to an unsightly .490 along with a poor .260 xBA. The walks are becoming an issue as well after his control deserted him in 2024, and while he's shored up those issues somewhat this month he's still allowing an unacceptable number of homers and walks relative to his strikeouts and contact numbers.

Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Betting Analysis

The Giants may not be hitting for power at the moment, but that should change with Gallen on the hill. They've performed better against fly-ball pitchers this season, and with their patience at the plate and Gallen's extremely bad numbers on contact I believe this will be the time to get right.

On the flip side, Arizona's been worse against fly-ball arms with its aim toward aggressive swings, and while Birdsong has been experiencing a rough patch I still believe there's a lot of talent in his arm — and in theory a start in Arizona — where fly balls go to die — is a safe one to back him, even if Arizona won't be whiffing a ton.

We went with the short home favorites on Monday, now we'll back the road team in a much friendlier spot versus a vastly overrated righty.

Pick: Giants ML (+115)

Moneyline

I'm backing the Giants on the moneyline against the Diamondbacks.

Run Line (Spread)

I'm not betting the Giants vs. Diamondbacks run line.

Over/Under

I'm going to pass on the Giants vs. Diamondbacks over/under.

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