David Price. Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys had a big weekend as dogs won +15.44 units and teams getting 40% or fewer bets won +21.29 units.
- Sharps are buying low on three dogs tonight.
- Professional bettors are also getting down on an Under and a rare contrarian Over.
It was a great weekend for MLB wiseguys. Sharp Report plays went a combined 4-1 on Saturday and Sunday. Overall, dogs went 16-15 (+9.38 units) and teams getting 40% or fewer bets went 17-9 (+15.44 units). Since the All-Star break, dogs getting 40% or fewer bets have gone 46-46 (+21.29 units). Pro players will look to keep the good vibes going tonight.
After analyzing Monday’s small nine-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed five MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m., 8:10 p.m., 10:05 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
- Sharp angles: Over 9
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
In the most heavily bet game of the night, public bettors see a marquee pitching matchup between Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.42 ERA) and David Price (11-6, 4.17 ERA) and automatically think low-scoring game. Currently, 72% of bets are taking the Under. This is extremely rare. You almost never see such heavy Under betting (public bettors usually gravitate to Overs).
Despite the overwhelming Under betting, the total has remained frozen at 9. This indicates liability on the Over, with books reluctant to drop the line to 8.5 and hand out a better number to contrarian over backers. Wiseguys at the Greek, CRIS and Heritage all got down hard on the Over 9. An added bonus for Over backers: it’s a perfect night at Fenway, with wind blowing out to straightaway center.