Monday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Phillies-Red Sox, Four Other Games
David Price. Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys had a big weekend as dogs won +15.44 units and teams getting 40% or fewer bets won +21.29 units.
- Sharps are buying low on three dogs tonight.
- Professional bettors are also getting down on an Under and a rare contrarian Over.
It was a great weekend for MLB wiseguys. Sharp Report plays went a combined 4-1 on Saturday and Sunday. Overall, dogs went 16-15 (+9.38 units) and teams getting 40% or fewer bets went 17-9 (+15.44 units). Since the All-Star break, dogs getting 40% or fewer bets have gone 46-46 (+21.29 units). Pro players will look to keep the good vibes going tonight.
After analyzing Monday’s small nine-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed five MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m., 8:10 p.m., 10:05 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox
- Sharp angles: Over 9
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
In the most heavily bet game of the night, public bettors see a marquee pitching matchup between Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.42 ERA) and David Price (11-6, 4.17 ERA) and automatically think low-scoring game. Currently, 72% of bets are taking the Under. This is extremely rare. You almost never see such heavy Under betting (public bettors usually gravitate to Overs).
Despite the overwhelming Under betting, the total has remained frozen at 9. This indicates liability on the Over, with books reluctant to drop the line to 8.5 and hand out a better number to contrarian over backers. Wiseguys got down on the Over 9. An added bonus for Over backers: it’s a perfect night at Fenway, with wind blowing out to straightaway center.
Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins
- Sharp angle: Twins +113
- First pitch 8:10 p.m. ET
The Indians are 57-47 and laying only a short favorite price against the 48-56 Twins? Cleveland all day. However, despite receiving 66% of bets, the Tribe has fallen from -131 to -121. This indicates sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Twins. Goodfellas hammered the Twins +113 and +112, triggering a pair of profitable bet signals. Minnesota is a divisional dog with a high total, a profitable spot since 2005. The Twins also fit the Bet Labs system New Series, All Signs Point to Opponent (+180.37 units since 2005).
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Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics
- Sharp angles: Blue Jays +127
- First pitch 10:05 p.m. ET
Oakland has been one of the most profitable teams to bet on this season, going 61-46 for +17.20 units. Public bettors see the Athletics at home against a 48-56 Jays team and say easy win. But sharps are buying low on Toronto. The Jays enjoy a massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy: they’re getting only 28% of bets but 65% of dollars. Meanwhile, they’ve fallen from +133 to +127 since opening, signaling sharp reverse line movement. The Jays have also received three separate steam and reverse line moves.
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
- Sharp angle: Brewers +137
- First pitch 10:10 p.m. ET
Wiseguys have been cashing bigly on the Brew Crew as of late (Milwaukee just took three out of four from San Francisco). Tonight, the Beer Makers travel to Chavez Ravine to face the Dodgers. The Brewers are getting only of 31% bets but 44% of dollars, indicating smart money in their favor. They’ve also moved from +150 to +137. Why would the Brewers’ payout get smaller if 70% of bets are on the Dodgers? Because sharps hammered the Brewers +140, triggering market-wide reverse line movement.
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
- Sharp angle: Under 8
- First pitch 10:10 p.m. ET
Here’s a classic example of Pros vs. Joes disagreement with this NL West total. The over/under opened at 8 and 66% of bets taking the Over. Early Over betting from the public pushed the total up to 8.5. That’s when wiseguys pounced.
Pros all got down hard on the Under 8.5, triggering four separate steam and reverse line moves. This overload of sharp action caused the total to fall back down from 8.5 to 8. Sharps hammed the Under 8. This is notable because they still hit the Under even though they couldn’t get 8.5. This signals additional confidence in the Under.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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