MLB Sharp Report: Pros Doubling Down on Pirates-Phillies Moneyline, Over/Under

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Doubling Down on Pirates-Phillies Moneyline, Over/Under article feature image
Credit:

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bryce Harper

  • Sharp action is hitting Monday's short MLB slate, as the pros have made moves on Braves-Rockies (3:10 p.m. ET) and Phillies-Pirates (7:05 p.m.).
  • Sports Insights' Bet Signals and betting market percentages reveal which bets the pros are making.

Monday’s MLB slate may be short, but that doesn’t mean it hasn’t attracted its fair share of sharp action. In addition to the only afternoon start on schedule, sharps have also made moves on tonight’s Pirates-Phillies matchup, pouncing on three bets in total.


>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies

3:10 p.m. ET | Julio Teheran (8-8, 3.53 ERA) vs. Tim Melville (1-0, 1.29 ERA)

By the looks of the overall line movement, this game doesn’t appear to have much going for it. The Braves have moved from -140 to -143 behind 71% of bets. The Rockies have gone from +129 to +132. All seems normal.

That’s why it’s important to follow up with full line histories. Because while this line is barely off its opening number, it didn’t just get nudged by three cents since it opened this morning. In fact, the Braves were -153 favorites just hours ago.

Sharps caught wind of the line drifting off toward the public side and happily jumped on an inflated Rockies number, triggering two Sports Insights Bet Signals on Colorado at +138.

Also hinting at sharp action on the Rockies is that their 29% backing has generated 35% of actual money being wagered on the moneyline.

Sharp angle: Rockies (moved from +138 to +132)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies

7:05 p.m. ET | Joe Musgrove (8-12, 4.74 ERA) vs. Jason Vargas (6-6, 3.99 ERA)

One bet apparently wasn’t good enough for sharps in this cross-state National League matchup. They’ve hit both the moneyline and total, causing noteworthy line movement in both cases.

The earliest books to market actually had the Phillies in the -150 range, but most shops opened after an initial — probably sharp — move brought the line to -140.

Still, that number was deemed a bit too high.

The Phils are down to a consensus -125 despite receiving 78% of tickets, thanks to big money from sharp bettors. The 22% on Pittsburgh has accounted for 37% of actual dollars wagered, once again revealing how the bigger bettors — ones more likely to be pros — are playing the line.

The Pirates also triggered a Bet Signal at +128 to confirm that sharps are behind the line move.

As mentioned, that isn’t the only line move caused by smart money on this game. The total has also fallen by a half-run from 9.5 to 9 despite 50-50 betting on the total.

Theoretically, an even split should be a reason for sportsbooks to hold their numbers steady — unless, of course, one side is more respected or placing bigger wagers.

Both are true of this under.

Under bettors have been responsible for 78% of over/under money, and have triggered two more SI Bet Signals, making the sharp side crystal clear.

Sharp angle: Pirates (moved from +130 to +115), Under (moved from 9.5 to 9)