MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mets-Giants, 2 Other Thursday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mets-Giants, 2 Other Thursday Games article feature image

Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner

  • Professional bettors are getting down on 3 games tonight, headlined by Mets-Giants (9:45 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting Nationals-Braves (7:20 p.m. ET) and Brewers-Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Sports betting isn’t just about picking winners. It’s also about timing and shopping for the best line.

Last night was a perfect example. Wiseguys cashed their Diamondbacks play and lost their Phillies play. The final bet of the night was the Tigers-Indians under. Cleveland ended up winning 7-2. Sharps who pounced on the under 9.5 cashed while late bettors who had under 9 pushed. That’s the difference between a 2-1 night and a 1-1-1 night.

Overall, Wednesday night was a big night for chalk as favorites nearly swept the board.

⚾️ Favorites went 11-3 (+3.96u) in #MLB action yesterday. Only underdogs that won were Giants (+197), Mets (+165), and Orioles (+153).

— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 18, 2019

After analyzing Thursday’s 13-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a trio of MLB games.

>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Washington Nationals (50-44) at Atlanta Braves (58-39) 

7:20 p.m. ET | Stephen Strasburg (11-4, 3.46 ERA) vs. Kyle Wright (0-2, 7.07 ERA)
*Note: Julio Teheran was initially slated to start vs. the Nationals, but was scratched.

One look at the two starting pitchers and that’s all the betting public needs to know. Two studs with low ERAs. It has to be low-scoring game. Hammer the under to the moon.

But wiseguys are zigging while the public zags.

This NL East over/under opened at 9.5. Right off the bat, this total feels fishy. Why is it so high with a pair of aces facing off? Something doesn’t add up …

Currently 60% of bets are taking the under, but 67% of dollars are taking the over. This massive bet vs. dollar discrepancy signals a clear pros vs. Joes disagreement, with five-dollar casual wagers sweating the under but wiseguy dime bettors ($1000) banking on a high-scoring game.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked a pair of steam and reverse line moves on the over.

The weather is also providing a big edge to over bettors.

First off, the wind is blowing out to straightaway center field at 5 to 8 mph, which wiseguys hope turns a few warning-track fly ball outs into first-row home runs. Second, it’s going to be a scorcher in SunTrust Park tonight, with a game-time temperature of nearly 90 degrees.

According to our Bet Labs database, hot division overs with wind blowing out have won at a 55% clip since 2005.

Sharp angle: Over (contrarian line freeze at 9.5)

Milwaukee Brewers (50-47) at Arizona Diamondbacks (49-47) 

9:40 p.m. ET | Zach Davies (7-2, 2.89 ERA) vs. Merrill Kelly (7-9, 3.93 ERA)

This showdown in the desert is a tough one for the public. On the one hand, they see Yelich and Beer Makers at a pick’em price with a clear starting pitcher advantage. However, the Snakes are at home and they just scored 28 runs in two games to sweep a two-game set against the Rangers.

In a coin flip game between two teams with nearly identical records you might as well grab road dog Milwaukee because it has a more attractive price, right?

Wrong. Sharps have cashed the Snakes two nights in a row and they’re going back to the well tonight.

This game opened at a virtual pick’em, with the Brewers listed as slight -105 favorites and the Diamondbacks -103 underdogs. Currently 55% of bets are backing the Brew Crew, yet we’ve seen the line move away from Milwaukee (-105 to +100) and toward Arizona (-103 to -109). This is a clear sign of sharp reverse line movement with wiseguys getting down hard on the home team.

Sharps steamed Arizona at -108 and we haven’t tracked any conflicting moves on the Brewers, which means their support is almost entirely public.

The Snakes also match a pair of profitable Bet Labs systems. So far this season, favorites in “conference” games with high totals (9 or more) have won at a 63% clip for +39.6 units.

Unpopular favorites (receiving less than 50% of bets) have cashed 57.6% of their games in 2019, winning 7.9 units.

Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (moved from -103 to -109)

New York Mets (44-51) at San Francisco Giants (47-49) 

9:45 p.m. ET | Noah Syndergaard (7-4, 4.47 ERA) vs. Madison Bumgarner (5-7, 3.78 ERA) 

It’s a misconception that sharps and squares are always on opposite sides. Sure, pros love going contrarian so they can capitalize on public bias, pounce on mispriced lines and place themselves on the side of the house. But wiseguys won’t stubbornly lay off a play or go the other way just because they find themselves on the same side as the public.

Sharps are fearless. If they see an edge, they pounce regardless of betting percentages.

This game is a perfect example.

The total opened at a low 7. Currently 83% of bets and 92% of dollars are taking the over, indicating heavy public and pro betting. We’ve also tracked a big steam move on the over 7. This heavy one-siding action forced oddsmakers to juice up the over to -125. Some books have even moved to 7.5.

So far this season, low totals (7 to 8) in non-division games have gone 115-88 (56.7%), winning 21.69 units with a 10.1% ROI. Also, overs that rise a half run have cashed +18.98 units so far in 2019.

The wind is providing an over edge as well. It’s blowing out to left-center at a whopping 9-12 mph. When the wind blows out at 10 mph or more, overs have cashed +112.83 units since 2005.

Sharp angle: Over (Over 7/7.5)

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