MLB Tuesday Weather: A Counter-Intuitive Trend for Angels vs. Rangers
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports.
- Fifteen MLB games dot Tuesday's slate, and as one could expect, most of them have poor hitting conditions on this April evening.
- The Angels-Rangers game is the one exception, and looking at our historical data, we find an interesting Texas trend when looking at wind direction.
Fifteen baseball games — all at night. I believe this is a 2019 first. Unless you live in the southern part of the country, you probably know that April nights aren’t entirely pleasant. That is exemplified by tonight’s Weather Ratings, which are basically subpar across the board.
Luckily, we don’t really have any precipitation to worry about. A couple of ballparks have an outside chance of a rain shower, but delays and postponements look to be unlikely.
A Trip To The Lab
There’s something about Globe Life Park in Arlington. No, not in the same way that there’s something about Mary…
Globe Life, which will succumb to its terminal disease at the end of the season, is one of the best parks overall for under bettors when the wind is blowing in.
With that said, one would imagine that it’s also one of the best parks to bet the under when the wind is blowing in from right field. But it’s exactly the opposite.
Evidently, the wind has a lot of trouble making it past those right field bleachers, as overs have crushed in these situations. If you only look at games with temperatures of 70+ degrees, the ROI improves by 2%.
The two most common wind directions at the park are “in” and “from right” so you may want to take advantage of these trends before the park is dead and buried after the end of the 2019 season.
Highest Weather Ratings
- Angels at Rangers: 65
Weather Ratings are a proprietary number created by FantasyLabs, which are on a 0-100 scale, with 100 being the best hitting atmosphere and 0 being the best pitching atmosphere. Weather Rating takes into account temperature, wind speed, wind direction, stadium elevation, humidity and atmospheric pressure.
Ah yes, the Angels-Rangers game. The wind is blowing in from right field and the temperature will be in the mid-70s. Please see above for analysis on what that means.
This game is the only one of the slate with a Weather Rating north of 50, as we’ve regressed back into league-wide low ratings.
Lowest Weather Ratings
- Astros at Athletics: 19
- Indians at Mariners: 20
- Mets at Phillies: 24
The West Coast boasts typical crappy nighttime conditions, as you can expect to see Oakland and Seattle toward the bottom of the list on a regular basis throughout the season.
Philadelphia is another story, though, as Citizens Bank Park is capable of weather of all shapes and sizes. Once the summer months come along, it’s unlikely we’ll see Philly this low, but considering it’s still April, anything is possible.
With temps in the lower 60s and upper 50s, it’s not a terrible forecast on paper, but wind and other factors will be unfavorable for offense. The Mets-Phillies over/under has remained at 9 since opening.