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MLB Thursday Weather: Exceptional Hitting Conditions at Kauffman Stadium

May 16, 2019 11:20 AM EDT
Credit:

Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kauffman Stadium.

  • The weather in Kansas City is perfect for hitting, as winds are blowing out to center at 15 mph.
  • Needless to say, this has historically been a strong spot for taking overs and hitters in DFS.
  • The over has been quite popular in terms of bets and dollars, which has helped the total move from 10 to 10.5 since opening.

This afternoon, we have a terrific baseball game on our hands that nobody would care about if it weren’t for sports betting, as the Kansas City Royals host the Texas Rangers in the final game of their series (1:15 p.m. ET). Lance Lynn and Homer Bailey will battle it out to see who will take the “used to be pretty good five or six years ago, but are now washed up” crown.

High Winds

First things first: the wind at Kauffman is perfect for hitting. We have a 15-mph breeze blowing straight out to center for the duration of the game … just beautiful.

Per Bet Labs, games with winds of at least 10 mph blowing out have gone over 53.1% of the time historically, while games with winds of 15+ mph have gone over 54.1% of the time.

 

Weather Rating 

Per FantasyLabs Player Models, the Weather Rating, which combines wind, temperature, altitude and other atmospheric conditions, is a 79 out of 100. Needless to say, that is quite high, but it is exceptionally high for a game that’s not in Colorado or Texas.

Since 2014, this is the 78th game excluding Coors Field and Globe Life Park with a Weather Rating that high. For comparison’s sake, there have been 66 such games at Globe Life Park alone and a whopping 226 at Coors. Let’s just say the elevation helps.

For you DFS players out there, hitters in this spot have outperformed their DraftKings salary-based expectations by more than one point, while pitchers have underperformed by nearly three points per FantasyLabs’ Trends Tool.

Betting Activity

After opening between 9.5 and 10.5 yesterday, the over/under settled in at 10 across the market up until this morning, when it moved up to 10.5. It looks like plenty of folks have seen the forecast, as 79% of bets and 91% of the cash are on the over. There have since been some sharp indicators on under 10.5, but the total has yet to fall back to 10. If you’re one to fade the public and fade the weather, under 10.5 may not be a terrible spot.

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