Whittaker vs. Till Odds & Pick: ‘The Reaper’ Is Undervalued at UFC Fight Island

Robert Whittaker vs. Darren Till Odds 

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Former UFC middleweight champion Robert Whittaker headlines the final bout at Fight Island against the dangerous Darren Till this Saturday (10 p.m. ET on ESPN). Neither fighter has been in the octagon since 2019, but there's plenty at stake in the matchup.

Whittaker is hoping to get back in the title fight conversation at 185 pounds after losing his belt to current champ Israel Adesanya. Till is in his second fight in the middleweight division after defeating Kelvin Gastelum in November.

Robert Whittaker Odds History

Whittaker opened in the -130 range and the line hasn't moved to drastically in either direction at most books. Outside of his most recent fight with Adesanya, Whittaker's odds tend to move in his direction by closing.

Darren Till Odds History

Till's perfomances seem to run counter to where his odds close over his past five fights. In the two instances that he closed as the favorite (vs. Woodley and Masvidal), he ended up losing. Conversely, he's won as the underdog in the three other matches.

Tale of the Tape

Till will be the third southpaw that Whittaker has faced in his past five opponents. The two are also nearly identical in terms of height and reach — though Till has only fought as a middleweight once.

The Reaper has the advantage in significant strike differential (+1.07 to -0.62), but Till has the slight edge in striking accuracy and absorbs fewer strikes per minute.

Whittaker vs. Till Betting Pick

In Saturday's main event, I show value on the former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker (-130) as a small favorite against Darren Till.

Whittaker by KO/TKO (+240) offers some value — compared to a crowd projection at +131 — and this bout does seem likely to end inside of the distance nearly 70% of the time – presenting some value on the "No – Fight will go the distance" (-152).

Both men have defensive lapses, but Whittaker should be the man landing at a higher output with better efficiency and he also has the grappling advantage. Over the course of his career, he has nearly doubled-up Till in terms of significant strikes landed per minute (4.77 to 2.41) with a superior strike differential (+1.07 vs. -0.62).

The line has held fairly steady on this matchup since it opened, but underdog backers are banking on Till landing a clean left hand or some big left kicks to the body to stun Whittaker — who has sustained a lot of damage in firefights but may not be as chinny as most think, at age 29, coming off of a decent break since his knockout loss to Adesanya.

Before that loss, Whittaker was on a nine-fight win streak. He has multiple paths to victory in this bout, while I feel that Till does need to win inside of the distance, and I think that Whittaker's moneyline should be closer to -200 for Saturday.

The Pick: Robert Whittaker moneyline (-130)

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