The UFC's return to the Apex after a couple of months away isn't going as planned, with the original main event between Tatsuro Taira and Amir Albazi lost over the weekend as one of four cancelled or changed bouts.
That means we've got fairly fresh lines on a few of the 11 fights on the card, giving us an opportunity to grab some bets before the market pushes the lines around.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 108 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 108 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Tatsuro Taira (TBD) vs. Hyun Sung Park (TBD)
News on Sunday that Tatsuro Taira's main event matchup with Amir Albazi was off due to an issue on the Albazi side. On Monday, the replacement fight was revealed, elevating Hyun Sung Park from a matchup with Steve Erceg on next week's Apex card.
A three round matchup against a striker like Erceg and a five rounder against Taira are vastly different challenges. Taira is a high level grappler averaging nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes, and this is his third consecutive fight scheduled for five rounds.
While no betting lines are available at the time of publishing, I'm hoping that oddsmakers give this bout a somewhat close line. I'd bet Taira down to -250 if lines open in that range, as my expectation is they'll eventually close with Taira as a heavy favorite.
Verdict: Bet Taira to -250
Karol Rosa (-192) vs. Nora Cornolle (+160)
The last time Nora Cornolle fought we had to pay some juice to take her moneyline, but it ultimately proved the correct decision.
This time we're getting her at an underdog price against Karol Rosa, a line I expect her to cover easily. The French former kickboxer is 3-1 in the UFC with her only loss coming via split decision, and two of her three wins inside the distance.
Rosa has alternated wins and losses for her last seven fights, with two of the three wins in that time frame coming as either split or majority decisions. While Cornolle is beatable on the ground, Rosa doesn't have the grappling to fully exploit that weakness in her game.
We've seen the line move slightly towards Rosa already, so we can probably wait for an even better number. As it stands now, the +160 at DraftKings is the best line, but let's get greedy and see if we can find an even better one.
Verdict: Cornolle Undervalued (But Wait)
Rodolfo Viera (-205) vs. Tresean Gore (+170)
Tresean Gore is 2-3 in the UFC, with two knockout losses. Both of his wins have come via guillotine chokes against fighters who were outmatched on the ground — which certainly won't be the case against Rodolfo "The Black Belt Hunter" Viera.
A legendary grappler, Viera sports a 5-2 record with submissions in all five victories. He's never been knocked out, and should be able to get this one to the mat sooner rather than later.
I'd make him a much heavier favorite than the -205 at DraftKings implies, and other legal books already have his price well past that. Grab Viera now before his line moves even further, as it's likely to do throughout the week.
Verdict: Viera Undervalued
