Chris Duncan vs. Mateusz Rebecki Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Vegas 108 (Saturday, August 2)

Chris Duncan vs. Mateusz Rebecki Odds

Check out the Chris Duncan vs. Mateusz Rebecki prediction for UFC Vegas 108 on Saturday, August 2, with my betting preview and breakdown.

Much like the rest of the UFC Vegas 108 card, the co-main event is short on name value but long on potential excitement. Both Mateusz Rebecki and Chris Duncan are action fighters who don't see many judge's decisions, and the total in this one is set at just 1.5 rounds. The market is expecting violence early, with Rebecki lines as a roughly two-to-one favorite.

Here's my Duncan vs. Rebecki pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Mateusz Rebecki's last fight was one of the best fights of 2024, an absolute war against Myktybek Orolbai at a 160lbs catch weight. The narrative going in to that fight was that Rebecki would be potentially gunshy after taking a ton of damage in his previous outing.

That proved not to be the case, with Rebecki dealing tons of damage of his own this time and closing Orolbai's eye in the first round.

Rebecki also took plenty of damage in that one (largely due to a clash of heads) but wisely took a bit over nine months before stepping back in the cage. The knock on Rebecki heading into that fight was that his cardio was somewhat questionable, but his third-round rally eased some of the concern there.

From a skills perspective, Rebecki's A game is clearly his grappling. He's a three-time European BJJ champion with seven wins by submission in his pro MMA career. He's a much better wrestler than the majority of BJJ transplants into MMA, averaging almost four takedowns per 15 minutes.

He's adapted his grappling game very well to MMA, prioritizing control and damage over risky submission attempts. That will be important in a fight against another accomplished grappler like Duncan, as unsuccessful submission attempts can quickly turn into bottom position and lost rounds.

On the feet, Rebecki is effectively wild, as his grappling skills embolden him to throw heavily with no concern about takedowns from his opponents.

What he leaves himself open to instead is strikes from his opponents, who are often able to do damage after Rebecki misses with huge overhand lefts. He also carries his hands low, and is short for the division at 5'7".

That often leads to him losing the standing striking battle from a numbers perspective, but the massive shots landed by Rebecki when he does land are usually enough to secure him close rounds.

Duncan is typically more technical on the feet, preferring to keep his distance when he has the edge in height and reach. However, once he gets clipped he's more than willing to engage in a brawl.

While he has solid power, trading punches with Rebecki wouldn't be a wise idea. Duncan was knocked out in his original Contender Series appearance and has reacted poorly when being hit in other fights.

Duncan's two-fight winning streak is comprised of a pair of guillotine wins, which also feels like a long shot against Rebecki. The compact build of Rebecki means he has almost no neck that can be guillotined, as well as his own high-level grappling ability.

The best case scenario for Duncan is probably defending takedowns and outpointing Rebecki on the feet, perhaps capitalizing with a late finish if Rebecki punches or wrestles himself out in the process.

That somewhat narrow path is reflected in the betting line, which has Duncan as a moderate underdog.

Duncan vs. Rebecki Pick, Prediction

What I didn't mention yet is that both Duncan and Rebecki train — and live during camps — at American Top Team in Florida.

While they managed to separate their training times during the lead-up to this fight, they've certainly spent plenty of time together on the mats in the past. It's telling that Rebecki has called for this fight on multiple occasions. Having been in similar situations in my MMA career, training partners usually know who's likely to get the better of a matchup.

We also often see more cautious approaches from both fighters in matchups between teammates. They'll both be well aware of the strengths of their opponents, and perhaps subconsciously unwilling to leave any big openings.

I think Rebecki holds court as a favorite here, but with perhaps a slightly slower start than expected. To combine those ideas I'm creating a Same Game Parlay on DraftKings with Rebecki and over 4.5 minutes.

That takes his -205 moneyline down to -105, a nice way to get some extra value — though I wouldn't fault anyone for taking the favorite straight up.

Billy's Pick:Rebecki & Over 4.5 Minutes SGP -105 (DraftKings)