Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Abu Dhabi (Saturday, July 26)

Check out the Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, July 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.

Here's my Whittaker vs. de Ridder pick and prediction.

Robert Whittaker vs. Reinier de Ridder Odds

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, for a 12-fight card, featuring a showdown between former UFC middleweight champion Robert "The Reaper" Whittaker and former ONE middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion Reiner de Ridder ("RDR").

The Dutchman, de Ridder, enters his first UFC main event with a 3-0 record in the promotion, all by finish, including his recent upset TKO of top prospect Bo Nickal (as a +340 underdog), following submission wins over Kevin Holland (as a -120 favorite) and Gerald Meerschaert (closed -310).

While RDR enters his first UFC main event, he won the ONE Light Heavyweight title in a five-round decision in 2021. Still, Whittaker enters his 10th career main event or five-round fight, and should have a cardio edge in the championship rounds.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Abu Dhabi Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these middleweights. They should make their cage walks at approximately 5:45 p.m. ET (2:45 p.m. PT) on ABC on Saturday evening.

Here's my Whittaker vs. de Ridder pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Reiner de Ridder — who previously competed at 205 and 225 pounds in ONE — is the taller and longer fighter than Robert Whittaker (4" taller, 5" reach advantage) and should have a size and strength advantage over the Aussie, who began his career at Welterweight.

Still, Whittaker should be a much quicker athlete than de Ridder, who is a bit plodding given his size. Moreover, Whittaker is accustomed to navigating a height and reach discrepancy at middleweight, especially in his matchups against Israel Adesanya (6'4, 80" reach), but also more recently in the same arena in Abu Dhabi against Ikram Aliskerov (3" reach discrepancy):

While de Ridder can compete on his feet, grappling is his preferred game plan. And while Whittaker historically has shown excellent takedown defense (81% career) and the ability to consistently scramble back to his feet after takedowns – rarely getting controlled for significant stretches of his fights (career 52% control rate) – he did struggled with the size and physicality in the grappling against both Dricus Du Plessis at Khamzat Chimaev; both of whom finished Whittaker on the mat.

RDR was able to upset Nickal by denying the grappling and keeping the fight standing, where he proved to be the more polished and durable striker. His UFC debut against Gerald Meerschaert wasn't a great look — a slow and sloppy fight — but the Kevin Holland matchup probably has more applicability here; RDR proved too strong and physical for Holland from top position, and its possible that he could impose that physicality against Whitakker, in the same way that Du Plessis did from top position.

Still, while Du Plessis does have a clear path to victory on the mat, Whittaker has more ways to win the fight, in my opinion, whether by resisting the grappling early and finishing a tiring RDR, or winning cleaner minutes toward a decision throughout the fight.

Whittaker has proven himself an incredibly efficient striker (+1.3 differential per minute at range) against far superior striker than RDR (+1.9 differential per minute) whose stats are skewed by a limited sample in stylistically friendly matchups. I'd expect Whittaker to run away with the significant strike count in a 25-minute fight, given his superior speed and movement. Unless RDR finishes the fight early, I'd expect Whittaker to rally and win the final three rounds of this contest.

RDR showed poor cardio the one time he was extended to a fifth round, ultimately ending his rematch against Aung La Nsang on the bottom, clearly exhausted. But it's his rematch loss with Anatoly Malykhin from March 2024 that stands out; de Ridder refused to get up from the mat and quit from exhaustion in the third round:

As a result, I like Whittaker live anytime after Round 1 if his price improves. I'd expect de Ridder to land and consolidate a takedown during one of the first two rounds of this fight, and would look to live bet Whittaker after that round.

If RDR doesn't consolidate takedowns in separate rounds or finish the fight inside ten minutes, I expect Whittaker to pull away in the minutes down the stretch, if not finish the fight himself in the championship rounds.

Whittaker vs. de Ridder Pick, Prediction

I projected Robert Whittaker as a -194 favorite (66% implied) in this matchup and would bet his moneyline up to -178 (64% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my projection.

My model aims to fade public perception, and de Ridder is a popular underdog selection this week, being picked to win the fight around 48% of the time on average, compared to market odds of around 43-44% implied.

I don't project value on the total or the goes to decision prop (projected +207, listed +205), but I do show a slight edge on Whittaker to win by KO/TKO (projected +166, listed +180) or inside the distance (projected +141, listed +150).

And to reiterate, I would live bet Whittaker if his price improves anytime after Round 1.

Sean's Pick:  Robert Whittaker (-145 at BetMGM) | Robert Whittaker Live Anytime after Round 1