Neil Magny vs. Elizeu Zaleski Odds
| Magny Odds | +170 |
| Zaleski Odds | -205 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-180/+140) |
| Location | UFC Apex Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Vegas 108 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Vegas 108 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Neil Magny vs. Elizeu Zaleski prediction for UFC Vegas 108 on Saturday, August 2, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Two veterans of the sport will clash on Saturday as 37 year-old Neil Magny takes on the 38 year-old Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos. Both men find themselves at a crossroads in their career, each having just one victory in their last four octagon appearances. It may sound simple, but handicapping this fight correctly may just come down to which fighter’s skills have diminished more to this point. Given the current odds on the moneyline, I have little confidence in Dos Santos covering his price tag outside of a quick knockout or submission.
Here's my Magny vs. Zaleski pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Magny | Zaleski | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 29-14 | 25-9-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:16 | 11:43 |
| Height | 6'3" | 5'11" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 80" | 73" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 8/03/1992 | 12/11/1986 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.43 | 4.26 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.48 | 3.52 |
| SS Defense | 51% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.12 | 0.75 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 20% |
| TD Def | 53% | 68% |
| Submission Avg | 0.2 | 0.5 |
Let’s begin with the most experienced welterweight in the UFC, Neil Magny. Magny has arguably taken on the most difficult strength of schedule in the entire sport over the previous three years.
The UFC took his role as gatekeeper seriously, as they have consistently matched him up with nearly every top prospect in the welterweight division. There are an abundance of fighters who would have suffered the same results against the exact competition Magny has faced. These losses have certainly diminished his durability, as the damage and years have begun to add up, but it wasn't too long ago Magny was able to pull off the upset in wins over Mike Malott and Geoff Neal.
Magny’s style presents a difficult task for anybody who fails to take him out by knockout or submission. Magny has exactly one defeat by decision over the last 12 years. He is going to be in his opponent’s face, looking for any way to wear them down. Oftentimes pushing his opponent against the cage, draining their energy and simultaneously controlling the pace of the bout.
Magny’s seven-inch reach advantage should pay dividends on Saturday against Dos Santos. In Dos Santos’ last appearance in the octagon, Chidi Njokuani was able to land 76% of significant strikes he attempted when the fight was playing out at distance.
Magny should be able to fight behind his jab and use his length to frustrate the more explosive Dos Santos. When Dos Santos does press forward, look for Magny to clinch him up and push him backwards.
The Njokuani matchup for Dos Santos seemed like an easy one to project a grapple-heavy game plan for the BJJ black belt, but he banked just over one minute of control time in five takedown attempts. The game plan for Dos Santos in round one for this fight is anyone's guess, but I do not believe he has the capability at this stage of his career to push a pace for the duration of the fight.
Magny will also enjoy a decided stamina advantage in this fight. From my perspective, there have been signs of decline when it comes to Dos Santos’ cardio.
Of course, there is no guarantee the fight will last long enough to see those concerns come to fruition given how dangerous of a finisher Dos Santos is, but I do believe Magny would control the 3rd round at a pretty high clip if the fight goes past ten minutes.
Magny vs. Zaleski Pick, Prediction
There will be no point in this fight in which you will feel totally comfortable with a Magny ticket in hand. Dos Santos will attempt some wild combinations and strikes that if landed cleanly can end the night in an instant.
With that said, the decline of Magny may be exaggerated given the knockouts he suffered were against elite level fighters squarely in the primes of their careers.
It’s also worth noting oddsmakers have implied a 64% chance this fight goes over 2.5 rounds (-180). They are also not expecting Dos Santos to put away the veteran Magny with ease. Magny is 13-3 in fights that have gone to decision during his UFC tenure.
I am willing to take my chances, at this price, that Neil Mangy can survive the early going and grind his way to the scorecards against a fighter who is just 2-2-1 in fights that have gone the full 15 minutes over the last five years.
John's Pick: Neil Magny +170 (Caesars)
