Read our UFC predictions for the Saturday, July 26 event live from the Etihad Center in Abu Dhabi, UAE. The preliminary card airs on ESPN+ starting at noon Eastern Time, with the main card starting at 2:30 ET on ABC.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their four favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Abu Dhabi Moneyline Projections
UFC Abu Dhabi Prop Projections
UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bets
Carlos Leal vs. Muslim Salikhov
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:30 p.m. ET
Carlos Leal will hope to right his unfortunate luck at the Etihad Arena, after getting robbed in his UFC debut on short notice against Rinat Fakhredtinov at UFC 308; all three judges scored the contest for Fakhredtinov (including one 30-27 scorecard), but all 16 media scorecards and 91% of fans had the bout for Leal (11 of the 16 media scorecards and 54% of fans thought that Leal won all three rounds.)
I don't expect Leal to need the judges on Saturday in his bout against Muslim Salikhov, a Wushu Sanda specialist ten years his senior.
Leal should have significant advantages in speed, durability, and output, and I expect him to walk Salikhov down, cut off the cage, and finish him with boxing combinations against the fence.
Salikhov is a powerful fighter and possesses dangerous spinning attacks at range. Still, if Leal can crowd him in the pocket, the speed differential should be overwhelming, and Leal is an excellent combination puncher.
While Salikhov has won his two most recent fights, he's 41 years old – nearing the end of his career – and has struggled against younger opponents who can box (Randy Brown and Li Jingliang) while holding his own against the old guard of the division, especially in fights where he can occasionally mix in a takedown; however Leal showed excellent takedown defense against Fakhredtinov (denied 17 of 19 attempts; permitted 3:14 control time).
You can use Leal as a parlay piece (projected -765, listed -520) up to -700, but I prefer his odds to win inside the distance (projected -300, listed -165) and would ladder that wager with same-game parlays containing Leal and the Under 2.5 Rounds (-137 at BallyBet) and Under 1.5 Rounds (+148). I'm stacking each at a quarter unit.
If you want to add a fourth rung to the ladder, you can add Leal to win in Round 1 (+240) down to +200.
The Pick: SGP: Carlos Leal and Under 1.5 Rounds (+148 at BallyBet) | SGP: Carlos Leal & Under 2.5 Rounds (-137 at BallyBet) | Carlos Leal wins Inside the Distance (-165 at BallyBet)
Saus Nurmagomedov vs. Bryce Mitchell
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:45 p.m. ET
I've written a lot about Bryce Mitchell's bantamweight debut this weekend, but it truly is my favorite bet on the slate.
"Thug Nasty" was finished in two of his final three bouts at featherweight, and is looking to revive his once-bright career in a new weight class. While being at a size disadvantage was potentially part of the issue for Mitchell, there's a bigger problem — he's not getting better.
Mitchell is effectively self-trained, conducting training camps out of his barn at home in Arkansas. The best training partner he has is 0-2 UFC fighter AJ Cunningham, who also happens to be his cousin.
With the lack of dangerous partners who can push him, Mitchell doesn't have much opportunity to improve on his defensive skills. He's very effective when fights are going his way, with dominant top pressure and solid wrestling, but lacks the ability to weather the storm when his opponents turn up the pressure.
Said Nurmagomedov will certainly do just that. A dynamic striker, especially with his kicks, Nurmagomedov will have plenty of opportunities to hurt Mitchell throughout this fight. Nurmagomedov also has a nasty front head choke that he's used to submit wrestlers who dared shoot for takedowns on him — which is the same scenario that led to Mitchell's loss against Jean Silva.
The knock on Nurmagomedov is that he tends to fade later in fights, which could be especially problematic against Mitchell. For that reason, I'm taking Nurmagomedov to win inside the distance at +225, as I'd make that the majority of his win condition.
The Pick: Nurmagomedov Inside the Distance +225 (DraftKings)
Assu Almabayev vs. Jose Ochoa
John LanFranca, Contributor
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:45 p.m. ET
It is very difficult not to hold Jose Ochoa’s future outlook in high regard, but this is a poor matchup for him. Asu Almabayev is a relentless wrestler with a grappling and experience edge in this fight that I expect him to press from the early going.
Almabayev averages over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes and possesses the ability to control positions on the mat as well as any flyweight in the UFC. While Almabayev isn’t dangerous while the fight is playing out on the feet, his striking style is effective in limiting damage as he is quite defensively sound.
His opponents have to constantly worry about over-extending themselves because Almabayev is so skilled at neutralizing his opponents' aggression with the threat of the takedown.
Ochoa is an extremely aggressive striker, and in his last bout against Cody Durden, he unleashed a barrage of kicks before getting taken down twice in the opening frame. His kicking attack will not be effective on Saturday, as it will open up too many chances for Almabayev to grab a leg and drag him to the mat.
While Durden is a good grappler, he is not on the level of Almabayev. Ochoa’s fight against Durden was not long ago, just six weeks ago on June 14th, and he obviously was not planning on getting back into the cage this soon. I do not expect him to suddenly have the ability to avoid the takedown often enough to create the type of fight he needs to get his hand raised.
Ochoa may be a future star, but I expect Almabayev to grind out a decision win here. I really like the value on the Almabayev moneyline in this spot.
The Pick: Asu Almabayev -120 (FanDuel )
