Mike Perry vs. Mickey Gall Odds, Pick & Prediction: Where Is the Betting Value In Saturday’s Co-Main Event?

Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Mike Perry.

  • The updated UFC Fight Night betting odds list Mike Perry (-286) as the betting favorite over underdog Mickey Gall (+225) tonight.
  • Perry's odds have moved down slightly since earlier today from -315. Is he the right side to bet in the co-main event?
  • Sean Zerillo details where there may be some betting value in this matchup.

Saturday’s Co-Main event between welterweights Mike Perry and Mickey Gall is a matchup of two of the UFC’s more interesting characters. Perry (6-6 in the UFC) is coming off back-to-back losses and recently scrapped his entire coaching team to have his girlfriend in his corner.

Gall (5-2 in the UFC) is one of the more outspoken young fighters in the UFC telling mmafighting.com, “I think it’s one of the dumbest fighters versus one of the smartest,” in regard to his matchup with Perry.

Perry enters the matchup with significant odds to win at -286 while Gall is a +225 underdog.


UFC FIGHT NIGHT PROMO! Bet Dustin Poirier at +200 odds instead of -220 in Main Event


Tale of the Tape

Mike Perry Mickey Gall
Record 13-6 6-2
Avg. Fight Time 10:10 7:09
Height 5’10” 6’2″
Weight (pounds) 171 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach (inches) 71″ 74″
Stance Orthodox Switch
Date of birth 9/15/91 1/22/92
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.27 2.22
SS Accuracy 47% 43%
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.50 3.22
SS Defense 57% 43%
Take Down Avg 0.61 1.50
TD Acc 41% 38%
TD Def 70% 44%
Submission Avg 0.0 2.7

Perry vs. Gall Betting Pick

Diehard MMA fans tend to roll their eyes when analysts refer to a fight as a “classic striker vs. grappler matchup,” but that is the only way to describe Saturday’s co-main event.

Perry has 13 career victories, with 11 by knockout, while Gall has six career victories, with five by submission.

Perry has lost five of his past seven fights, however, including three of his last four — which makes his status as a significant favorite extra concerning, considering that he recently left his gym, and his girlfriend will be his lone corner representative on Saturday.

Gall’s striking is improving, but he is at a significant power and speed disadvantage against Perry, and he will look to take the fight to the ground (38% takedown accuracy) as soon as he can find an opening. Still, Perry has solid takedown defense (70%), and he excels at getting back to his feet.

Perry lands at a higher volume (+2.05 strikes per minute) than Gall, so he benefits the longer that he can keep the fight standing — regardless of his power advantages. Still, if Gall can keep him at bay with leg-kicks before dragging the fight to the mat multiple times, he can pull a submission, or grind out a decision.

Perry by KO/TKO/DQ (-159) is lined appropriately, compared to the crowd projection at -163 (62%), as is Gall by submission (+400) compared to a forecast at +426 (19%).

The fight is -360 (implied 78%) to finish inside of the distance, but the crowd would make that line closer to -735 (88%).

Under 1.5 rounds (-115) is worth some consideration, but I could see this fight play out in a variety of ways. I’ll likely stay away from betting this close matchup.

The Pick

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