NASCAR at Dover Odds, Picks: There’s Value on the Chevys at the Drydene 400


Matthew O’Haren-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Alex Bowman.

Oct 06, 2019, 12:02 AM EDT

The second round of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) playoffs kicks off at Dover International Speedway. The “Monster Mile” is a steeply banked, 1-mile oval with a concrete surface that features a modest incident rate of 20.1% since 2013. Notably, that number reduces to 14.8% during the seven high-downforce races in that time frame. That includes a tame race earlier this year where only three back-marker cars suffered major problems.

Track history plays a strong role in my statistical model, which is likely due to the fact that Dover is such a unique track. Additionally, weighing the high downforce era improves the out-of-sample predictive power of my model, so it gives extra weight to the 2013-2015 races, plus the first race of 2019.

My statistical model this weekend consists of the following data points:

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