NASCAR odds list Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) as the clear favorite for Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT) at Sonoma Raceway, and for good reason.
SVG, who has won two of the three races on road courses, like Sonoma, this season, sits at +105 NASCAR odds at DraftKings heading into today's race.
He is followed by Kyle Larson (+700), Chase Elliott (+850), Tyler Reddick (+1200), Michael McDowell (+1200) and AJ Allmendinger (+1200).
When it comes to my favorite NASCAR pick for Sonoma, I'm bypassing the outright market and am instead zeroing in on one matchup that's a headscratcher in my mind.
NASCAR Odds, Best Bet Pick for Sonoma
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Sonoma has been good to Daniel Suarez in the Next Gen car.
Over the past three races at this circuit, Suarez has posted the eighth-best driver rating, the ninth-best average running position and a win back in 2022.
On the other hand, Denny Hamlin has had all kinds of problems at Sonoma in the Next Gen, finishing 31st in 2022, crashing out in 2023 and blowing an engine on lap 2 last season.
But what really makes me bullish on Suarez in this matchup is how they both paced in practice on Saturday.
Despite running in the much slower Group 1, Suarez was actually faster than Hamlin in five-lap average speed and only one spot behind the No. 11 Toyota in 10-lap average.
Further, Suarez qualified just three places behind Hamlin, so I can understand why this matchup looks closer on paper than it truly is based on both drivers' track histories and needing to adjust for when they both hit the track in practice.
In my mind Suarez should be the favorite here, but DraftKings has him priced at -105 against Hamlin — a price I'm investing in for Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma.
NASCAR Pick: Daniel Suarez (-105) over Denny Hamlin — DraftKings
