There are a lot of unknowns as NASCAR heads to Dover Motor Speedway for today's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 (2 p.m. ET, TNT).
Rain washed away both practice and qualifying, meaning the starting order will be set by NASCAR's metric used to determine the qualifying order and groups. With no practice, drivers will have made no laps heading into the race, giving us no practice data to work with.
That means most of our analysis will have to come from our pre-race assessment, which involves evaluating how drivers perform at the unique 1-mile, steeply banked concrete track.
To build a sample size, we can also pull in comparable tracks. Based on my analysis of driver-by-driver average running position and driver rating data in the Next Gen Era, the comparable tracks are Nashville, Kansas, and Charlotte, with Las Vegas at a lower tier. Every other non-drafting oval can be put into an "overall form" category.
Goodyear is also bringing a brand new tire to Dover, designed to lay down rubber on the concrete surface, which will be picked back up by the tires under yellow conditions. That'll move the optimal racing line around quite a bit.
Dover has also moved to mid-July from its late-April or early-May date of years past. It'll be hotter than in previous years, which will make things more slick as well.
All together, it makes me like "wheelmen" a bit more, leaving one clear value left in today's field on what is a light betting card with so much uncertainty.
Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 Best Bets for Dover
Since qualifying was washed out, Noah Gragson will start nearly shotgun on the field, firing off from 36th out of 37 drivers. That deep starting position lengthened his top-10 odds from 11-1 midweek at FanDuel to 12-1 at present at BetMGM, despite not having turned a lap.
Yes, starting position matters, but over 400 miles and 400 laps, it didn't change Gragson's top-10 odds appreciably for me.
My model has Gragson at 13.5% to finish 10th or better, which is well above his 7.7% implied odds at 12-1.
Gragson had one of his best races of the year last year at Dover, qualifying fifth and finishing sixth while posting the 10th-best average running position. In addition, Gragson has fared well at similar tracks, finishing 14th at Kansas and 10th at Charlotte, so there is hope for him in this intermediate package to have a run near or at the back half of the top 10.
Since I have him at closer to +650, I love this +1200 price tag. To leave some room for all the uncertainty, I wouldn't bet this below +900, but that's still 10% implied odds, leaving us with a 3.5% edge based on my model even at that number.
The Bet: Noah Gragson Top-10 Finish (+1200 at BetMGM) | Bet to: +900
