NASCAR returns to Atlanta for the Quaker State 400 (7:00 p.m. ET, TNT), racing at the newly renamed EchoPark Speedway for the second time in 2025.
EchoPark is a 1.5-mile drafting track, and at drafting tracks, unpredictability is the name of the game. There have been seven races at EchoPark under its current configuration, and by using pre-race data available to us, even the best statistical models have only been able to squeeze out, on average, around 13% of the variance in finishing position, leaving a full 87% unexplained from data like track history, drafting track history, and current performance overall.
When that's the case, it's best to size down and sprinkle a few long shots and hope they hit.
That's exactly what I'm doing today. I'll throw a few bucks on some longshot manufacturer bets, and hope one hits.
I'll be fully relying on my model to show us where certain drivers have a better chance of finishing higher in the order than their betting odds imply, thanks to the random nature of these races.
EchoPark Speedway: Quaker State 400 Best Bets
By manufacturer, here are the odds I have for each driver finishing as the tops in their camp, compared to their betting odds.
Chevrolet
I'm fine betting both of the drivers I list below and agree with my model.
Alex Bowman
- My odds: 10% (+900 fair value)
- DraftKings: +1500
Austin Dillon
- My odds: 4.7% (+2020 fair value)
- DraftKings: +3000
Ford
I'm fine betting on both of the blue ovals my model finds as value, and definitely agree with it.
Just be aware that it's going to be awfully hard to beat the Team Penske trio of Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Austin Cindric.
That said, three of seven Atlanta races had finishing results resembling pure chaos, three had about 25% predictability, and one was in between.
For one of these to hit, you're hoping for a bit more chaos, but they can still hit even with a bit more of an orderly finish.
Ryan Preece
- My odds: 10.0% (+900 fair value)
- DraftKings: +1400
Noah Gragson
- My odds: 6.5% (+1440 fair value)
- DraftKings: +2200
Toyota
There are only nine Toyotas in the field, and my model doesn't value Denny Hamlin much here, and on drafting tracks in general, where he's struggled to replicate his form from previous generations of cars. Hamlin has no finish better than fourth, just two top fives, and five top 10 in 21 drafting track starts.
That opens up value on four drivers by my model.
Tyler Reddick
- My odds: 17.6%% (+470 fair value)
- DraftKings: +600
Chase Briscoe
- My odds: 11.5% (+775 fair value)
- DraftKings: +850
Erik Jones
- My odds: 9.4% (+960 fair value)
- DraftKings: +1600
Riley Herbst
- My odds: 5.4% (+1765 fair value)
- DraftKings: +2000
Summary
Be sure to size your bet right so that if one of the drivers in each camp hits, you'll profit. This is most important with the Toyota camp, where the model is on four drivers.
If you are a $10 per unit bettor, you could divide your $10 unit as $4 on Reddick, $3 on Briscoe, $1.65 on Jones, and $1.35 on Herbst to get a profit between $18 to $18.5 dollars no matter which of these four is the top Toyota driver.
And if you shop around, you may be able to find even better prices.
