Three NBA Prop Bets for Sunday Night: Simmons Over/Under 16.5 Points?
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Sunday is supposed to be a day of rest, but we’ll never take a break from looking to turn a profit. The FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a handful of potentially exploitable props on today’s slate, including one from the marquee game between the Bucks and 76ers. There are currently 12 games with a Bet Quality of at least eight out of 10 despite.
Here are three bets that I have my eye on.
Pelicans PG Jrue Holiday under six assists (-114)
7 p.m. ET
The Pelicans have reworked their lineup after losing DeMarcus Cousins to an injury, and one of the biggest changes has been increased playing time for Rajon Rondo. He’s seen at least 32 minutes in three straight games, and if that continues, it will have a negative impact on Holiday from an assist perspective. Holiday’s assist percentage has decreased by 6.3 percent when sharing the court with Rondo this season, and as a result, Holiday has had six assists or fewer in two of his past three games. Today’s game against the Mavericks should also be a bit slower than the Pelicans’ past few games, with Dallas currently ranking tied for 26th in pace.
Raptors C Jonas Valanciunas under 12 points (-115)
6 p.m. ET
Valanciunas has not been playing much for the Raptors recently, seeing 22 minutes or fewer in each of his past three games. He’s had no more than 12 points in any of those games, and that’s with shooting a combined 9-of-12 from the field over his past two. Today’s matchup should also be a difficult one for Valanciunas, with the Hornets currently allowing the eighth-fewest points per game to the center position.
76ers PF Ben Simmons under 16.5 points (-115)
8 p.m. ET | ESPN
Simmons has had a tremendous rookie season but it hasn’t been due to his ability to score the basketball. While he can do that — he’s averaged 16.6 points per game — much of his value comes from his ability to do everything else. Today’s matchup with the Bucks should be tough on him from a scoring perspective. The Bucks have ranked in the top six in defensive efficiency since firing Jason Kidd on Jan. 22, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 104.75 represents a decrease of nearly three points when compared to their season average (107.5). Simmons also has a tough individual matchup against Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has graded out as the second-best wing defender in the league per Defensive Real Plus/Minus.
Top photo: Ben Simmons; credit: Bill Streicher- USA Today Sports