In the aftermath of the ̶m̶a̶s̶s̶i̶v̶e̶ ̶u̶n̶b̶e̶l̶i̶e̶v̶a̶b̶l̶e̶ ̶i̶n̶s̶a̶n̶e̶ brain-breaking trade of Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday for Anthony Davis, we have to try and figure out how exactly to adjust where these teams should be in the market.
I use various metrics to project a power rating for both teams and set an expected spread. Here's where I am with manual adjustments to both teams following what will forever be known as The Trade.
Matt Moore's NBA Power Ratings Adjustments
Los Angeles Lakers (-1)
The Lakers won the trade; there can be no doubt of that unless you're talking to Mavericks GM Nico Harrison.
However, in the short term, figuring out the actual impact for the Lakers is difficult. For starters… they have no viable starting center. If they do not complete a trade before Thursday's deadline, their starting center will be Jaxson Hayes.
Yikes.
(There's been some conversation that LeBron could play five. To which I say, "Ha, no. He's 40. He'll break into pieces.")
The Lakers have made it clear they want to be patient with building around Doncic, knowing they have him for the next decade.
With Anthony Davis and Max Christie going out and Luka Doncic going in, I have the Lakers actually getting worse on the spread based on replacement value. That shouldn't surprise you, the Lakers have guards and forwards who can handle the ball and Luka's value is a little limited due to his availability issues.
The Lakers are 13th in schedule-adjusted offensive rating. So they're not bad, but not great either. Doncic should raise that by his individual scoring and playmaking talent. He doesn't have a center to run pick and roll with right now, however, so that's going to be an issue.
Defensively, losing AD matters in talent, but bear in mind that the Lakers' defense is basically the same with and without Doncic. On the eye test, losing AD should be catastrophic for their defense, and losing Max Christie should be a net negative for their defense. But on paper, it's largely pretty neutral.
Doncic is a bad defender — that's pretty obvious. But has he been better this year? His defensive numbers, both on a team and individual advanced level, are pretty promising.
The argument is that the Mavericks built a defense to put Doncic in the best defensive position, and the Lakers built a roster to put Davis in the worst defensive position. Both are probably true. But also, if Davis is the DPOY-level guy people have praised him as, the floor should probably be higher with him on the floor.
But again, the replacement options are the issue. The Lakers have almost nothing behind AD (for now, a trade can change that).
The objective value I put on it is that the Lakers are 1.66 points worse in power rating. The impact of Doncic being healthy, motivated, and engaged makes me lower that to 1.0.
Do I think the Lakers lost the deal? Of course not. But this is about what you gained and lost. Also, Doncic may be actually better offensively with the Lakers and more impactful next to LeBron James and with the shooters LA has, even if the defense is worse.
For now, I'm downgrading the Lakers by a point.
Dallas Mavericks (+2)
I'm upgrading the Mavericks by 2.0 points in power rating once AD returns from injury. The irony of Mavs GM Nico Harrison saying he made the move because of defense is that the Mavericks were already a great frontcourt defensive team. Dallas is second in opponent field goal percentage at the rim. They get better with the addition of AD, but you can only get so much better.
The Mavericks were built around Luka and Kyrie Irving, so the team's construct doesn't make much sense for now. They don't have enough creation. However, Irving and AD in pick and roll is a pretty great and simple bread and butter sequence everyone can play around. You don't need a lot of bells and whistles to make that work.
I think the Mavs' offensive ceiling was cut by about a third. With Doncic and Irving on the floor, the Mavericks scored 118 points per 100 possessions. That's excellent, but also not as good as you'd imagine.
Wait, You’re Upgrading the Mavericks and Downgrading the Lakers?!
Let's be clear: the Lakers won this trade by miles and miles.
They got a transcendent superstar, a player who has been the consensus preseason MVP favorite the last three seasons and will usher them into the next decade, negating their owed draft pick debt and answering all questions about what happens after LeBron retires.
I feel pretty confident that the Lakers will win multiple titles with Doncic during his tenure. The history of the Lakers suggests this is how it will work out.
But in the immediate, the Mavericks are a more complete team. The Lakers can use their assets to complete this roster this week and pull back even or above. They will win in the long run. But Dallas is better right now from a pure power rating perspective.
The Mavericks also added two rotation players while giving up one. Maxi Kleber is out indefinitely after foot surgery; Markieff Morris wasn't in the rotation. The Lakers gave up two rotation players and two starters while adding one.
The Mavericks got better in this move by the context of this season.
But even with that hollow victory, I would ask, at what cost?