The race for the next NBA MVP revolves around one central question: Can anyone truly challenge Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder in their quest to repeat last season’s glory?
The standings suggest it will be extremely difficult to slow down the reigning champions and their star guard as they chase another title. Still, Oklahoma City's elimination in the NBA Cup semifinals added an unexpected dose of drama and suspense to the Most Valuable Player conversation.
Polymarket, a marketplace that blends traditional financial mechanisms with cutting-edge prediction systems, allows users to predict who will win the 2025-2026 NBA MVP Award. So, let's take a look at some of those predictions and dive into the NBA MVP Award odds.
NBA MVP Odds
Odds are via Polymarket and update every hour.
The league’s leading scorer in terms of total points, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, sits atop the MVP odds. The guard has powered an Oklahoma City team that comfortably leads the Western Conference and is on pace to challenge the 2016-17 Warriors’ all-time wins record (73–9).
If any team appears capable of pushing the Thunder in the West, it’s the Denver Nuggets, led by Nikola Jokic. The Serbian superstar, who leads the NBA in rebounds and assists, ranks second on the MVP odds board. He has already captured the award three times and remains firmly in the race.
Rounding out the top tier of contenders is Luka Doncic, the league’s leader in points per game. Injuries cost the Slovenian several games earlier in the season, but since moving from Dallas to Los Angeles, his brilliance has remained intact — and perhaps even elevated — alongside LeBron James and Austin Reaves.
The award appears likely to come from this trio, though there is still a long road to the end of the regular season, and several challengers are hoping to make a late push. One of those challengers is Victor Wembanyama, who briefly led the Polymarket MVP market in late October after scoring 40 points in San Antonio’s dominant 125–92 win over Dallas.
Just behind him is Cade Cunningham, who ranks second in the NBA in assists per game. While his production dipped slightly in December compared to November, his MVP odds are being buoyed by the Detroit Pistons’ strong record.
The New York Knicks lifted the NBA Cup, but that success hasn’t translated into MVP momentum for Jalen Brunson.
At under 1%, a large group of long shots includes LeBron James — a four-time MVP who may be entering the final chapter of his legendary career — two-time MVP Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors), and Cooper Flagg (Dallas Mavericks), who is emerging as a frontrunner for Rookie of the Year.
What is Polymarket?
Different than a traditional sportsbook, Polymarket allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, and elections.
