The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Kansas State Wildcats in Kansas City, MO, as part of the Hall of Fame Classic. Tip-off is set for approximately 9:30 p.m. ET on Peacock.
Mississippi State is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. The total is set at 161.5 points.
Here’s my Mississippi State vs. Kansas State predictions and college basketball picks for November 20, 2025.
Mississippi State vs. Kansas State Prediction
My Pick: Mississippi State -2 (Play to -3.5)
My Mississippi State vs. Kansas State best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mississippi State vs. Kansas State Odds
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 161.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
- Mississippi State vs. Kansas State spread: Mississippi State -3.5
- Mississippi State vs. Kansas State over/under: 161.5 points
- Mississippi State vs. Kansas State moneyline: Mississippi State -170, Kansas State +145
Mississippi State vs. Kansas State College Basketball Betting Preview
Mississippi State Basketball
Entering the year, I was all over the fade Mississippi State train. The preseason numbers just didn't make sense for a team with so many questions.
The Bulldogs began the campaign 28th in KenPom, and three games in, they dropped to 46th. I'm more in on Mississippi State and the prices we'll see with for it now.
The philosophy for Chris Jans is to let his stud Josh Hubbard cook, and if he misses, grab the offensive rebound. Hubbard could dominate this lousy Kansas State on-ball defense with his savvy handling and quickness. He averages 22.5 points on 44% shooting and dishes out 5.7 assists a night.
The Bulldogs atone for their lack of secondary scoring options by grabbing offensive boards at a 42% clip.
Jans tends to have a lot of good rebounders, and he has five who record five-plus boards per game this season. Achor Achor, a former Kansas State Wildcat, leads the team, while freshman Sergej Macura and seven-footer Quincy Ballard protect the glass.
Plus, Shawn Jones Jr. is the X-factor here. He can slow Kansas State star PJ Haggerty down, and he's also an elite positional rebounder. I expect him to play a pivotal role for the Bulldogs.
Turnovers are a major thorn in the side of Mississippi State, as it gives away the ball at a 22% clip. That's a worry, but at least Kansas State loses the ball often as well.
Both defenses are fairly mediocre and don't force turnovers at all, though.
Kansas State Basketball
Kansas State is pretty fortunate to be 4-0. The Wildcats nearly blew a gigantic lead to Cal, and they fought back from down five with 40 seconds left to beat Tulsa.
The Wildcats were due for major shooting regression that kicked in against Tulsa, as they went 5-for-24 (20%) from downtown.
This season, Kansas State is rattling in 45% of its shots from distance.
I still think more regression is soon to come. Nate Johnson is shooting 58% and David Castillo is at 61% from 3. Neither is sustainable and will eventually level out.
What won’t level out is Haggerty’s dominance. It doesn’t matter what school he’s at, he’s going to score at an elite level — primarily by driving to the hoop, drawing fouls and scoring. He’s second in points per game (26.5) nationally and already has 43 free throws attempted.
Any team that plays Kansas State can just chalk up Haggerty for 25+ points. It’s about limiting the supporting cast from playing above their level.
On the flip side, Haggerty is the main culprit for Kansas State having turnover problems. The Wildcats are playing faster than ever under Jerome Tang, and the turnovers have also seen an uptick to 20.5%.
Defense is where Kansas State is really in trouble, though. In its last two games, California tallied 96 points and scored 1.23 PPP, and Tulsa scored 83 points on 1.11 PPP.
One noticeable issue is stopping guards' dribble penetration. Dai Dai Ames of Cal and Tylen Riley of Tulsa used their speedy styles to get into the lane and make plays.
That’s a big concern entering this contest.
Mississippi State vs. Kansas State Betting Analysis
I'm backing the Bulldogs here. Kansas State is a worse version of Mississippi State.
I'm typically lukewarm on teams that have one total stud and a bunch of mediocre supporting cast members. However, the Bulldogs have extra effort players in Jones, Ballard and Achor that'll keep possessions alive.
There's a path for Mississippi State to win if Hubbard has an off-night.
If Haggerty struggles, Kansas State needs a lot of help to win a game against a top-50 team.
My Pick: Mississippi State -2 (Play to -3.5)
