Texas quarterback Arch Manning opened the college football season as the clear betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at +600. He was followed on the odds board by LSU quarterback Garrett Nussemeier at +850, Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith at 10-1, and Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik at 11-1. Expectations were sky high, but those hopes were dented in his first outing.
Manning threw two interceptions and just one touchdown in a 14–7 road loss at Ohio State on Saturday. In the immediate aftermath, some sportsbooks moved his Heisman price out as far as 18-1 or 20-1 before it settled closer to 15-1 by the end of the weekend.
For perspective on Manning’s slide, history offers several parallels. Other highly regarded contenders who entered the season at 15-1 or shorter have seen their odds balloon beyond that mark after the first week, either because of their own struggles, a disappointing team result, or the rise of other players making early statements.
2023 – Cade Klubnik, Clemson, 14-1 → 50-1
Clemson opened the season on the road against Duke and suffered a stunning 28–7 loss. Klubnik completed 27 of 43 passes for 209 yards with one touchdown and one interception, but he struggled to sustain drives and finished with a QBR of just 29.1. The Tigers’ second-half collapse and his poor showing drove his odds sharply down.
2023 – Quinn Ewers, Texas, 12-1 → 20-1
Texas faced No. 3 Alabama in Tuscaloosa and came away with a signature 34–24 upset win. Ewers was outstanding, throwing for 349 yards and three touchdowns while leading the Longhorns to snap Alabama’s 21-game home win streak. Despite the statement performance, his odds still drifted, reflecting early market caution.
2023 – Jayden Daniels, LSU, 10-1 → 40-1
LSU was dominated by Florida State in Orlando, losing 45–24 after a competitive first half. Daniels threw for 347 yards and added 64 yards rushing, but he was sacked four times and LSU’s offense sputtered down the stretch. His odds fell steeply, though he later rebounded to claim the Heisman by season’s end.
2021 – D.J. Uiagalelei, Clemson, 6-1 → 25-1
Clemson’s opener came against Georgia in Charlotte and ended in a 10–3 defeat. Uiagalelei managed just 178 passing yards with no touchdowns and threw a costly interception that was returned for the game’s only touchdown. The poor start sent his odds tumbling and set the tone for an inconsistent season.
2021 – C.J. Stroud, Ohio State, 10-1 → 25-1
Stroud’s debut came at Minnesota, where Ohio State pulled away in the second half for a 45–31 win. He threw for 294 yards and four touchdowns, though he looked unsettled early before heating up. Despite the victory and Big Ten Freshman of the Week honors, his inexperience and shaky first half led to an early odds drop.
2019 – Adrian Martinez, Nebraska, 10-1 → 30-1
Nebraska began with a 35–21 win over South Alabama, where Martinez played cautiously and did not impress. The following week at Colorado, the Huskers blew a 17-point lead and lost 34–31 in overtime. Martinez threw for 187 yards with one touchdown and one interception while adding 117 rushing yards and two scores, but the loss and inconsistency cooled Heisman talk and pushed his odds to 30-1.
2016 – Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma, 12-1 → 25-1
Oklahoma opened against Houston in a highly anticipated matchup but fell 33–23 in an upset. Mayfield threw for 323 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, but the Sooners’ defense and special teams let them down. The loss knocked Oklahoma out of early playoff contention and caused Mayfield’s Heisman odds to slide.
