The College Football Playoff is set, and with Selection Sunday in the rearview, we now have a complete look at which teams will be eligible to compete for the College Football Playoff championship on January 19. But which team actually has the best shot to come out on top?
Prediction market Polymarket has odds posted for the most likely College Football Playoff winners, with blue bloods and upstarts alike running the table.
College Football Playoff Odds, Predictions
(Odds via Polymarket)
CFP Championship Favorites
Ohio State CFP Championship Odds
Despite a tough loss to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship that resulted in the two teams swapping spots in the final ranking, Ohio State still holds the best odds to win the whole thing by a significant margin.
The Buckeyes' defense looked strong in that loss, holding Fernando Mendoza and Co. to just one touchdown and 13 total points, which was almost enough to make up for some costly mistakes by their own quarterback, Julian Sayin. Ohio State won't have to face a team as tough as IU until the championship game, with its first matchup coming against the winner of Miami vs Texas A&M. The path is there for Ryan Day's squad, it's just a matter of capitalizing on it.
Indiana CFP Championship Odds
The Hoosiers completed their storybook Fall with a tight, 13-10 win over the higher-ranked Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship.
The bad news for Indiana is that they have some tough defenses standing between them and a championship game appearance. They'll play the winner of Alabama vs Oklahoma on New Year's Day, with the Sooners' defense ranking 10th in FBS in opponent yards per game. If they make it past that challenge, they're likely to see another stout defense.
The semifinal would be against either Texas Tech, JMU or Oregon, of which the latter two ranked top three in opponent yards per game.
If pressure truly makes diamonds, we might see this offense unlock another level of greatness against the highest level of competition.
Georgia CFP Championship Odds
Georgia was able to work itself into a first-round bye in the final few weeks of the season, with commanding wins over ranked Texas and Georgia Tech to take the Bulldogs into the SEC Championship, where they dispatched No. 9 Alabama by three scores.
The Bulldogs are not only likely the most battle-tested team in recent weeks, but also may have the easiest path of any of the top four teams. Their first matchup will either be against an 11-seeded Tulane, or a Lane Kiffin-less Ole Miss. From there, it gets trickier, but we've seen Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Miami all show some flaws in the weeks leading up to the playoff. Kirby Smart's team has a 17% chance at glory in this stacked field.
