Welcome to the sixth annual edition of my baby: the preseason MAC Manifesto.
My primary goal is to get you better prepared ahead of Week 1 for some of the lesser-covered teams in the country. Plus, before we know it, we’ll be sweating some Tuesday night action in a torrential downpour in Mount Pleasant, MI.
When evaluating the MAC — more than any other conference in college football — expect the unexpected. Remember when Central Michigan went from 1-11 (0-8 in the MAC) to a conference title appearance in 2019?
How about in 2021 when Northern Illinois made that accomplishment look like child’s play after the Huskies became the first college football team ever to win a conference championship following a winless season?
And then Ohio came out of nowhere last year to win its first conference title since 1967 to close out another unpredictable season in the MAC. Not many people (including myself) had the Bobcats on their radar in the preseason, even as a deep sleeper.
The conference continues to fall behind with key player departures and even coaches. Look no further than those defending champion Bobcats, who saw head coach Tim Albin leave in the offseason to take the same gig at Charlotte.
Ohio’s new head coach is one of six new head honchos across a league that now has 13 teams with the re-arrival of UMass following a decade-plus hiatus — although that’s temporary with Northern Illinois headed to the Mountain West next season.
There’s plenty of change, as you might expect, with potentially nine of the 13 teams starting new quarterbacks in 2025. That also includes former Toledo starting quarterback Dequan Finn, who will now take over under center at Miami (OH), which returns zero starters on offense.
Eight different teams have played in the previous six conference championship games, and every team has made an appearance since 2015 except for Eastern Michigan. The Eagles are still seeking that elusive first-ever appearance.
One team that will certainly not make an appearance this year is Akron, which isn’t eligible for the postseason. More on that later.
Could we see another surprise winner this season? Absolutely.
The talent disparity from top to bottom just isn’t as significant as other conferences, and that gap seems to be closing in the new landscape of college football, where MAC teams are losing key contributors each year at an accelerated rate.
As a result, I rarely see any value at the top of the conference odds board in the MAC. That's the case once again this season.
If you’re curious about my past results in this piece, I started off with some good fortune in the first edition of the Manifesto back in 2020, with Ball State 9-1 getting to the window.
Things didn’t go as smoothly the following two seasons, but both Kent State 14-1 and Ohio 25-1 reached the title games in 2021 and 2022, respectively.
I’m still bitter about the Golden Flashes going down as a favorite in the title game to Northern Illinois — the ultimate horseshoe that season.
I’m also fully convinced the Bobcats would've won their first MAC title since 1968 if quarterback Kurtis Rourke hadn’t suffered a late-season injury.
However, the MACtion gods returned me a favor with Miami (OH) 8-1, which got the job done in the title game with its own backup quarterback after Brett Gabbert went down. All hail the 2023 SpreadHawks.
I came up short last year with NIU and Bowling Green falling short of the title game ��� although I’m still not sure how neither got there. In fairness, I completely whiffed on Ohio, which rightfully cost me in the end.
So, who will win it this year? Toledo is the favorite once again, but the Rockets have had their fair share of disappointment under head coach Jason Candle.
Who is this year’s Ohio? It’s probably not Ohio if you go based on history. No MAC team has repeated as champion since 2012.
My best advice is to put on a blindfold and throw a dart. Your guess is as good as mine.
In all seriousness, maybe this article will help you find your horse for the season. I do want to remind everybody to make sure you shop around for the best price, as always, when it comes to win totals and futures.
Every cent matters, and longer shots can have significantly different prices depending on the book.
Also, as always, I will have an updated midseason Manifesto before the start of midweek MACtion to catch everybody up on what’s going on with each roster at the midway point of the season.
Good luck this season, and thanks for reading. Now, let's dive into my 2025 MAC picks and college football futures for the new season.
2025 MAC Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Toledo | +230 |
| Ohio | +320 |
| Buffalo | +400 |
| Miami (OH) | +700 |
| Bowling Green | +1000 |
| Northern Illinois | +1200 |
| Western Michigan | +1600 |
| Central Michigan | +2000 |
| Eastern Michigan | +3000 |
| UMass | +6000 |
| Ball State | +7000 |
| Kent State | +20000 |
| Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings | |
 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
- MAC Odds: +270
- Win Total: o8.5 (-144)
- Projection: 8.52
- Returning Production: 48th
It was a disappointing 2024 season for the Toledo Rockets, who finished just 7-5 in the regular season before upsetting Pitt in a wild Motor City Bowl.
A lot of the blame falls on the offense, which had absolutely no running game, falling from a top-20 unit in 2023 to outside the top 100 in 2024.
Toledo continues to recruit at the highest level in the MAC and does a tremendous job of retaining talent, but can head coachJason Candle guide it to a MAC title?
Only one in the past seven seasons feels like a bit of a disappointment given the expectations and rosters over that span.
The pieces are certainly in place for the only team eligible to win the league that returns the same head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and quarterback.
Toledo Offense
Tucker Gleason returns under center after a very up-and-down season. The Rockets hope for much more consistency in his second full year as a starter.
Things would certainly be easier for Gleason if Ohio State, Kentucky and Arizona State transfer Chip Trayanum helps provide a mega boost to the ground game. The reports out of spring suggest plenty of promise on that front.
The offensive line had some warts (especially in run blocking) in 2024, as you might expect for a brand-new unit that had zero returning starts. That number jumped up to 42 in 2025, led by right guard Ethan Spoth.
The Rockets do need to replace their starting center and left tackle, but neither jumped off the page last season. This unit should be improved, but by what magnitude remains a mystery.
From a skill-position standpoint, Toledo does lose wide receiver Jerjuan Newton (recently waived by the Broncos) and tight end Anthony Torres (now with the Rams), but Junior Vandeross (85 catches, 957 yards) returns as likely the league’s best receiver.
He’ll now be joined by the electric Trayvon Rudolph, who transfers in from Northern Illinois.
Assuming Gleason can show a bit more game-to-game consistency, this offense should take a major leap in 2025 with a significantly stronger run game with Trayanum in town — although I’m certainly monitoring how this offensive line comes together, as I think the transfers from Pitt and Penn State would give them the most upside as starters.
Toledo Defense
You can generally count on the Toledo 4-2-5 base defense, but the Rockets certainly have a few key pieces they need to replace.
Starting up front, Toledo loses all four starters, led by stud defensive tackle Darius Alexander, who the Giants selected in the third round of the NFL Draft.
While the Rockets did lose a number of senior starters who had been with the program for years, it’s worth noting that they rotate frequently along the defensive line. As a result, they do return a few rotational depth pieces who will now need to step up (along with a few transfers) with increased snap counts.
Like most seasons with Toledo, I don’t have much concern with this group despite the losses.
Toledo also saw a mass exodus at linebacker with the graduation of Jackson Barrow and Daniel Bolden, who had been with the program for a combined 12 seasons. Lance Dixon also finished up his tour in the Glass City and now finds himself on the Eagles' roster.
This is the position I’m most worried about on the defense. The Rockets will need some depth guys to ascend or hit on some underwhelming transfer additions, led by Langston Long (USF/Virginia) and Hudson Miller (Purdue).
Despite the loss of four-year starting safety Maxen Hook (also now with the Eagles), the Rockets' secondary looks extremely stout, led by future potential pros at cornerback and safety in Avery Smith and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, respectively.
Nasir Bowers flashed at the other corner spot in his first year as a starter in 2024, and Braden Awls is back to man the slot for a secondary that ranked in the top 10 in yards per attempt last season.
The only questionable spot among the five starters lies at the safety spot vacated by Hook, but Jaden Dottin has plenty of potential, and the Rockets added a few intriguing transfers that I fancy.
This is the best secondary in the conference (assuming the corners stay healthy) — although the run defense could be a bit shaky if the linebacker room doesn’t sort itself out properly.
Toledo Special Teams
Toledo has improved in this area in recent seasons, but there's some turnover to be concerned about. It still should be above average for MAC standards, especially in the return game.
Kicking could be shaky.
Toledo Schedule Analysis, Pick
Toledo has one of the three easiest schedules in the country. It gets six extremely winnable home games against WKU, Morgan State, Akron, Kent State, NIU and Ball State.
Let’s call that a floor of five wins (even if Candle is no stranger to a clunker or two each season) and focus on the road schedule to dig into the potential ceiling:
- At Kentucky
- At Western Michigan
- At Bowling Green
- At Washington State
- At Miami (OH)
- At Central Michigan
Not terrible by any stretch for a team that avoids both Buffalo and Ohio.
Even the Kentucky game is winnable, although that list contains almost exclusively high roster turnover teams with new starting quarterbacks. That certainly introduces extra variance.
How will CMU look at the end of the season? Will Bowling Green be competitive? The trip out to Pullman late in the season is also a bit odd.
Toledo is the rightful favorite to win the league, but it's a pass for me, preseason betting-wise.
Stuckey's Pick: Pass
- MAC Odds: +430
- Win Total: o7.5 (-138)
- Projection: 7.76
- Returning Production: 67th
Pete Lembo took over as head coach prior to the 2024 season and certainly has the Bulls ahead of schedule after a surprising nine-win season.
While Buffalo won’t sneak up on anybody this season, it has received plenty of preseason hype due to some of the returning pieces in Lembo’s second season.
Buffalo Offense
With C.J. Ogbonna graduating, Buffalo will have a new signal caller in the well-traveled Ta'Quan Roberson, who had previous stops at Penn State, UConn and Kansas State. Although, he has really only seen legitimate action in one of his previous six seasons when he threw for over 2,000 yards at UConn in 2023.
Roberson will benefit from the return of a returning 1,000-yard rusher Al-Jay Henderson and leading receiver Victor Snow.
While the Nos. 2 and 3 receivers depart, Nik McMillan returns from injury to slide in as a starter, and the Bulls added transfer Jasaiah Gathings, who had 87 catches over the past two seasons at Akron and UConn.
The depth beyond those three is a bit shaky.
Up front, Buffalo does lose two offensive starters at center and right tackle. A decent guard duo does return in Tyler Doty and Trevor Brock — although it appears the latter will kick out to right tackle to start the season.
As a result, it looks as if Alex Heininger will start at left guard with no experience, and Long Island transfer Jake Timm will take over at center. Those are the two positions to watch to see how this unit comes together.
Buffalo Defense
The strength of the defense last year resided at defensive end and linebacker, where Buffalo had the nation’s top two leading tacklers in Red Murdock and Shaun Dolac.
While Dolac departs (now with the Rams), Murdock returns, as do both defensive ends in Dion Crawford and Kobe Stewart, who combined for 22 pressures and 18 sacks last year. Although, Crawford could potentially move to linebacker to fill Dolac’s massive shoes.
I do worry a bit about the defensive tackle room, even with George Wolo’s return from injury. That group looks like it could get pushed around a bit in the run game.
On the back end, the secondary returns plenty of experience, although that group certainly has room to improve. Based on the initial depth chart, there’s a chance new starters emerge, so it’ll be interesting to see how this unit shakes out.
Regardless, this should be a fairly stout MAC defense by the time conference play rolls around.
Buffalo Special Teams
This is Pete Lembo’s specialty, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt, but the Bulls do need to replace their solid kicker (who left for Texas Tech), punter and long snapper.
Buffalo Schedule Analysis, Pick
While Buffalo undoubtedly exceeded expectations in Lembo’s first year at the helm, the Bulls definitely got a bit fortunate in a number of ways, such as turnovers and in close games where they were outplayed.
Just take a look at their eight regular-season wins from a season ago:
- Lafayette
- UMass
- Northern Illinois (OT, were dominated statistically)
- Toledo (outgained)
- Ball State (OT, outgained)
- Eastern Michigan (outgained)
- Kent State
- Akron
That’s not necessarily a murderer’s row, and they easily could’ve had a few wins flip to losses.
In fairness, the Bulls appear to have a high floor with St. Francis, Akron, EMU, Bowling Green, Kent State and UMass all on the schedule.
They also have very winnable nonconference home games against UConn and Troy. And you couldn’t ask for a better road league slate that includes Kent State, UMass, Bowling Green and Central Michigan. They even avoid Toledo and host Miami and Ohio to close out the year.
After the opener against Minnesota, every game is very winnable — although I have them projected with five easy wins, one probable loss and then six coin flip-ish games (spreads of 4 or below) as you might expect in the MAC.
How Lembo gets those special teams together could make all the difference in potentially swinging the close games in their favor.
Everything is set up for this experienced team to reach Detroit as long as Roberson can hit at quarterback, but we know things are usually not that straightforward in the MAC. I just don't see any value at current prices to invest.
Stuckey's Pick: Pass
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
- MAC Odds: +700
- Win Total: o6.5 (+110)
- Projection: 6.45
- Returning Production: 129th
Miami (OH) has become a mainstay in the MAC title conversation in part due to the coaching continuity it continues to maintain with Chuck Martin.
The RedHawks have won 20 games over the past two seasons and will look to get back to Detroit for a second consecutive year after falling flat on their face against Ohio last season before a nice rebound in the bowl game.
Miami (OH) Offense
While the coaches are all familiar (outside of a new special teams coordinator, which is noteworthy), the offense is certainly not.
Miami must replace a rare six-year starting quarterback in Brett Gabbert, in addition to a 1,000-yard back, its top four receivers and all five offensive linemen.
Yes, that means zero returning offensive starters. The most noteworthy departures include:
- QB Brett Gabbert (Dolphins)
- LT Will Jados (Texas Tech)
- RT Reid Holskey (Cut by Ravens)
- WR Javon Tracy (Minnesota)
- WR Reggie Virgil (Texas Tech)
- WR Cade McDonald (Browns)
- RB Keyon Mozee
- TE Jack Coldiron
Everything is brand new, but a familiar name will take over at quarterback in former Toledo signal-caller Dequan Finn, who will actually be playing his seventh year of college ball.
The dual-threat didn’t work out at Baylor, but he immediately becomes one of the best quarterbacks in the MAC for 2025.
Finn’s mobility may come in handy considering he’ll be working behind an offensive line that returns the fewest starts in all of FBS (3).
The most experienced player is Stanford transfer right guard Austin Uke, who was never a full-time starter with the Cardinal. The rest will have to come from former depth pieces without much experience.
To wit, it appears Miami will roll with a redshirt freshman at center and a pair of sophomores on the left side.
While inexperienced, this unit does have decent size (per usual for Miami), especially for a MAC school. It will likely take some time to jell, so expect some major struggles up front early on.
Finn will have the benefit of a backfield that does have experience with Kenny Tracy coming back from an ACL injury, in addition to senior Jordan Brunson.
The RedHawks also hit the portal hard to replenish the wide receiver room, which they’ve done successfully in recent seasons. The headliner names they brought in include Deion Colzie (Notre Dame), Darion Williamson (FSU) and Keith Reynolds (Washington).
There’s no shortage of talent coming from the P4 level on the outside, and look out for Iowa transfer tight end Grant Leeper and returning wideout Kam Perry.
Finn isn’t the most polished passer, but his legs should serve as an enormous asset for the RedHawks all season, especially early on with a brand-new offensive line that could start a number of lower-classmen.
There’s certainly potential here, especially if Miami hits on the receiver position in the portal once again.
Miami (OH) Defense
Miami (OH)'s calling card recently has been its stout defense (and elite special teams) that will at least have a bit more experience to rely on with six returning starters.
With that said, it did lose a handful of its most productive starters from a year ago, including the best from all three levels. The departures to note include:
- CB Raion Strader (Auburn)
- LB Matt Salopek
- LB Ty Wise
- DE Brian Ugwu (20.5 career sacks)
Defensive tackle Nasir Washington is the lone returning starter up front. Adam Trick did get plenty of run last season at defensive end, but this is still an undersized group that will miss the pass-rushing prowess of Ugwu.
I can’t emphasise enough how much of a loss Salopek is. He was the heart and soul of the Miami defense for years and did so much to ensure the defense rarely got out of place.
Oscar McWood and Corban Hondru logged nearly 1,000 snaps in 2024, so Miami still feels good about this group, but I expect a drop-off without Salopek and Wise, who leaves a major hole in the middle.
The safety room should be among the MAC’s best with Silas Walters and Eli Blakey returning as senior starters. While they should help limit explosive plays, the cornerback room has major question marks after lockdown Strader transferred to the SEC.
Luke Evans does come back, but he needs to take a major step forward in 2025. The other cornerback spot remains up for grabs between a pair of unproven sophomores and a freshman.
Plus, if Miami can’t replace Ugwu’s pressure, things become much more difficult on a secondary that won’t have Strader locking down one side of the field.
It’s still a very solid defense but definitely down a level from 2024.
Miami (OH) Special Teams
Even with a new special teams coach, this group should be one of the MAC’s best once again, thanks to kicker Dom Dzioban, who may also handle the punting duties.
Miami (OH) Schedule Analysis, Pick
Like last year, Miami starts out with a brutal nonconference slate where the primary focus should be on getting reps for inexperienced players, and most importantly, staying healthy.
After games against Wisconsin, Rutgers and UNLV, the RedHawks get a break at home vs. Lindenwood prior to MAC play. They could certainly beat UNLV at home, but it looks like 2-2 at best in the nonconference.
In terms of league play, Miami didn’t win the scheduling lottery this year, as it faces Toledo, Ohio and Buffalo, with the latter two coming on the road. On the bright side, each of those contests follows a bye week (in succession) late in the season when Miami usually hits its stride under Martin.
In terms of teams it avoids, those include Kent State, UMass, Bowling Green and Central Michigan. Not the most ideal collection.
Miami certainly has the potential to get back to Detroit, but there’s a lower floor than in recent seasons.
Stuckey's Pick: Pass
- MAC Odds: +320
- Win Total: u7.5 (-140)
- Projection: 6.39
- Returning Production: 94th
After the departure of head coach Tim Albin — who left for the same job at Charlotte — the defending champs are under new management in 2025. New head coach Brian Smith will have to deal with quite a bit of roster turnover at key positions.
Fortunately for the Bobcats, quarterback Parker Navarro does come back to Athens, but the rest of the roster has major question marks.
Ohio Offense
Navarro had an up-and-down season that even saw him get benched against FCS Morgan State early in the season. However, he did improve as the year progressed and clearly became more comfortable in his first full season as a starter.
While he only finished with a 13:11 touchdown-to-interception ratio, he added over 1,000 yards on the ground as a key component of Ohio’s rush-heavy offense.
Navarro will have a familiar name returning in the backfield in Sieh Bangura, who transfers back to Ohio after a brief hiatus at Minnesota. Bangura will be tasked with helping replace both Anthony Tyus III (now with the Seahawks) and Rickey Hunt Jr. (now with MTSU), who combined for over 1,600 rushing yards.
At receiver, Navarro loses his safety blanket, Coleman Owen, who now finds himself with the Colts following a remarkable season (1,245 yards) after transferring from FCS Northern Arizona.
Chase Hendricks and Rodney Harris II do return on the outside, but someone will need to emerge as the alpha in the room. Tight end Mason Williams also returns.
I am very concerned about the offensive line after the departure of four very productive starters. Can transfers and depth pieces fill the gaps? I have my doubts.
Ohio Defense
While I do have some questions about Ohio’s offense, I have even more about the defense, which was a vastly underrated unit throughout most of the 2024 season.
The defensive line dominated for long stretches of the year, setting the tone for the rest of the stop unit.
However, the Bobs will now have to replace almost everybody up front, highlighted by Bradley Weaver (now with Rutgers), Marcel Walker-Burgess, CJ Doggette Jr. (now with FAU), Ben McNaboe and Bralen Henderson (now with Missouri).
They were absolutely gutted and will need to rely on some lower-level transfers in the starting rotation in Anas Luqman from Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Nehemiah Dukes from Youngstown State. That’s a dicey proposition.
The linebacker corps will also undergo a rebuild after the departures of Blake Leake, Shay Taylor and a number of depth guys who followed Albin and Ohio’s LB coach to Charlotte.
In total, along the front seven, Ohio will need to replace 33 of its 35 sacks and nearly 80% of its tackles.
While the secondary does lose top cornerback Roman Parodie (now with the Bucs), safety Dustin Johnson, and safety Austin Brawley, the back end is the strength of the defense (by far) and potentially the entire team.
Strong safety DJ Walker is solid, and the reliable Adonis Williams Jr. also returns at free safety. They’re going to have to be dynamite with an expected drop-off in the front seven.
Overall, this defense should take a healthy step back in 2025, especially if it has to start dipping into their D-II depth.
Ohio Special Teams
I’m also expecting a decline on special teams after some key losses.
Ohio Schedule Analysis
Ohio has an extremely difficult first three games in the nonconference against a trio of P4 teams, which includes road matchups against Ohio State and Rutgers.
The Bobcats do get West Virginia at home in a pretty juicy situational spot with the Mountaineers making the short trip one week before hosting the highly-anticipated Backyard Brawl. A 2-2 stary would qualify as successful with a "gimme" against Gardner-Webb before MAC play begins.
In league play, they do avoid Toledo but also won’t benefit from seeing either Kent State or Akron — each of which the Bobs beat last year.
Most of their easiest opponents on paper (besides UMass) come on the road (Ball State, EMU and WMU), and they also will travel to face Buffalo in a potential pivotal matchup in the final week of the regular season.
Ohio Win Total Pick, Best Bet
I faded Ohio last season, which was my worst call since I started doing these MAC Manifestos before COVID.
I have to give Albin and his staff credit for finding some real diamonds in the rough from the lower levels that all came together beautifully en route to a surprising 11-win season and MAC title.
With that said, I’m going back to the well here with an under 7.5.
The drop-off in the trenches on both sides of the ball should be precipitous. This is not a team that's bringing in a ton of talent (bottom-10 by my numbers in incoming level) to replenish the key losses.
That will result in a drop-off in rush efficiency (the RB room is worse off, in my opinion) for a ball-control offense. That will, in turn, hurt a defense that won’t enjoy that same luxury as last year.
Plus, that defense loses an abundance of talent along the front seven, which should also negatively affect a secondary that's the rightful perceived strength of the team.
And don’t sleep on the impact of losing Coleman Owen as the go-to receiver and returner.
Keep in mind, Ohio won nine games last season in the regular season. Not only did the Bobcats finish 2-0 in one-possession games, but they also benefited from a schedule that really broke their way in a number of different ways.
Their wins came against:
- South Alabama (quarterback out)
- Morgan State
- Akron
- Kent State
- Central Michigan
- Ball State (basically quit)
- Toledo
- Buffalo
Most of those teams had major down years relative to expectations, outside of Buffalo, which Ohio dominated.
The eight FBS teams the Bobcats defeated finished with a combined 38-58 record, with only a pair of the nine finishing with a winning record.
This season, if we remove the three P4 opponents and Morgan State, the eight teams remaining on Ohio’s schedule this season are projected to go 43-53 — a bit tougher but certainly not a gauntlet with only Buffalo really expected to finish above .500.
However, I’m willing to bet a couple exceed expectations with brand new coaching and/or quarterback situations, while Ohio may really miss Albin, who did a remarkable job during his tenure here with back-to-back 10-win seasons before his departure.
Stuckey's Pick: Ohio Under 7.5 Wins
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- MAC Odds: +1200
- Win Total: o6.5 (+138)
- Projection: 6.02
- Returning Production: 127th
Northern Illinois is leaving the MAC after this season. Does that mean it's dead to me? Yes, but the Huskies still deserve a fair breakdown.
Thomas Hammock returns as head coach, but two new coordinators take over in DeKalb. And I’m not too high on either hire — at least for this season.
Northern Illinois Offense
Offensively, Hammock turns to the D-II ranks, as he brings in Quinn Sanders, who led record-setting offenses at Charleston.
We can expect more tempo and a higher frequency of RPOs, but I’m not sure I get the fit unless this is just a move for the future when the Huskies transition to the Mountain West.
When I think of NIU football, I think of a basic, run-heavy offense (Hammock’s background) and a stout defense.
Regardless of scheme, it may be tough sledding for this offense, which will have a new quarterback under center after the departure of Ethan Hampton, who left for Illinois.
Josh Holst takes over as QB1 and does at least have some experience here.
He'll have a very nice backfield with Telly Johnson Jr. and Charleston transfer Chavon Wright. However, 13 of the top 14 in snap counts from a year ago have departed, with two going to the NFL, two going to the P4 and one going to Toledo.
However, the rest of the offense is one giant mystery outside of left tackle Evan Malcore.
The rest of the offensive line (which lost four solid senior starters) will feature a D-II transfer and three new starters without any real experience, including a converted tight end at right tackle.
The tight end room was hit hard by graduation and the portal. And at wide receiver, the Huskies will be counting on a pair of FCS transfers and another player from the D-II ranks.
Between the wide receiver room and offensive line, there are 34 career FBS starts.
Maybe Sanders finds something in his first year at the FBS level and NIU found gold at the lower levels, but there are certainly many more questions than answers on offense.
Northern Illinois Defense
NIU fielded one of the most underrated defenses in the country last year at the G5 level.
Not only will the Huskies miss defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto (who left for Fresno), but they will also have to deal with significant personnel losses, with eight of the top nine in snap counts no longer around (lost five to the NFL or P4).
We can expect a similar scheme with potentially a bit more aggression (the hope is for more turnovers), but this group should take a step back.
The defensive line loses four key contributors, including one to the NFL and one to Texas Tech. This is still a decent room thanks to the defensive end duo of Jalonnie Williams and Roy Williams, but they possess substantially less depth than last season.
Including the nickel position, NIU must also replace a trio of players who each started all 13 games.
It’s a brand new room with previous special teams contributors stepping into starting roles, which doesn’t speak highly of the lower-level transfers they brought in.
The secondary must also be completely rebuilt after the departure of five very productive defensive backs (one to the NFL, two to P4), leaving only 22 career FBS starts from a previously ultra-stingy unit.
Jacob Finley did at least start the final five games of last year and Muhammed Jammeh started six in 2024, so the cupboard isn’t completely bare. However, the other two primary spots will likely go to transfers from Shepherd (D-II) and Saginaw Valley State (D-II).
On paper, there’s a monumental talent drop.
Northern Illinois Special Teams
The special teams for NIU were very poor last year, so maybe it’s not the worst thing to be replacing its kicker, punter and special teams coach.
Kent State transfer Andrew Glass (55-of-75 field goals in career) will take over at kicker.
Northern Illinois Schedule Analysis, Pick
If I had to guess, NIU likely loses four road games to Ohio, Toledo, Maryland and Mississippi State. It also has three likely home wins against Ball State, Kent State and Holy Cross.
That puts it at 3-4 with five other coin flip-ish games that will likely decide its win total, including:
- vs. San Diego State
- vs. Miami (OH)
- at EMU
- at UMass
- vs. Western Michigan
I do have the Huskies favored in three of those five (and short dogs in the other two), but this is not a team I’m interested in buying. I project them at essentially six on the dot.
Stuckey's Pick: Pass
- MAC Odds: 15-1
- Win Total: o6.5 (+198)
- Projection: 5.89
- Returning Production: 130th
Eddie George takes over as the head man for BG after a successful stint at FCS Tennessee State. I personally love the hire.
The former NFL running back also brought along his coordinators, but he certainly has his work cut out for him after taking over in March when Scot Loeffler departed for the Philadelphia Eagles. That didn’t help in the portal department.
Bowling Green Offense
Former Notre Dame/Arizona State/Missouri quarterback Drew Pyne will take over at quarterback, but he didn’t arrive until late in the summer. How fast will he get up to speed, and can he excel at a lower level?
He will get to work behind a very experienced offensive line that features five senior starters. Four of those five return from last year, and right guard Andrew Kilfoyl comes in from USF, where he started 13 games.
It’s worth noting that Nate Pabst will kick out from guard to tackle to replace Alex Wollschlaeger, who left for Kentucky.
The skill positions are much less settled after a mass exodus in the offseason. The hardest to replace will be tight end Harold Fannin IV (now with the Browns), but the losses at running back and wide receiver are also severe.
BG will need a few lower-level transfers and guys returning from injury to hit their potential in what I imagine will be a downhill heavy rushing attack with a high dose of play-action.
Expect more 12 and 13 personnel with a pretty intriguing tight end room.
Bowling Green Defense
Unlike the offensive line, the defensive front (and linebacker room) was absolutely gutted.
The Falcons are going to need some lower-level transfers to hit, led by defensive end Eriq George (Eddie’s son) and former Dayton tackling machine Gideon Lampron at weakside linebacker.
The scheme will also change, as this defensive line will be much more of an attacking unit.
The secondary also experienced massive attrition, with 10 of the top 12 no longer on campus. I do like the cornerback/safety duo of Jalen McClendon and Darius Lorfils, but the other three spots have major question marks.
It appears as if a redshirt freshman will start at one outside cornerback spot, while an Illinois State transfer will take over at nickel.
Kal-El Pascal will likely take the other safety spot next to Lorfils. While I like his potential, he’s still only a sophomore.
There’s no shortage of questions on this side of the ball.
Bowling Green Special Teams
BG is set at punter with John Henderson — a Ray Guy Award sleeper — and they do have a punt block artist returning from injury, but the kicking game isn’t as reliable, and the returners are unsettled.
Bowling Green Schedule Analysis, Pick
If you’re wondering how this team will look, picture Eddie George’s running style in the NFL. Violent and physical. That’s the identity this team wants to have on both sides of the ball.
Can it work in Year 1? It won’t be easy with new schemes on a roster that goes from top-30 in experience to bottom-five after losing 30-plus seniors.
I do show some value in the over, but I have no interest in getting involved with so much uncertainty. I just don’t feel overly confident in my actual raw projection, and the floor is certainly extremely low.
However, if Pyne can thrive at a lower level and some of the transfers can hit their ceiling, there’s a chance BG can surprise some folks, which is why I took a flier on the Falcons to win the league at 22-1 (I wouldn’t go lower than 18-1).
It is the MAC after all, and we have seen some remarkable turnarounds with completely rebuilt rosters in the past. Look no further than Ohio last season (or CMU a few years back after a one-win season).
The schedule is brutal early over the first five weeks, especially with so much roster turnover.
However, if they can gain some valuable experience and work out some kinks with the new roster, the Falcons will have the opportunity to make some noise in the latter half of the schedule following their bye week.
They will get chances to upset Toledo and Buffalo at home (the way to attack those defenses is through the run game), with the other five of their last seven coming against CMU, Kent State, EMU, Akron and UMass. Not bad.
Stuckey's Pick: Bowling Green to Win MAC (Flier · +1800 or Better)
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- MAC Odds: 20-1
- Win Total: o5.5 (+124)
- Projection: 5.39
- Returning Production: 69th
It’s a new day in Mount Pleasant with the end of the Jim McElwain era after a rather underwhelming few seasons. Matt Drinkall comes in from Army where he led the Black Knight offensive line to the Joe Moore Award in 2024.
Central Michigan Offense
Don’t expect to see any triple option this season under new offensive coordinator Jim Chapin from Eastern Washington, but rather a power spread with more 12 personnel and a potentially improved offensive line under the tutelage of Drinkall.
While Joe Labas does return at quarterback after a season-ending injury in 2024, the offense does lose its top four rushers, top seven wide receivers and four offensive linemen (three that really matter).
The running back room is very short on experience, with Nahree Biggins (converted DB with 19 career carries) and Tulane transfer Trey Cornist (zero FBS starts) at the top of the depth chart.
While the wide receiver room does lose basically all of its production from last season, the top five were all hurt at one point, which was basically the theme of the entire offense in 2024.
The hope is that Tyson Davis can actually stay healthy and that some of the depth pieces can emerge as go-to options, but the room isn’t oozing with talent.
Along the offensive line, Martin Koivisto will kick out to right tackle after a horrible year at guard, while Valpo transfer Jacob Russell will take over at left tackle.
Another lower-level transfer, Columbia's John Iannuzzi, will man the left guard spot. After that, CMU has two brand new starters at center and right guard, who combined for just over 100 snaps in 2024.
Drinkall is going to have to earn his money this season.
Central Michigan Defense
New defensive coordinator Sean Cronin, who comes with Drinkall from Army after coaching the defensive line in West Point, has his work cut out for him.
Up front, the Chips will have to replace two of their best in Jonah Pace (now with Iowa) and Jason Williams (graduated), along with defensive end Jaden Davis.
DE Michael Heldman is back at one spot. He’s rock solid. Kade Kostus is also back along the interior (as far as I’m aware), but he isn't listed on the initial depth chart.
The rest of this group has questions. There's no other experience inside, and a true freshman (who transferred from Iowa in June) is listed as the other starting defensive end.
At linebacker, CMU will have to replace weakside linebacker Justin Whiteside, who was with the club for six seasons.
However, this room still looks sturdy with Jordan Kwiatkowski and Dakota Cochran back for their senior seasons. If fellow senior Lawai’a Brown can fill Whiteside’s void, this is the strength of the team headed into the season.
On the back end, the Chips lose shutdown cornerback Donte Kent (drafted by the Steelers) and running mate Da’Raun McKinney, but a pair of senior starters do come back at safety in Caleb Spann and Elijah Rikard.
Jaion Jackson started for most of the season at one of the three cornerback spots as a true freshman, but he will need to take a leap in his sophomore campaign.
It looks like the other outside cornerback spot will either be occupied by former Iowa transfer Brenden Deasfernandes (who played approximately 250 snaps as a slot/safety last year) or Cincy transfer Kalen Carroll.
Central Michigan Special Teams
This group was actually decent last year, but it loses its kicker, punter and kick returner.
Central Michigan Schedule Analysis, Pick
There’s no shortage of uncertainty with this year’s CMU club, starting with a staff that includes a head coach, OC and DC all taking those roles for the first time at the FBS level.
The schedule is also vicious to start over the first three weeks with road games against San Jose State, Pitt and Michigan.
That’s likely an 0-3 start where the goal should be to get valuable reps and hopefully avoid catastrophic injuries on a team where depth is severely lacking at a number of position groups.
Following that early-season gauntlet, things get much easier with a pair of home games against Wagner and Eastern Michigan followed by a road date with Akron prior to its first bye.
After the bye week, there are a number of more winnable games against the likes of UMass, Kent State, Western Michigan and Bowling Green, depending on what the new rosters at the latter two turn out like.
Can CMU make a surprise run to Detroit? If Drinkall can figure out the offensive line, that’s certainly how you can beat some of the teams at the top of the odds board in the MAC.
Plus, the Chips face only two of the top five projected finishers in Toledo and Buffalo, with both coming at home late in the year after potentially working out some kinks on both sides of the ball.
The schedule certainly broke their way. Road games against Akron, Kent State, Western Michigan and Bowling Green are favorable, and seeing UMass and Eastern Michigan on top of that is a nice gift.
They will need plenty of breaks to even reach bowl eligibility, but if there’s one team that’s overdue for some injury and turnover luck, it’s this Chips team that recorded just two interceptions last season.
Over the past three years, they have an unfathomable -42 turnover margin (-17, -7 and -18). Maybe it’s their time to enjoy some breaks. I took a little flier in the wide open MAC but need 20-1 or better.
Stuckey's Pick: Central Michigan to Win MAC (Flier · +2000 or Better)
- MAC Odds: 13-1
- Win Total: o4.5 (-150)
- Projection: 5.28
- Returning Production: 128th
It’s Year 3 for head coach Lance Taylor, but it might feel like Year 0 in many ways with a roster that ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in returning production and a quarterback battle that looks like it will continue into the season.
Western Michigan Offense
Following Hayden Wolff’s graduation, the new quarterback job will either eventually go to former backup Broc Lowry or JUCO All-American transfer Brady Jones, who both will likely get looks in the opener against Michigan State in a hotly contested battle.
Regardless of the winner, the Broncos should have a more mobile QB, but those two have combined for only nine career FBS pass attempts.
While running back Jaden Nixon did transfer out to UCF, that room is still in decent shape with Jalen Buckley and Michigan transfer Cole Cabana.
Although, it’s worth noting that Buckley has dealt with an injury in recent weeks (should still play in Week 1) and Cabana won’t suit up for the opener due to injury.
The wide receiver room will be counting on a number of transfers to step up, while the offensive line loses four very productive starters, including two who signed with the Miami Dolphins this summer.
WMU brought in a trio of P4 transfers they need to hit on. The size is there, but the experience is not.
Western Michigan Defense
The story is similar along the defensive line, where the Broncos lost two starters to P4 teams and then lost two more key pieces to Vanderbilt and Memphis post-spring. Not ideal.
They'll need to cash in on some more transfers to fill the gaps.
The top three linebackers also depart (including nickel Damari Roberson), and while it wasn’t a position of strength, the replacements don’t really move the needle.
In the secondary, the Broncos lost stud cornerback Bilhal Kone (drafted by the Ravens) and CB2 Nyquann Washington.
They do at least have experience at safety with Aaron Wofford and Tate Hallock, but Joseph Jefferson flipping to Louisville in April didn’t help matters.
Western Michigan Special Teams
Never trust WMU special teams.
Western Michigan Schedule Analysis, Pick
From a scheduling perspective, North Texas at home is likely the swing game to determine if the Broncos go 2-2 or 1-3 in the nonconference.
In MAC play, their road games against UMass, Miami, Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan aren’t awful, and they do get to host Ohio and Toledo.
Maybe Western Michigan will hit on one of the two new quarterbacks, and maybe a majority of these Power 4 cast-offs they brought in through the portal will hit.
And maybe new defensive coordinator Chris O'Leary — who had recent stops with the Chargers and at Notre Dame — can provide a schematic bump.
But that’s a lot of ifs.
I personally have no interest in buying despite showing some slight value on the over. This looks like a rebuilding year in Kalamazoo, in which a bowl game would be a nice accomplishment.
Stuckey's Pick: Pass
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- MAC Odds: N/A
- Win Total: o4.5 (+136)
- Projection: 4.78
- Returning Production: 111th
Due to a low APR score (bad grades), Akron is not eligible for postseason play and could be in jeopardy of losing its D-I status without improvement next season. We haven’t seen this happen since Idaho (now no longer in FBS) over a decade ago.
What does that mean for Akron this year?
Well, for starters, having two late byes, including one at the very end of the regular season, definitely hurts without any chance of even getting to a bowl (or the MAC Championship, as unlikely as that sounds).
Do the Zips stay locked in all year if things go south? It’s certainly worth contemplating and likely one of the reasons I stay away from the over despite showing some value from a pure projections standpoint.
Akron Offense
The good news for Akron is the Zips are one of two teams in the MAC (along with Toledo) with the same quarterback, head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator.
However, the continuity picture gets bleaker from there with a ranking outside the top 100 in returning production.
On offense, their top two backs and receivers transferred out.
Consequently, the Zips are going to need a few lower-level transfers to hit. It would also be a welcome bonus if Alex Adams could actually stay healthy and regain his form from 2023 when he finished with 850 receiving yards.
Once again, the offensive line could be a disaster, which has been a constant theme in recent seasons.
I have a ton of respect for head coach Joe Moorhead, and quarterback Ben Finley showed some good things last season, but there’s only so much they can do without any blocking up front.
It’s hard to see much improvement unless they somehow strike gold in the portal with some underwhelming additions.
Akron Defense
Defensively, Akron runs a pretty basic 4-2-5 scheme that had a down year after fielding an underrated unit in 2023. This year, it will need some fresh blood to step up after losing its top nine in snap counts.
Six of the top seven left along the defensive line.
The Zips also lost their top two linebackers and four contributing defensive backs (two to West Virginia).
CJ Nunnally IV, who’s off to Purdue, will be the one missed the most off the edge. There’s a glaring lack of FBS experience in the front seven. However, it’s at least not as dire on the back end.
Akron Special Teams
Another area to be concerned about if you’re an Akron fan is special teams.
The Zips were actually very respectable in that area for once last season, but they could plummet after some significant losses, including one of the most underrated punters in all of FBS.
Akron Schedule Analysis, Pick
Their likely losses include road games at Toledo, Bowling Green (although there’s a wide range of outcomes with the Falcons), Buffalo and Nebraska.
That’s pretty much it with an easier nonconference schedule than usual. As a result, they have eight games where it wouldn’t shock me if they came out on top:
- vs. Wyoming
- at UAB
- vs. Duquesne
- vs. Central Michigan
- vs. Miami (OH)
- at Ball State
- vs. UMass
- vs. Kent State
It certainly helps to get UMass and Kent at home, but both do come late in the season. Who knows where Akron will be depth-wise or mentally without anything really to play for (although they're used to that as seasons wind down by now)?
Will they win all eight? Almost certainly not, but there’s a wider range of outcomes than we’ve seen lately.
The bye weeks are not ideal, as I mentioned earlier, but it’s still one of the five easiest schedules in the country, per my numbers.
Stuckey's Pick: Pass
- MAC Odds: +3000
- Win Total: u4.5 (-125)
- Projection: 4.22
- Returning Production: 119th
Head coach Chris Creighton might just be one of the most underrated coaches in the country, especially when you consider the lack of resources and talent at his disposal.
He’s usually going to get the absolute most out of what he has, and his teams usually don’t beat themselves with costly turnovers, penalties or special teams mistakes.
There’s a reason Creighton has been one of the most profitable coaches as an underdog during his tenure in Ypsilanti. If you bet this win total, get ready to sweat some close games, as 73 of the past 97 EMU games have been decided by one possession.
The roster outlook isn’t great once again, as the Eagles rank in the bottom 20 in both returning production and incoming talent.
Eastern Michigan Offense
There was a quarterback competition throughout fall camp after Cole Snyder’s graduation, but it appears that former Michigan State and Coastal Carolina product Noah Kim will get the first look under center.
However, Maryland transfer Cameron Edge and returner Jeremiah Salem will remain in the mix. (For what it’s worth, I was rooting for the fourth man in the race, Jace Stuckey, for obvious reasons.)
The top two backs depart, but Dontae McMillan returns from injury, and the Eagles added Michigan transfer Tavierre Dunlap, who could eventually take over as the lead back.
Five of the top six pass-catchers are also gone, led by Oran Singleton Jr. (now at WVU) and Markus Allen (now at Mississippi State).
Terry Lockett Jr. is back and Porter Rooks returns from injury, but this room will take a step back unless it really hits on JUCO transfer Ben Prosper. Tanner Lemaster will also take over at tight end after coming in from Kentucky.
There’s a bit more optimism surrounding the offensive line in large part due to the return of stud senior Mickey Rewolinski, with the three-year starter sliding over from guard to center to replace Broderick Roman, who left for Southern Miss.
Joshua Anderson is another returning starter who will change positions, moving from right tackle to left guard. Mack Indestad is also back at left tackle.
After Carson Lee’s departure to West Virginia, the right side will have to find two new starters that will have to come from some previous depth pieces or an NC A&T transfer. It’s definitely a potential problem.
Eastern Michigan Defense
On the other side of the ball, EMU will need to replace its top four along the defensive line, with three graduating and one headed to Pitt. That corps was very underrated and will be sorely missed.
Creighton will now need to rely on basically all of his depth pieces from last year stepping up in addition to one Samford transfer. This group should take a major step back.
The linebacker room also looks as if it will take a significant step back after the losses of James Djonkam (transferred to VT) and Luke Murphy (transferred to Coastal). They’re now reliant on depth pieces with injury history and lower-level transfers filling those gaps. It’s a position very much in flux.
On the back end, there's more uncertainty after cornerback Daiquan White (who I loved) transferred to Georgia Tech and top safety Quentavius Scandrett bolted for Arkansas.
With senior free safety David Carter Jr. also graduating, the defensive backfield could also regress — although there’s a little bit more returning production to work with — and maybe projected starting cornerback Joshua Scott can finally stay healthy.
He showed some promise in 2022 but has suffered season-ending injuries in the opener in each of the past two seasons. The Eagles need him this year.
As you can tell, I’m extremely low on this defense in 2025 after EMU lost its top four defensive linemen, top 2 linebackers and best three defen,sive backs with four of those nine getting poached by P4 programs.
While the offense could improve if it hits on quarterback and wide receiver, the right side of the offensive line could hold everything back.
Eastern Michigan Schedule Analysis, Pick
Scheduling-wise, EMU drew the toughest MAC slate.
It won't benefit from seeing Kent State, Akron or UMass. At least there’s no Toledo, but that’s not ideal.
The Eagles also don’t have a bye week until November, which is unfortunate since Creighton usually gets his teams peaking late in the season. They only have three games after Oct. 25.
The win total likely comes down to Central Michigan, Ball State, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green after so much turnover.
And while I do show a small bit of value in the under, I’m not betting against Creighton finding a way to sneak out five wins.
Stuckey's Pick: Pass
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- MAC Odds: 55-1
- Win Total: o3.5 (-152)
- Projection: 4.08
- Returning Prod: 126th
Welcome back to the MAC!
UMass has a new man in charge, as Joe Harasymiak comes to town after serving as defensive coordinator at Rutgers.
He also brings one of his assistants to serve as the new defensive coordinator, while Mike Bajakian comes in from Utah to run the offense, with his most recent OC stint coming at Northwestern from 2020-23.
It’s a complete roster reset, as the Minutemen rank in the bottom-10 nationally in returning production.
UMass Offense
That starts at quarterback, where Utah transfer Brandon Rose won a three-way competition for the starting job.
He was the safest pick of the three to me and signals that UMass wants to go with a more ball-control, run-heavy offense and rely on its defense, which makes sense given the backgrounds of the new staff.
The top seven rushers depart, so UMass will need to hit on some portal additions in the backfield, led by Rocko Griffin (UTSA) and redshirt freshman Brandon Hood (Colorado).
The Minutemen do return their Nos. 2 and 3 wideouts, but their combined production didn’t even come close to matching leading receiver Jakobie Keeney-James, who had signed with the Detroit Lions this summer. He’ll be replaced with a Pittsburgh transfer who has one career catch.
Along the offensive line, there's actually some reason for optimism.
Left tackle Luke Painton returns from injury after transferring in from Columbia prior to last season. He was the presumed starter before suffering a season-ending injury.
Left guard will be manned by a West Virginia transfer with plus size, and Benjamin Roy Jr. will return at center after sliding there over the final five games of 2024 with some nice results.
On the right side, former Cincinnati transfer Mao Glynn II will get the first crack at guard, while Ryan Mosesso returns as a starter at tackle.
If the transfer guards hit, this group (despite only 20 career FBS starts) surprisingly has the size to open up some nice holes in the MAC, assuming this senior-laden group stays healthy.
UMass Defense
Defensively, UMass has to essentially start over after losing nine of its top 10 tacklers with only one returning starter back in the mix.
Up front, five of the top six depart due to a pair of graduations and the following three transfers:
- DE Louce Julien (transferred to Toledo)
- DE Kofi Asare (transferred to Florida)
- DT Aaron Beckwith (transferred to Temple)
Tim Grant-Randall does come back to man the defensive tackle spot next to Maine transfer nose tackle Shymell Davis, but the interior definitely leaves a lot to be desired as an overall group.
At defensive end, a trio of transfers do have some juice in David Onuoha (who comes along with his coaches from Rutgers), Marques White (McNese/Dartmouth) and Joshua Nobles from Jackson State (Western Michigan before that).
The depth isn’t great, but this room has some potential for MAC standards.
UMass will also go transfer heavy at linebacker with another Rutgers migrant, Timmy Hinspeter, and Yale product Dean Shaffer. Additionally, senior Malcolm Greene, who saw the field at both Clemson and Virginia, should take over the STAR position.
It’s not a terrible room despite losing a pair of multi-year starters who played well last year in Gerrell Johnson (graduated) and Jalen Stewart (transferred to Temple).
On the back end, it’s a complete rebuild after the top five in snap count (who stayed relatively healthy in 2024) all graduated. They will need some depth pieces to step up into starting roles, in addition to some lower-level transfers from the likes of Davidson and Georgetown. This position group is a major concern.
UMass Special Teams
The special teams have been a disaster for UMass for the past two seasons.
Look no further than its one-point loss to Liberty last season in overtime, where the Minutemen missed a game-winning field goal at the end of regulation and then missed the extra point in overtime.
They actually have a special teams coach now and some former P4 guys at punter and kicker. The only way to go is up.
UMass Schedule Analysis, Pick
There’s a chance UMass can go 2-2 in the nonconference thanks to a pair of opening home contests against Temple and Bryant.
The next two are certainly losses on the road at Missouri and Iowa, but getting to .500 before conference play could help build some confidence and momentum for a brand-new team and staff.
In league play, there are even more chances for victories, as you might expect in the MAC, with the most likely chances coming at Kent State and home vs. Akron.
Depending on what happens with brand new rosters at Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green and Western Michigan, maybe UMass can flirt with bowl eligibility for the first time since jumping to FBS in 2012.
In the 12 non-COVID seasons since, it has averaged barely over 2.1 wins and hasn’t cleared four.
It will all come down to the offensive line living up to its potential, enabling UMass to lean on its run game in a ball control offense that can hide some of the deficiencies in the secondary — although even those won’t be a major issue against a number of teams on the schedule.
Stuckey's Pick: Lean Over
- MAC Odds: 55-1
- Win Total: o3.5 (-110)
- Projection: 3.61
- Returning Production: 134th
New head coach Mike Uremovich comes in from Butler to replace Mike Neu, who lasted eight seasons in Normal and had failed to reach a bowl since 2021.
Uremovich also brought eight assistants along with him, including new defensive coordinator Jeff Knowles.
Ball State Offense
I don’t envy his job in Year 1, as he also takes over as the primary play-caller for an offense that loses 10 of the top 11 in snap counts from a group that actually put up decent numbers with quarterback Kadin Semonza (transferred to Tulane) last season.
That includes eight who transferred up to higher-level programs and a handful of other multi-season starters along the offensive line who graduated.
This will be a more run-heavy offense with Kiael Kelly moving back to quarterback after a short stint as a defensive back and wide receiver.
Kelly did start games under center in the second half of 2023, running an option-esque type offense that fits more in the mold of what Uremovich did at Butler.
Qua Ashley comes in at running back from Kennesaw State, and Bucknell transfer Eric Weatherly is an intriguing pass-catching option.
Qian Magwood can hopefully take the next step at wide receiver, but don’t expect this offense to light it up through the air.
Ball State wants to run it and run it frequently, and we'll likely see plenty of sets with multiple tight ends. However, the question becomes, can they block anybody with just 11 career FBS starts up front? I have my doubts.
Ball State Defense
Additionally, when Kelly did have some success in Ball State’s modified option offense two seasons ago, the Cardinals could rely on their underrated defense at the time.
That was certainly not the case last year, as that side of the ball was the primary culprit during their 3-9 campaign. It was a group that lost an abundance of talent and saw its production fall off a cliff.
The lone bright spots on last year’s putrid defense graduated in defensive ends Riley Tolsma and Brandon Berger.
There's one returning starter at linebacker and a couple of defensive tackles back in the fold, but it’s essentially a rebuilt front seven that will transition to a new scheme with likely more three-man fronts.
It’s hard to imagine the pass defense could possibly be any worse than 2024, but the top five have departed. A couple of cornerbacks who combined for 600 snaps last season do return, but they will need to hit on some transfers at safety.
This looks like Year 0 of a multi-year rebuild for Uremovich. Even the special teams are brand new.
Ball State Schedule Analysis, Pick
While the projections are bleak, the Cardinals do get New Hampshire, Kent State, Eastern Michigan and Akron at home in the middle portion of a schedule that starts and ends tough with four road games against Purdue, Auburn, Toledo and Miami.
They may need to sweep those four home games to clear the win total, but I’m pretty close to market.
The semi-bullish case is that the defense can’t get worse, so maybe they hit on some transfers and enjoy a schematic bump, while the run-heavy offense (if the offensive line somehow comes together) could have some success in a league where many of the teams have major question marks in terms of defending the run.
Stuckey's Pick: Pass
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- MAC Odds: Not Enough
- Win Total: o1.5 (-170)
- Projection: 1.79
- Returning Production: 122nd
This is the worst team in college football — and by margin. There’s really no need to waste much time on the Golden Flashes, but here’s a quick update.
For starters, they needed a head coach right before spring after firing Kenni Burns in April. To make matters worse, defensive coordinator Kody Morgan left for an assistant’s role at North Dakota State in July.
We’re not off to a good start here for a team that has lost 21 straight overall. They also rank in the bottom 15 nationally in returning production.
Kent State Offense
At quarterback, Fordham transfer CJ Montes will get the first crack at the job.
If that name sounds familiar, he got some brief run at New Mexico back in 2021 and 2022. He missed most of last year with an injury following a prolific 2023 season in the Bronx, where he threw for over 3,000 yards with 26 touchdowns to just one interception.
So, does he have much help? Not really.
The strength of this team in 2024 was at the wide receiver position with Chrishon McCray (transferred to Michigan State) and Luke Floriea (who signed with the Browns this summer).
Now, the position is marred with uncertainty, as the room is extremely inexperienced (22 career FBS catches) and undersized.
It appears that transfer Da’Realyst Clark (one of my favorite names this season) will snag one starting spot after catching only seven balls at FCS Butler last year. The tight end position is also brand new.
The running back room at least boasts a bit more experience with Gavin Garcia returning from injury and Minnesota transfer Jordan Nubin joining him.
As you may have guessed, the offensive line should be a mess. Returning starter Dustyn Morrell is back, but he will move to center after playing all four other positions besides center at some point in 2024.
Right tackle Garrett Masterson did start six games last year, but they didn't go swimmingly, to say the least. The other three projected starters include:
- LT Jamarcus Hill (made six starts at SEMO in 2023)
- LG Matt Pajuste (14 special teams snaps in four years at Buffalo)
- RG Ashton Rivera (0 snaps in two seasons at FIU)
This group does at least have adequate size at an average of 6-foot-4 and 303 pounds.
Kent State Defense
Defensively, the strength last year resided up front, but the Golden Flashes saw almost all of that production leave town in the offseason, including:
- DE Stephen Daley (transferred to Indiana)
- EDGE Matt Harmon (signed with the Vikings this summer)
- EDGE Kam Olds (transferred to Kentucky)
- DT Kaden Beatty (transferred to Washington State)
And the two with the next most snaps graduated.
This room was gutted, and there are no career FBS starts along the defensive line that features a bunch of depth guys being asked to step up in addition to lower-level transfers (and Thomas Aden from Pitt).
At linebacker, Kent State loses three primary contributors but does at least return its top two players in terms of snap counts in Mason Woods and Canaan Williams. Neither thrived in 2024 in a room that dealt with injuries all season long.
They will be joined by sophomore CJ Young, who logged 150 snaps last year. It’s not a great room.
It’s another rebuild on the back end after four of the top five departed. The only primary contributor from last season back in the mix is free safety Tevin Tucker, who logged the second-most snaps of the defense after getting thrown into the fire as a freshman (and predictably struggling).
This season, he’s the most seasoned one of the group (not ideal) and will be joined by a true freshman at the other safety spot.
At cornerback, Jaire Rawlison will take one spot after starting late in the season as a true freshman and actually showing some flashes, while the other will likely go to UTEP transfer A’tiq Muhammad, who only saw snaps on special teams down in El Paso. The depth in the secondary and across the roster is in dire shape as you might expect.
Kent State Special Teams
On special teams, Kent State may roll with a freshman punter, a new kicker (3-of-5 career FGs) and new return men.
Kent State Schedule Analysis, Pick
The first question is, can Kent State finally end its losing streak? Well, it will have a great opportunity to do just that this weekend as a 6.5-point home favorite over Merrimack.
After that, the schedule gets arduous for a bit with road games against Texas Tech, Florida State and Oklahoma that surround its league opener against Buffalo.
Injuries could become a real concern prior to a bye week, before another semi-winnable home game against UMass.
In the second half of the season, the Flashes face Central Michigan and Bowling Green, who are going through wholesale changes. They'll also play Ball State and Akron in the Wagon Wheel rivalry.
While they do play many of the bottom-feeders in FBS, they are so far behind that it’s possible they're underdogs of at least a touchdown in every contest after the opener.
Stuckey's Pick: Pass
Stuckey's Favorite MAC Futures & Win Totals for 2025
- Favorite Win Total: Ohio Under 7.5 Wins
- Long Shots Worth Considering: Bowling Green +1000 · Central Michigan +2000
- MAC Championship Prediction: Toledo Over Buffalo
