The preseason AP Top 25 listed Texas, Penn State, Clemson and Notre Dame in the top six. Woof. Those teams are a collective 11-9 overall, and only the Fighting Irish remain ranked at 16th.
Voters were quick to jettison those programs to the unranked wilderness, but they remain skeptical of the upstarts who should be taking their place in the polls.
Memphis (23rd), BYU (18th) and Georgia Tech (13th) remain undefeated, but their journey to the top of the polls has more of a crawl than a rapid ascent. Even Indiana, a College Football Playoff team from a year ago, continues to face skepticism.
And it’s not just the voters who are skittish when it comes to ranking IU highly; the betting markets are also playing a “wait and see” game with the Hoosiers.
This week is the last opportunity to buy Hoosier stock at a discounted price.
I have three ways to grab some IU stock before its game on Saturday against the Oregon Ducks in Eugene, so let's dive into my college football futures and NCAAF picks for Indiana ahead of Week 7.
Fernando Mendoza to Win Heisman Trophy
Odds: +1500 (ESPN Bet)
The Hoosiers have never produced a Heisman winner. That may have been a major impediment to Fernando Mendoza winning 30 years ago, when there was a distinct voter bias toward blue-blood programs.
But in the modern era, two things have changed: exposure on TV and access to the CFP.
Indiana is a known commodity, playing the majority of its games on national television. Its outspoken coach, Curt Cignetti, courts attention.
And the Hoosiers' play on the field positions them to make the College Football Playoff field for the second straight season. Last year, those elements helped Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke garner 22 votes in the Heisman race, good for a ninth-place finish.
Mendoza is on pace to obliterate some of Rourke’s IU records. At his current trajectory, Mendoza would finish with 46 total touchdowns, assuming IU competes in the Big Ten Championship.
Given Cignetti’s preference to run up the score and a pair of tin cans ahead of them in UCLA and Purdue, 40-plus touchdowns seems like a certainty.
All that’s left for Mendoza is a Heisman moment or two, and he has ample opportunity in that department, starting with a road test at No. 3 Oregon on Saturday afternoon.
Indiana to Win Big Ten
Odds: +1000 (BetMGM)
Penn State’s implosion has opened the door for a team to compete with Ohio State for a league title. Indiana would be perfectly positioned to swoop in and assume the No. 1 contender role with a win over Oregon on Saturday.
The Ducks’ marquee win looks completely different after Penn State fell to UCLA at the Rose Bowl on Saturday. Is it possible that the college football world was too quick to anoint Dan Lanning’s team as a juggernaut?
The Ducks gained 374 yards and scored 17 points in regulation against Penn State, while UCLA shredded PSU to the tune of 446 total yards and 42 points.
I’m certainly interested in IU as a +240 underdog at Autzen Stadium this weekend, but if it wins, this +1000 ticket will likely shrink into the +250/+200 range by Sunday morning.
Indiana to Make CFP Semifinals
Odds: +500 (bet365)
Sometimes you're gambling on your personnel, sometimes your path. Just like March Madness, not all deep runs in a tournament setting are created equal.
For example, Notre Dame was fortunate to catch Georgia in the CFP last season because the Dawgs had lost their starting quarterback in the SEC Championship.
It’s impossible to know exactly what IU’s path could look like, but if you’re simply going by current projections, Indiana is either hosting a game in the first round or enjoying a bye to the quarterfinals.
If you believe the Hoosiers will win on Saturday, there’s a 90% chance they’ll earn a first-round bye, according to ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor. And that 90% assumes a loss in the Big Ten Championship.
This season is feeling more chaotic by the minute, so I’d like to start stacking futures tickets for teams to make a run to college football’s Final Four before the value dries up.
