As I do each year, I'll go conference by conference and list out my favorite win total and future (when applicable) while sharing all of the other bets I made (with some other considerations) throughout the summer.
My main objective is to just share some thoughts on a handful of teams to help you get ready for the new college football season, which will be here in a matter of hours.
Let's dive into my college football futures and NCAAF win totals. Good luck!
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ACC Win Totals, Futures
Syracuse Under 5 Wins (-120)
This thing has been hit all summer, but I still show a substantial amount of meat on the bone. Notre Dame transfer Steve Angeli won the starting quarterback job, which probably raises the floor but also limits the ceiling.
With that said, this offense will likely take as big of a step back as any in the country.
Under offensive coordinator Jeff Nixon, Cuse had one of the most pass-heavy offenses in FBS in 2024, which dazzled throughout the season (with the exception of the Pitt game) as a top-10 unit.
That production will be impossible to duplicate after the Orange lost their quarterback and running back (who was great out of the backfield) to the NFL in addition to a trio of All-ACC pass-catchers — two of which headed to the pros and the other to Penn State.
The offensive line will also have to replace its three best starters up front.
The defense, which really emphasizes limiting explosives schematically, lost all four All-ACC guys and five in total to the NFL, including:
- CB Clarence Lewis (Titans)
- EDGE Fadil Diggs (Saints)
- LB Marlowe Wax (Chargers)
- S Alijah Clark (Cowboys)
- S Justin Barron (Cowboys)
Additionally, they lost four more potential defensive starters post-spring, including a defensive lineman to Texas and a pair of defensive backs who may start for UCF.
It's a total rebuild, especially on offense, where the Orange rank in the bottom-10 nationally in returning production. I just don't think they have the horses in place to avoid a steep drop-off after a surprise 10-win season.
Lastly, and maybe most importantly, the schedule is an absolute gauntlet and arguably the toughest in the country. It's certainly the most difficult away-from-home schedule (and the hardest by margin league schedule in the ACC) with games outside of New York against Tennessee, Clemson, SMU, Georgia Tech, Miami and Notre Dame. Yikes.
That looks like 0-6 to me. Can they sweep in the dome to clear their win total? I'll take my chances on no against a home slate that includes Duke, Pitt, North Carolina and Boston College at home.
They are substantially more likely to go 4-2 than 6-0 at home in my eyes. Plus, they could have depth issues late in the season, as we've seen in the past with Syracuse, which could hurt against BC and UNC.
Long Shot: Louisville to Win ACC (+850)
I think the market is too high on Clemson heading into the season. I personally don't hate a "no" ticket on the Tigers to win the ACC.
Additionally, I don't trust Mario Cristobal as far as I can throw him, and who knows how the situation with Carson Beck will play out in regards to his health, potential locker room turmoil, and a pass-catching room that certainly has major question marks?
SMU should also take a major step back defensively. Maybe you can talk yourself into UNC due to its extremely favorable schedule, but that's not for me.
Therefore, I think the two teams worth considering for an ACC long shot are Louisville and Georgia Tech.
I personally went with the Cardinals, who brought in Miller Moss from USC in the offseason. He's the perfect fit for Jeff Brohm, who has as good a quarterback track record as any coach in the country.
With one of the best backfields in the nation, I don't have many concerns with how this offense will operate.
Louisville did lose some real talent on defense and went transfer-heavy overall once again, but Brohm has shown he can make that work. Keep in mind, this team was super close to breaking through last year if just a few bounces had gone its way.
The Cardinals still won nine games despite an improbable final-minute loss at Stanford. They also played SMU dead-even statistically, led Miami in the fourth quarter and outgained Notre Dame, 395-280, in a trio of one-possession losses to ranked teams.
From a scheduling perspective, Louisville does have a tough ACC road slate that includes clashes with Miami, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and SMU (in a brutal situational spot).
However, it does avoid Georgia Tech and will host a Clemson team it dominated last year at home on a Friday night in a juicy spot.
There's a very real chance the Cardinals can jump out to a 5-0 start prior to a bye week before heading down to Miami. I do fancy a number of transfers Brohm brought in up front defensively. While the secondary remains my biggest concern, there are at least not too many teams on the schedule with potent passing offenses.
ACC Potential Adds
- Virginia Tech Over 6.5 (+130)
- Florida State Over 7.5 (+160)
American Conference Win Totals, Futures
Army Under 7.5 (-105)
I hate to be unpatriotic and go against the troops, but my numbers say I have to fade Army after a dream 12-2 season.
It all starts with the loss of quarterback Bryson Daily, who threw for nearly 2,000 yards and added another 1,600-plus on the ground. His leadership and playmaking ability simply won't be replaced.
Additionally, the Black Knights will have to replace three starters from the Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line. That includes both tackles, who have so much responsibility at the line in regard to communication and calling out the defense.
This group should regress hard.
It's also worth mentioning Army lost a trio of contributors to P4 teams in the portal, including:
- RB Kanye Udoh (Arizona State)
- CB Donavon Platt (Virginia)
- OLB Elo Modozie (Georgia)
Scheduling-wise, Army does have four very easy home games, which gives it a fairly stable floor. However, even if it sweeps those plus North Texas, it may struggle to pick up three wins away from home.
Overall, the schedule should get tougher than last season when everything broke its way. Its 10 wins last year in the regular season came against a plethora of teams that had beyond horrendous seasons, including five that ended up firing their coach.
Plus, Air Force had an outlier bad season and should field a much more competitive team in 2025.
I also wouldn't be surprised if Army suffered from regression in a number of areas, including turnovers and red-zone efficiency on both ends.
With that said, this is basically a numbers play and a fade of an Army offense that should take a massive step back due to the turnover at quarterback and along an offensive line that also lost its stud coach.
And while I still like many of the pieces remaining on the defense, if the offense suffers, so will the defense, which benefited from the outstanding ball-control machine under Daily in 2024.
Long Shot 1: USF to Win American (+800)
I believe the Bulls are primed for a run under Alex Golesh in his third season. He's done a tremendous job so far in Tampa with back-to-back bowl appearances following an 8-37 run before he arrived.
Golesh knows offense, and he potentially has the league's top quarterback if Byrum Brown returns to form and the new pieces in the backfield come together behind what projects as a solid offensive line (assuming they're healthy).
The Bulls have continued to recruit well, and I like the portal work they did in the offseason.
USF undoubtedly has a brutal schedule, which includes nonconference road games against Miami and Florida. As long as it can avoid getting too beat up in either contest, the Bulls could benefit later in the season from those games.
The conference slate doesn't include Temple or Tulsa, while also featuring road games against Navy, Memphis and North Texas. However, two of their critical matchups against other league contenders do come in ideal situational spots:
- at Navy (Mids play Notre Dame the week prior)
- vs. UTSA (USF has a bye the week prior, while the Roadrunners face Tulane)
Those two games could decide who ultimately gets to the conference championship.
Long Shot 2: North Texas to Win American (+1800)
This is just a small lottery ticket on a team that should have better injury luck this season and boasts a very strong offense once again under head coach Eric Morris.
The defense has been the problem for years in Denton, where the Mean Green haven't had a winning season since 2018.
However, there's upside here under new defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity, who comes in from Sam Houston with a number of his former players who have familiarity with the new scheme.
If the portal additions hit on that side of the ball and the Mean Green get a schematic bump, they could find themselves in the mix late in the season, especially considering they have a very favorable schedule.
They only face one of the top eight on the road in Army, which they play early in the season. That should prove beneficial with the Black Knights breaking in a new quarterback. The Mean Green should also benefit from that game against two other option teams later in the season.
They also avoid Memphis and Tulane while getting to host USF, Navy and UTSA.
If they can find a way to pull off a couple of home upsets, the final three-game stretch to close out the season (following a bye) against potential lame ducks Rice, UAB and Temple could prove useful.
Other American Bets
- Navy Under 8.5 (+120)
- Tulane Under 8.5 (-130)
- UTSA to make AAC title (+200)
I'd still play Navy and UTSA at current market prices, but Tulane has been bet down enough where I'd avoid it at this point. UTSA vs. USF is my projected AAC championship game in a league that looks more wide open than some may believe.
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Big Ten Win Totals, Futures
Wisconsin Over 5.5 Wins (+140)
When anybody mentions Wisconsin this offseason, they almost always start and end with the schedule. In fairness, the schedule is absolutely murderous.
After a fairly easy first two games against Middle Tennessee and Miami (OH), there are essentially no breaks (starting with a road nonconference game at Alabama) outside of maybe Maryland at home.
The Badgers have to face eight of the projected top 11 in the Big Ten while not benefiting from seeing Purdue, Northwestern or Rutgers — the only three teams they beat in conference play last season. They also won't face UCLA or Michigan State.
While they do get five Big Ten home games, it's no doubt a gauntlet and the most difficult schedule in the nation by many metrics.
With that said, I do project their wins closer to six, so I happily took an over 5.5 at plus-money, especially since I really liked their offseason.
I'm not sure what head coach Luke Fickell was doing when he hired Phil Longo as his offensive coordinator. That marriage was never going to work in Madison.
However, I do think he has now made an astute hire at that role with Jeff Grimes, whose offense should also be a perfect fit for new transfer quarterback Billy Edwards.
And maybe Wisconsin will finally have a quarterback stay healthy for a full season under Fickell. He's certainly overdue for a break in that department.
On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin desperately needed to get bigger in the trenches, and it did just that via the portal.
Keep in mind, it lost a couple of key defenders prior to the start of last season, which really doomed its defense from the start. The Badgers only finished with a pathetic 17 sacks last season — the fewest for Wisconsin in decades.
Admittedly, I'm concerned about the depth in a number of positions, especially with a schedule that could include seven or eight ranked teams.
However, while Wisconsin is just 2-21 over its past 23 games against ranked competition, I think it will pull off one or two upsets this season.
After Wisconsin had its 22-year bowl streak snapped, I'm buying low on the Badgers to get back to .500 with a better offensive scheme fit (and hopefully improved quarterback health) in addition to a defense that will benefit from a vastly improved group up front.
Big Ten Futures
- Penn State to Make the Big Ten Championship (+115)
- USC to Make College Football Playoff (+480)
Among all the top teams, Penn State, which I have power-rated No. 1 headed into the season, the Nittany Lions have the fewest number of questions since they return quarterback Drew Allar.
While Allar still has things he can improve upon, especially against upper-echelon competition, Penn State at least has a reliable returning starter at the position.
It's very possible the Nittany Lions aren't at the top of my power ratings at the end of the regular season, with a few of the other top teams likely to hit at quarterback and unlock a higher ceiling.
Regardless, Penn State will have an extremely high floor and hosts Oregon in a great situational spot early in the season, so it should have an excellent chance of getting back to the Big Ten title game.
As far as my College Football Playoff prediction, I'm going to say we have a similar conference breakdown as last year, with one exception: four SEC teams instead of three and one fewer Big Ten team. And I'm going to go out on a limb and say that team won't be Oregon.
Who else could emerge if Ohio State and Penn State get there? It very well could be USC if Lincoln Riley unlocks the full potential of Jayden Maiava, who will get to work all offseason as the known starter with one of the best wide receiver duos in the country.
It's hard to argue with Riley's track record with quarterback development, and Maiava's skill set is a perfect fit on paper.
And while the Trojan roster does have other questions (offensive line in particular), I do expect the defense to continue its ascent under second-year coordinator D'Anton Lynn.
This team certainly has 10-win potential with a huge nonconference road win opportunity against Notre Dame. I also like their very easy schedule to start the season, where they can work out some kinks on both sides of the ball.
I'd be more than happy if this comes down to the road date with Oregon late in the year.
I'm lower than the market on the Ducks (see below), who have a much tougher hill to climb after going from two veteran seniors under center in Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel to a first-time full-time starter in Dante Moore, whom I'm not a buyer of.
Other Big Ten Bets
- Minnesota Under 7.5 (-140)
- UCLA Under 5.5 (-135)
- Oregon Under 10.5 Wins (-160)
Big 12 Win Totals, Futures
UCF Under 5.5 Wins (-115)
I'm pretty in line with the market for most of the Big 12, which should have plenty of chaos throughout the conference slate once again.
Don't be surprised if this race comes down to tiebreakers like last year, when a whopping nine teams still had a chance at reaching the title game heading into the final weekend.
I did play one win total late with UCF under 5.5 after it was announced that Cam Fancher won the quarterback competition. I think that's very telling that it could be a long season for the Knights in Scott Frost's first season back in Orlando.
On the other side of the ball, Alex Grinch takes over as defensive coordinator, which likely won't end well.
I also didn't love the talent they brought in during a complete roster overhaul, so I'll happily fade the Fancher/Grinch combo, especially considering I project a tad under five wins.
Long Shot: Houston to Win Big 12 (+3500)
If there's one power conference where a lottery ticket has a chance, it's the Big 12.
Head coach Willie Fritz has orchestrated countless quick turnarounds at every level since the 1990s, and I loved both coordinators he brought in this offseason.
If Conner Weigman can actually live up to his potential and hit his ceiling, the Cougars could very well find themselves in the mix of the potential chaos.
Other Big 12 Considerations
My actual pick to win the Big 12 is Baylor, but I'm still sorting out when I want to come in on the Bears, who have a very difficult nonconference schedule that could lead to some critical bumps and bruises — and a potential better price during the season.
I do show a tad bit of value on the West Virginia over but not enough to likely get involved there with so much uncertainty in Rich Rod's first year with a complete roster overhaul.
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Conference USA Win Totals, Futures
Sam Houston Under 4.5 Wins (+110)
It could be a long year for the Bearkats, who welcome new head coach Phil Longo into town to implement a completely new offensive scheme that really doesn't suit incumbent starting quarterback Hunter Watson.
I'd imagine there's a very good chance Mabrey Mettauer (who came along with Longo from Wisconsin and is listed as the co-starter) eventually takes over as QB1.
Regardless, there will be growing pains for a unit that has its most starting experience on the offensive line, which will have to learn a brand new scheme.
While I don't have high hopes for the new offense in Year 1, it's the defense I'm most concerned about. This group could take as big a step back as any in the country after losing its top 16 tacklers and a very good coordinator.
This side of the ball was absolutely ravaged by the portal and will now have to rely on many lower-level guys.
To illustrate how rough things looked in the spring, they only had three scholarship defensive linemen — one of whom transferred out.
It's also not ideal that the defense (with 0 returning starters) might have to deal with a new, more uptempo offense that could struggle with efficiency.
It's also an insanely difficult schedule for a CUSA team with plenty of difficult travel (road games at Hawaii and Oregon State) and home games an hour from campus with its stadium under renovation.
The Bearkats do avoid top dog Liberty in league play but won't benefit from seeing either Kennesaw or Missouri State.
They are also severely lacking in the depth department, which could come back to bite them at the end of the season for two of their easiest games on the schedule at home against Delaware and FIU.
Long Shot: UTEP to Win CUSA (+1800)
Why not take a flier in CUSA? UTEP was certainly better than its record last year, having led in the fourth quarter in three of its losses, but struggles were expected in the first year of a new "Blue Blaze" fast-paced offense under head coach Scotty Walden.
The team now has much more familiarity with Walden's scheme and has gotten significantly bigger and stronger across the board.
If some of the youth can step up (top-two recruiting class in CUSA past two seasons) and former five-star Malachi Nelson finally figures it out at quarterback, the Miners could surprise a few teams in league play, especially if their aggressive defense can cause Havoc.
From a scheduling perspective, they play three of the projected top five, but all of those contests come at home.
If Miner Nation can find a way to pick off Liberty and/or Louisiana Tech at home midseason, it could creep up the standings with a laughable finish to the season that includes:
- at Sam Houston (not on campus)
- at Kennesaw
- Jacksonville State
- at Missouri State
- New Mexico State
- at Delaware
That's basically an FCS schedule from a few years back.
They'll need to stay healthy with depth questionable in certain areas, especially defensive line, but that's everywhere in CUSA. They'll also need Nelson or one of the other quarterbacks to hit, but there's potential here in a horrid conference.
FBS Independents Win Totals, Futures
UConn Under 7.5 Wins (-120)
Fresh off its best season in 20 years, I'm expecting a crash back down to earth for the UConn Huskies, who finished 9-4 after a bowl victory to close out 2024.
I'm expecting major regression for a defense that must replenish a number of key players. Additionally, the offense should take a major step back after losing two stalwart tackles to the NFL and a guard to the CFL.
One of the most underrated hires prior to last season was UConn bringing in defensive coordinator Matt Brock, who did some really amazing things schematically in his first year in East Hartford.
The Huskies masked their coverage very well and used a myriad of stunts up front to confuse opposing offenses. They were also very unpredictable from a coverage standpoint on a week-to-week basis, making it more difficult for opposing game plans.
With that said, the defense only returns two starters, and it's not a program bringing in a ton of talent on an annual basis. I'm particularly concerned about the drop-off in the front seven based on the replacements they brought in.
Head coach Jim Mora has done a tremendous job with this program, but it will likely be tougher sledding in 2025 for a program looking for its first back-to-back winning seasons in 15 years.
A decent floor does exist with home games against CCSU, Ball State, FIU and UAB — and the schedule is one of the 15 easiest in the country — but I believe they're much more likely to win seven than eight games.
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MAC Win Totals, Futures
Ohio Under 7.5 Wins (-130)
Stay tuned for my MAC Manifesto next week for a breakdown of this bet, along with every team in the nation's premier conference.
MAC Long Shots
- Central Michigan 22-1
- Bowling Green 20-1
It's the MAC. Throw some darts.
Mountain West Win Totals, Futures
UNLV Under 8.5 Wins (-135)
This is primarily a pure numbers play based on my projections. Additionally, I'm not a believer in either of the two quarterbacks that the Rebels will both apparently play (at least to start) in Alex Orji and Anthony Colandrea.
While plenty of numbers from last year suggest looming regression, this is basically a brand-new team that could start eight transfers on each side of the ball under new head coach Dan Mullen.
Although, I'm fairly confident the special teams play will fall off a cliff in Sin City, and I'm not a fan of either coordinator hire.
It's possible many of the former P4 castoffs hit in the portal, but I'll pay to see it despite a fairly easy schedule with a painless back end that could prove beneficial for a team that could take a while to build cohesiveness with only two returning starters.
Long Shot: Air Force to Win Mountain West (+2000)
Air Force basically had a full roster reset last season after losing all of its super seniors, and it showed with a rare disastrous season under Troy Calhoun, who returns for his 19th season in Colorado Springs.
Look no further than the offensive line (obviously an important component of the triple option), which had 0 returning starts while also dealing with injuries throughout the season.
They did start to figure some things out up front late in the season, which coincided with a 4-0 finish after starting 1-7.
The Mountain West is completely wide open this season, and I do expect a major bounce back from a much more experienced Air Force squad that will have to play each of the projected top four in the league. However, it does at least host Boise State in a pivotal early-season matchup.
If Air Force can find the right quarterback (currently an ongoing battle between Liam Szarka and Josh Johnson, who could also rotate early), it should be much feistier from start to finish this season.
Other Mountain West Considerations
- Hawaii Over 6.5
- Air Force Over 5.5
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Pac-12 Win Totals, Futures
I heavily considered the Washington State under, but it's been beaten down too much to get involved with at this point.
I'm passing on anything preseason involving the Beavers and Cougars, who will play each other twice in the regular season in an extreme rarity in college football.
SEC Win Totals, Futures
South Carolina Under 7 Wins (+125)
I'm selling the Gamecocks, who should see a major drop-off defensively following a significant talent drain on that side of the ball with five players getting selected in the first four rounds of the NFL Draft.
Additionally, South Carolina saw eight other players sign UDFA contracts with NFL teams and one other get a camp invite. It's just not at the point as a program where it can replenish that much NFL talent.
While LaNorris Sellers is back at quarterback, he still has a few deficiencies in the passing department. He'll also have to make do without star running back Raheim "Rocket" Sanders in the RPO game and his security blanket tight end, Joshua Simon, who led the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns.
The offensive line should also take a step back after losing three starters. It likely won't duplicate a season in which it had only one missed start up front.
And as I mentioned previously, the defense loses its top four defensive tackles, SEC Defensive Player of the Year Kyle Kennard at defensive end (which will make life tougher for Dylan Stewart), 212 tackles at the linebacker position (and now 0 career FBS starts) and its two best defensive backs to the NFL.
Even the special teams lost all five key contributors and could take a major step back.
While some have South Carolina marked as a CFP sleeper after it barely missed the show last season, I just don't see it. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if it struggled to make a bowl if there are injuries with one of the toughest schedules in the country.
The Gamecocks' road games in league play include Ole Miss, Missouri, LSU and Texas A&M. So, it must look better at home, right? Well, they face Alabama Clemson, and Oklahoma in Columbia.
And I personally wouldn't be shocked if they lost the season opener on a neutral field against Virginia Tech.
SEC Long Shots
- Texas A&M to Make CFP (+240)
- LSU to Win SEC (+750)
While I believe the SEC ultimately gets four teams into the College Football Playoff, it might be a bit more wide open up at the top than many believe, with many of the top teams trotting out first-time starting quarterbacks.
Two of the teams in the mix who don't have that worry are Texas A&M and LSU, who could benefit from one or two of those other top teams falling flat due to poor play under center.
In regard to LSU, it had the No. 1 portal class and continues to recruit at a high level. The talent is undoubtedly there, starting with the quarterback I trust the most in the league at this very moment in Garrett Nussmeier.
The defense should continue to improve under coordinator Blake Baker, and maybe the Tigers can have some balance this year with any semblance of a rushing attack.
That's one of the potential tailwinds of a completely rebuilt offensive line that lost four to the NFL.
It also could go completely sideways, especially from a pass protection standpoint, which is why I'm more interested in buying some upside on LSU rather than investing in a win total.
To me, Texas A&M has an extremely high floor with a dominant rushing attack that should thrive behind one of the nation's best offensive lines.
I also trust head coach Mike Elko to fix a defense that had plenty of communication and coverage miscues last season.
If Elko can pull that off, it should marry perfectly with a rush-heavy offense that won't need Marcel Reed to do as much passing, where he still has major deficiencies.
Other SEC Bets
- Tennessee Under 8.5 (-135)
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Sun Belt Win Totals, Futures
Marshall Under 5.5 Wins (-115)
This is the only bet I placed in the offseason for the Sun Belt. However, it has been pretty much bet down to where I'm only showing a bit of value.
I'd probably stay clear at this point, but it should be a very long season for the Herd, who lose their entire staff, stud quarterback, top five rushers, top four receivers, four starting offensive linemen and 16 of their top 17 tacklers.
They were absolutely decimated by the portal and are now void of talent and FBS-level experience at almost every level. Even the special teams should plummet in efficiency.
Other Sun Belt Considerations
- Coastal Carolina Over 5.5
- Southern Miss Under 5.5
I do show some value on the Coastal Carolina over, as I love the hire of defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson, who did some tremendous schematic things with an extremely stingy Louisiana Tech defense last year.
I also show value on the Southern Miss under, as I'd have to upgrade the Golden Eagles 17.5 points from the end of last season to get to their current win total.
While I did upgrade them more than any other team following a mass relocation of the Marshall staff and roster to Hattiesburg, I'm not quite at that level.
With that said, I could be way off in either direction with so much uncertainty.
It will certainly be a fascinating watch to see how Charles Huff does in the same conference he just won at a different location with a bevy of the same players, including quarterback Braylon Braxton.
I haven't gotten to the window yet on either, but that's where I stand on the Sun Belt, where I don't have any conference futures.
