Unlike the NFL, where every team plays on the first weekend, college football has a unique Week 0 in which only a handful of teams make their debut.
Last weekend, we saw nine FBS squads kick off their seasons with eight of those nine back in action again in Week 1 against an opponent making its season debut.
And if you're curious, a pair of FCS teams were in action in Week 0 that will play an FBS opponent in Week 1, including:
- Nicholls (won 21-6 vs. Incarnate Word) at Troy
- Tarleton State (won 42-0 vs. Portland State) at Army
It's worth noting that Tarelton is traveling across the country after playing in Oregon on a short week. That's certainly less than ideal when it comes to preparing for a unique scheme.
Let's take a look at some college football trends and NCAAF picks for Week 0 teams that are playing again in Week 1.
College Football Predictions: The Effect of Week 0
Historical Look at a Unique Early-Season Situation
The natural question becomes what's more important: Shaking off the rust and working out the kinks in live action, or holding a potential film, rest and preparation edge.
Teams that have yet to play can see what their opponent did in Week 0. Meanwhile, they can reap the benefits of the unknown as it pertains to their own respective game plans and wrinkles.
The latter can be especially important in college football, a sport filled with an abundance of coaching and roster turnover each offseason — and even more so in today's new landscape.
Moreover, teams making their debut could potentially enjoy a preparation edge.
While their opponent would have spent time preparing for their first matchup, teams that didn't play in the opening week had no such concerns. They have a leg up when it comes to allocating time to get ready for that Week 1 clash.
The extra rest — and sometimes lack of travel and/or injuries — also certainly doesn't hurt.
Look at Kansas State and Iowa State, which both have to travel 4,000 miles back to the States for their home openers against North Dakota and South Dakota, respectively. And you know their sole focus in the offseason was that first massive conference game in the wide-open Big 12.
College Football Trends: Historical Results for Week 0 Teams
Based solely on historic against-the-spread terms, the answer to this question is clear: the team making its debut holds an edge.
Teams playing their season opener against an opponent that has already played have covered at around a 55% clip historically, including FCS teams.
However, the FCS market is much less efficient, hence the lower limits. Therefore, if we isolate FBS teams, since 2005, they have actually fared even better at 61-38 ATS (61.6%) following a rough 1-4 result last season.
For reference, I only included games played in August and September. That removes eight season openers in 2020 that involved Mountain West and Pac-12 teams that started late due to pandemic disruptions.
Week 1 Games That Fit the Trend
Only two games fit the trend this year since Kansas State, Iowa State, Kansas and Western Kentucky will each face FCS teams. Additionally, UNLV and Sam Houston play each other, while Stanford has an early-season bye week.
Georgia Southern (+1) vs. Fresno State
Fresno State's offense looked rough against Kansas.
After losing quarterback Mikey Keene to Michigan and all three wide receivers from an underrated room, the Bulldogs could muster only 216 total yards against a Jayhawk defense that came into the game with plenty of question marks.
They finished with 37 rushing yards on 29 carries, and new transfer quarterback E.J. Warner had less than 200 passing yards with a pair of interceptions against a rebuilt Kansas secondary that lost two All-American cornerbacks.
It was not a pretty showing for new head coach Matt Entz, who wants to feature a ball-control, run-heavy offense.
I'd certainly side with the trend in that game.
The under is also intriguing at anything above 51 against Georgia Southern's Air Raid that should feature plenty of short passes, led by returning quarterback JC French.
Fresno should have more success running the ball than it did last week against a P4 team, especially since Georgia Southern has questions at defensive tackle, but I don't expect its offense to light up the scoreboard.
Hawaii vs. Arizona (-17.5)
Arizona was my initial look, but the Wildcats have taken money over the past few days, moving from -13.5 to -17.5, so it's probably a stay-away at this point.
Keep in mind, Hawaii's young stud quarterback, Micah Alejado, injured his ankle in Week 0. He should still start, but that's definitely a concern after he was clearly not at 100% at the end of last week's thrilling victory over Stanford.
While I'm not high on the Wildcats this year, Noah Fifita does return at quarterback (although star wide receiver Tetairoa McMillian moved on to the NFL).
They should also have much better luck on the injury front after a disastrous season in that regard in 2024.
