The transfer portal has made it incredibly difficult to handicap teams in the preseason.
Coming into the season, 48 of the 136 teams at the FBS level were tasked with replacing 50% or more of their statistical production year-over-year.
If you go back before the transfer portal opened fully in October 2018, you’ll find that most teams had far more roster continuity on an annual basis. Only 11 programs needed to replace 50% or more of their returning production prior to the 2018 season.
When you combine the roster turnover with the coaching carousel, teams can surprise in both directions.
Clemson is the obvious example of a team that has fallen miles short of expectations, but who's Clemson’s equivalent on the other side of the expectation scale? It’s 4-0 North Texas.
Let's dive into the college football futures and my NCAAF predictions for the American Conference.
College Football Futures, Predictions
The media selected North Texas to finish eighth in the American back in July. ESPN’s Bill Connelly slotted the Mean Green 95th in the FBS in the preseason.
It appeared that UNT’s open quarterback competition between Drew Mestemaker and Reese Poffenbarger had pundits concerned.
Equally troubling was UNT’s rebuilt defense, which welcomed in eight new starters. All of this uncertainty prevented just about anyone from predicting they’d win the American.
A month into the season, and two things are clear.
Mestemaker, the walk-on-turned-star, is the perfect triggerman for Eric Morris’ Air Raid offense. Pro Football Focus rates him as the second-best passer in the country due to his accuracy and turnover avoidance.
Through four starts, he has completed 70% of his pass attempts, accounted for 11 total touchdowns, and he has yet to turn the ball over.
He has also delivered in the clutch, pulling out a pair of overtime wins on the road, including North Texas' most recent triumph, a 45-38 win over reigning AAC champ Army at Michie Stadium.
The defense is far from perfect, but defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity has elevated the Mean Green D from a laughing stock to a feisty bunch in short order.
After a disastrous 2024 in which they finished 119th in scoring and 128th in total defense, things are looking up across the board. Cassity’s defense ranks first in takeaways with 10, 37th in total defense, 47th in scoring and 53rd in tackles for loss.
On the special teams side of things, Kali Nguma has yet to miss a kick this season (5-of-5 FGs, 23-of-23 XPs), and UNT’s punt and kickoff coverage has been solid.
North Texas has exceeded preseason expectations in all three phases of the game, which leads us to the schedule. This slate may as well be a red carpet to the American Conference Championship in early December.
Morris’ team avoids Memphis and Tulane while getting all of their critical conference games at home. That means Navy, USF and UTSA must all travel to Denton to take on North Texas at DATCU Stadium.
The home/away splits also position UNT to be favored in seven of its next eight games. It'll be a short home underdog to USF in three weeks. The trio of Memphis-Navy-USF all play each other, making it extremely likely that a 7-1 American record will be good enough to appear in the conference title game.
Shopping around this time of year is critical because North Texas is now in the mix to nab the G5’s autobid to the College Football Playoff. Unfortunately, there's very little value baked into that happening (+600), compared to the Mean Green simply winning the American (+550).
If you can find a CFP appearance future at +800 or better today or in the coming weeks, it’s worth a bet.
Pick: North Texas To Win American Conference (+550)
