Updated Georgia Election Polls & Betting Odds: Trump Has Edge over Biden in Betting Market

Updated Georgia Election Polls & Betting Odds: Trump Has Edge over Biden in Betting Market article feature image
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Drew Angerer/Getty Images. Pictured: Donald Trump

Georgia Election Odds

Candidate
Odds
Implied Probability
Donald Trump
-149
55.7%
Joe Biden
+110
44.3%

Odds as of Tuesday, Nov. 3 and via European sportsbook Betfair. If you’re new to betting, Joe Biden’s +110 odds mean a $100 bet would net $110 if he wins Georgia. Convert odds using our Betting Odds Calculator. Also note that the implied probabilities above do not include the tax the book charges.


Georgia Polls

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Polling Average
Donald Trump
47.4%
Joe Biden
48.5%

538 Georgia Projection

Candidate
FiveThirtyEight Projection
Donald Trump
42%
Joe Biden
58%

Polling averages and projections as of Nov. 3 and via FiveThirtyEight. Go to their 2020 Election Forecast to learn more.


Georgia Presidential Race Updates

Tuesday, Nov. 3: The betting market hasn’t moved in Georgia for several weeks, giving Donald Trump the slight edge at 55.7%, well ahead of the polls and forecasts.

Friday, Oct. 16: With less than three weeks until Election Day, the betting market gives Donald Trump a 55.7% implied probability of winning Georgia compared to Joe Biden’s 44.3% implied probability.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast, which simulates the election 40,000 times, projects this race to be a dead heat with Trump and Biden each winning 50 out of every 100 times. The site’s average of polls reflects a close race, with Biden barely leading Trump, 47.8% to 46.6%.


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With the betting odds, polling data and FiveThirtyEight’s model projecting this to be close, the results could be pivotal in determining who wins the electoral college. With 16 of the 538 total electoral votes, Georgia is tied with Michigan for the sixth-most electoral votes in the country.

Trump won Georgia by 5.1% in 2016, becoming the sixth Republican nominee to win the state since 1996, though it was a slimmer margin of victory than Mitt Romney’s 7.82% edge over Barack Obama in 2012.

That said, Georgia is once again considered to be a battleground state, with the Democratic Party focused on regaining the ground it had previously lost.

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