Serie A Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Hellas Verona vs. Parma (Wednesday, July 1)

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Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Gervinho

Parma at Hellas Verona Odds, Pick

Parma odds +270 [BET NOW]
Hellas Verona odds +110 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +225 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (+104/-129)
[BET NOW]
Time Wednesday at 3:45 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


A win on Wednesday for either Hellas Verona and Parma on Wednesday could inspire an unexpected run to the Europa League.

Verona and Parma are tied on 39 points and are just six points behind Napoli for Serie A’s final Europa League berth. With Napoli facing off against red-hot Atalanta on Thursday, this is a golden opportunity for either team to potentially pull within three points of European football.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona had an epic collapse in their last match with Sassuolo, blowing a 3-1 lead with 13 minutes to play and giving up a 97th-minute equalizer. It was an atypical performance from one of Serie A’s most consistent sides.

Verona have been a strong home side all season, taking 24 points from 14 matches thanks to a strong defense which only allows 1.20 expected goals against per game at Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi.

Before a loss to Napoli last week Verona had taken 16 of a possible 21 points in their last seven matches at the Stadio Marc’Antonio Bentegodi, while posting a +0.60 expected goals differential per match (1.74 xGF, 1.14 xGA).

Parma

Parma is the most overrated team in Serie A based on expected points. According to their expected goals differential, Parma should actually be in 16th place, but instead I Crociati are fighting for European football.

It is truly stunning the difference between actual versus expected goals:

Goals Expected Goals
For 38 31.31
Against 35 45.52

Parma have struggled to get results on the road, especially against the top of the table. Parma have only taken five points in six road matches against the top half of the table and they haven’t really been competitive, sporting a -1.26 xG differential per match (0.78 xGF, 2.05 xGA).

Analysis 

Given how overrated Parma is, I think this match will end in a Verona win and my model suggests there is value on the home side, as well:

  • Verona projected odds: -122 (55.01% win probability)
  • Parma projected odds: +400 (19.99%)
  • Draw projected odds: +300 (25.00%)
  • Verona projected xG: 1.60
  • Parma projected xG: 0.92
Pick: Hellas Verona +110

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