USMNT vs. Jamaica Odds, Picks, Prediction: CONCACAF Gold Cup Betting Preview (July 25)

USMNT vs. Jamaica Odds, Picks, Prediction: CONCACAF Gold Cup Betting Preview (July 25) article feature image
Credit:

Bill Barrett/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: United States goalkeeper Matt Turner.

  • The United States squares off against Jamaica on Sunday in Gold Cup quarterfinal action.
  • The Americans, who cruised through the group stage with three wins, face a familiar knockout-round opponent.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the match below and details why he finds value backing the Reggae Boyz in this contest.

United States vs. Jamaica Odds

United States Odds -215
Jamaica Odds +540
Draw +320
Over/Under 2.5 (-109 / -124)
Day | Time Sunday | 10 p.m. ET
How To Watch FS1 | Univision | fuboTV
Odds updated Sunday morning via DraftKings.

The United States men’s national team aims to reach its 11th consecutive CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinal Sunday when it meets a dangerous quarterfinal opponent in Jamaica in Texas.

The Americans won all three of their group matches, accumulating the best goal difference after defeating Haiti, Martinique and Canada in Group B action.

Jamaica secured its own place in the quarterfinals with two wins to open Group C before heavily rotating its squad in a 1-0 loss to Costa Rica. That strategy resulted in a second-place group finish and another meeting with a familiar foe.

The U.S. defeated Jamaica in the 2019 semifinals and the 2017 final. Jamaica upset the Americans in the 2015 semifinal round.

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Fast Starts Keeping United States on Front Foot

On paper, the Americans emerged as the top performers in the group stage, but by the eye test, they also rode their luck.

To their credit, this squad of younger, mostly MLS-based Americans started each match on the right foot, scoring inside the opening 15 minutes in all three contests.

However, against Haiti and Canada, the performances deteriorated as the game wore on. Haiti nearly matched the U.S. in expected goals, according some statisticians.

The Canadians clearly had more of the better chances in the second half of their game against the United States, despite losing strikers Ayo Akinola and Cyle Larin to  injuries.

Goals change games of course. And some of those chances Haiti and Canada created were only because they had no choice but to adventure forward after falling behind.

Regardless, this American squad is not showing much killer instinct outside the 6-1 thrashing of tiny Martinique aside.

On the injury front, center back Henry Kessler has replaced 2020 MLS Defender of the Year Walker Zimmerman, who picked up an injury in the first half against Canada.

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Jamaica Consistently Making Deep Gold Cup Runs 

The Reggae Boyz have one of the few rosters in CONCACAF worthy of considering as a dark horse to win this biennial continental tournament.

Jamaica has nearly pulled off the twice, reaching consecutive Gold Cup finals in 2015 and 2017. Yet, there’s also a sense the current squad assembled by manager Theodore Whitmore should do more.

Part of that is a lack of familiarity. Whitmore has aggressively recruited players based in England and elsewhere in Europe with family ties to the Caribbean island to join his squad.

The result is a squad that arguably matches or exceeds the United States in several key positions, though not overall squad depth.

Bayer Leverkeusen winger Leon Bailey is the only true European star on either club. His potential transfer fee is valued at $38.5 million by Transfermarkt after he scored nine goals and assisted on eight more this past Bundesliga season.

Bailey’s attacking midfield partner — Bobby Reid — is the only player to take the field Sunday with recent regular Premier League experience. Andre Blake is the reigning MLS goalkeeper of the year. And the majority of Whitmore’s roster is based on first- or second-division clubs in Europe (mainly England) or the United States.

Yet, Jamaica needed an 87th-minute goal from Junior Flemmings to see off Guadeloupe in a 2-1 win, and couldn’t capitalize on its abundant chances — rotated squad or not — in its loss to Costa Rica.

Jamaica made no roster additions before the quarterfinals, though Ravel Morrison appears to have left the team for a trial at Derby County.

Right back Kemar Lawrence had to leave Tuesday’s loss to Costa Rica with an apparent thigh issue after he was on the bench in the first two games.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Let’s shoot straight here. The value is clear and it’s with Jamaica. The Reggae Boyz have their share of recent wins against the U.S. and Mexico, a track record of Gold Cup success and a roster with legitimate talent.

They’re easily as talented as the healthy portion of Canada’s roster and more balanced. However, oddsmakers gave the Canadians roughly a 2-in-9 chance of a win against the Americans. They say it’s only 2 in 12 for Jamaica.

Bottom line, that’s just not accurate. The question is whether you want to make a wager that’s good value in a short international tournament, even if it might only come good 20%-25% of the time.

If not, there’s other ways to use said value. The Double Chance wager of Jamaica or Draw is up to a price of +170 odds, with an implied 37% probability.

Betting yes on both teams to score is currently at +110 odds and leveraging the Jamaicans’ value since it’s implied the underdogs are less likely to be the ones scoring.

Or there’s an Asian Handicap play on Jamaica at +1.5 goals at -177 odds and an implied 64% probability, which pays so long as the U.S. doesn’t win by multiple goals.

The 2015 and 2017 Gold Cup meetings were both decided by a single goal in games where both teams scored. In 2019, the United States’ 3-1 win teetered on a knife’s edge until Christian Pulisic completed his brace in the 87th minute.

The Chelsea star won’t be in Texas for this match, though. As they might say there before a game of the other kind of football, take the Reggae Boys plus the points.

Pick: Jamaica +1.5 (-177)

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