Paris Saint-Germain and Arsenal will face off today in the second leg of the Champions League semifinals, after the French side won 1-0 in London last week. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. EDT at the Parc des Princes in Paris.
PSG is favored at a +110 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-150o / +115u) goals.
Let's get into my Arsenal vs. PSG prediction.
Arsenal vs. PSG Odds, Prediction
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -135 | 2.5 -150o / 115u | +235 |
| PSG Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +100 | 2.5 -150o / 115u | +110 |
Arsenal vs. PSG spread: Arsenal +0.5 (-135), PSG -0.5 (+100)
Arsenal vs. PSG over/under: 2.5 goals (-150o / +115u)
Arsenal vs. PSG moneyline: Arsenal +235, Draw +270, PSG +110
Arsenal vs. PSG best bet:PSG Moneyline and Over 4.5 Total Corners (+292)
Arsenal Prediction
In recent years, Arsenal’s biggest opponent has often been Arsenal itself. In the Premier League, they’ve come close to reclaiming glory (having not won the title since 2004), only to drop easy points against weaker teams.
Now it’s do-or-die in Paris. If they can overturn the 1-0 deficit, they’ll reach a final for the first time in 19 years and aim to win the Champions League for the first time in their storied history. A loss would see them return to London empty-handed, closing out another season without silverware.
They’ll be hoping to break that streak, drawing inspiration from their recent 2-1 win over Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu in the quarterfinals. In the Round of 16, they also delivered a statement performance on the road, thrashing PSV 7-1 in the Netherlands.
In the first leg, Mikel Arteta’s side struggled due to a lack of clinical finishing—and especially from the tight man-marking on Martin Odegaard. The Norwegian midfielder couldn’t find his rhythm, registering just one key pass and losing possession 13 times.
Odegaard picked up a knock in last Saturday’s loss to Bournemouth, but he’s expected to be pain-free and available for the crucial match in Paris. Jurrien Timber, Kai Havertz, Jorginho, and Riccardo Calafiori are all doubts, while Gabriel Magalhaes and Gabriel Jesus have been ruled out through injury.
PSG Prediction
What PSG is achieving in this Champions League run could be straight out of a movie. They looked set for elimination in the league phase, but three consecutive wins pushed them through to the playoffs as the 15th seed.
After demolishing Brest 10-0 on aggregate, they reached the Round of 16. Once again, they seemed to have one foot out the door after a 1-0 home loss to Liverpool. But they flipped the tie in England and stayed strong on English soil, eliminating a tough Aston Villa side in the quarterfinals.
Fate dealt them another Premier League opponent, and far from backing down, they rose to the occasion once again, winning 1-0 in London. Now, they’ll look to finish the job at home, take revenge for their 2020 final defeat, and lift the first Champions League trophy in club history.
All of this has come in their first season without Kylian Mbappé. Neymar and Lionel Messi are also gone, but Ousmane Dembélé and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have stepped up with goals that have made those absences barely noticeable.
Dembélé, who scored the lone goal in the first leg, was doubtful due to a muscle injury, but coach Luis Enrique has confirmed he’s recovered and will be on the squad for the decisive clash.
Arsenal vs. PSG Pick
PSG has progressed in 18 of the 19 knockout ties in which they won the first leg away from home. The only exception came against Manchester United in the 2018/19 Round of 16, when they were eliminated on away goals (2-0 away, 1-3 home).
Arsenal, meanwhile, has never overturned a home defeat in the first leg of a European knockout tie, losing all five such matchups. The most recent came against Barcelona in the 2015/16 Round of 16 (0-2 home, 1-3 away).
This will be the third meeting between these teams in the current Champions League, but the first to be played at the Parc des Princes. PSG won 1-0 in London last week, but in that same stadium, they were beaten 2-0 on October 1, with goals from Kai Havertz and Bukayo Saka.
With two Spanish managers who know each other well—Luis Enrique (PSG) and Mikel Arteta (Arsenal)—this promises to be a highly tactical showdown. It’s a win-or-go-home match, and standout goalkeepers Gianluigi Donnarumma and David Raya are expected to play key roles.
In what looks like a fairly even matchup, the advantage appears to lie with PSG’s first-leg lead and the energy of playing in front of their home fans. Given their heavy use of wingers, over 4.5 total corners for the French side could be a smart play to include in a Same-Game Parlay.
Arsenal vs. PSG Pick: PSG Moneyline and Over 4.5 total corners (+292, DraftKings)
