World Cup: Public Bettors Avoiding Draws for Argentina-France and Uruguay-Portugal

World Cup: Public Bettors Avoiding Draws for Argentina-France and Uruguay-Portugal article feature image

Kevin C. Cox, Getty Images. Pictured: France celebrating vs. Peru

After a one-day break, World Cup action is back on Saturday with the start of the Round of 16. France will take on Argentina in the early match, followed by Uruguay vs. Portugal.

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Here’s a breakdown of the market for both matches and which sides the sharps/public are betting.

France vs. Argentina (10 a.m. ET)

Moneyline Odds: France +140, Argentina +255, Draw +210
Odds to Advance: France -145, Argentina +125

Public bettors are picking a side to win in regulation with 46% of bets on France and 44% of bets on Argentina. Most of the early line movement has been toward Argentina, but there’s also been a slight shift toward the draw despite attracting just 10% of tickets.


The low of total of 2 goals has enticed more than 80% of bettors to take the over, but sharper money is responsible for juice on the under. This is also a good sign for contrarian bettors hoping for a draw.

Bettors are just about split on the goal-lines of France -0.5 (+140) and Argentina +0.5 (-150).

Uruguay vs. Portugal (2 p.m. ET)

Moneyline Odds: Uruguay +192, Portugal +197, Draw +193
Odds to Advance: Uruguay -120, Portugal +100

You won’t see many matches with nearly identical three-way moneylines, but that’s what Uruguay and Portugal bring to the table in the Round of 16. Despite similar probabilities for all three results, the market breakdown shows little love for the draw once again:

Uruguay (45%)
Portugal (44%)
Draw (11%)

There was early line movement in Uruguay’s favor, but odds are basically back to the opening numbers. This could be another contrarian draw to take, especially with a low total of 2 goals and heavy juice on the under (-133).

Again, public bettors have had no problem taking the over, which has accounted for 65% of O/U tickets.