Carlos Alcaraz vs. Karen Khachanov French Open Odds, Picks, Preview (May 28)

Alcaraz vs. Khachanov Odds

The fourth round of the French Open is here.

As the tournament progresses, so will the level of tennis. We have a great one on Sunday as Carlos Alcaraz takes on Karen Khachanov.

Alcaraz has already a saved match point in round two en route to his arrival in the fourth round. He persevered through the challenge and found a straight sets victory over Sebastian Korda on Friday.

Khachanov has quietly but comfortably made his way to the fourth round. As he often does at the French Open, he has handled his peers with little problems.

Alcaraz enters as a massive favorite for the fourth straight match. He has covered in two-of-three so far, so is he set to do it again?

Let’s find out.

Khachanov Silently Going About His Business

As Khachanov is not known to be a clay-courter, he is never breaking the headlines at Roland Garros. Based on his results, however, he should be an acknowledged threat for deep runs.

With three wins this year, including one over world No. 11 Cameron Norrie – who had a solid clay season last year – Khachanov is now 17-5 in the main draw at this tournament.

His five losses have come to Novak Djokovic, Dominic Thiem, Alexander Zverev, Andy Murray and Kei Nishikori, showing his defeats have come to the highest of competition.

Including this year's campaign, Khachanov has scored a win over a top-20 opponent in five of his six appearances.

The man comes to play at Roland Garros.

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Alcaraz Doing Alcaraz Things

Alcaraz never seems to worry. Whether he’s facing a break or match point, Alcaraz appears to be calm, cool, and collected.

With his lightning speed and blistering forehand, Alcaraz seems to have the upper hand in every point, whether he’s on the defense or attack. While the courts of Roland Garros aren't perfect for him, he's still a natural on the clay and he seems to be finding his rhythm.

When watching Alcaraz, it is clear that he plays with heavy confidence. Never afraid to go for his shots, he fires absurd angles off both wings while throwing in perfect drop shots.

Perhaps because of this, Alcaraz has had a bit of an issue with unforced errors. He has yet to play a match here with more winners than unforced errors.

Alcaraz was able to escape against Albert Ramos-Vinolas, but that's going to be something he needs to clean up, particularly as he is soon to match up against the world's best.

Betting Value

Alcaraz seems to thrive on the big stage, but Khachanov is no stranger to winning big matches – stepping up in Paris to win the Masters event there and earning a Silver Medal in the Tokyo Olympics.

The Spaniard does have a significant mental edge in this matchup. Filled with confidence, he won't change his game style in key moments, for better or worse. In complete contrast, Khachanov can struggle to close out sets at times and it can become very apparent when he's not mentally there.

This was evident against Norrie, when he gave a break back late in each of the last three sets of the match, making it much closer than it should have been.

If Khachanov can hold up on the mental end, however, he can test Alcaraz.

With the slight bit of extra time that the surface allows, Khachanov has been able to thrive off his forehand wing and send his opponent a heavy ball time and time again. Playing a night match tomorrow should only provide him with more time to do so on slower courts.

Khachanov’s level of play and potential deserve more respect than what the oddsmakers are giving him. I expect him to keep this match close, and if he is able to show mental fortitude, Khachanov may even make a run at an upset.

Picks: 0.9u Khachanov +7.5 Games (-104) | 0.1u Khachanov ML (+800)