Monday ATP Picks: Two Bets for the Tour’s Resumption in Metz, Including a Big Underdog to Watch Out For (Sept. 20)

Monday ATP Picks: Two Bets for the Tour’s Resumption in Metz, Including a Big Underdog to Watch Out For (Sept. 20) article feature image
Credit:

Christian Kaspar-Bartke/Getty Images. Pictured: Gregoire Barrere.

Looking for Tuesday’s picks? Click here.

After a week-long hiatus, the ATP Tour is back with stops in Metz and Nur-Sultan.

While these aren’t the most noteworthy tournaments, they’ll offer you chances to wake up and bet on a high-level sport. You can’t ask for much more than that.

Let’s get into Monday’s slate and see where opportunities may be present.

Match times are subject to change.

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Andreas Seppi (-500) vs. Timofey Skatov (+333)

7 a.m. ET, Astana Open

Despite the lack of ATP experience for Timofey Skatov, I think he has a really nice chance to pull an upset in the first round. His only other main draw match was in this tournament a year ago, and he got shellacked by Emil Ruusuvuori. The Kazakh only mustered two games, but this matchup projects to be far different.

Skatov has gained a significant amount of experience on tour this year, though almost all of it comes on clay. Because he’s played all but one of his matches on the surface, his odds are lengthened significantly against Seppi. This is Skatov’s biggest opportunity of the year, and he should be in far better shape physically and mentally than in his prior effort. Skatov will aim to extend rallies and grind from the baseline, as he typically does on clay.

While Andreas Seppi is far more experienced, both in his career and on hard courts, he’s played a lot of tennis recently. The 37-year-old has been on a nice run, with two upset wins in the US Open, further impacting the odds in this match.

Ultimately, these points add up to context playing a massive role in shaping these odds. It’s fair, but it’s over exaggerated in this scenario, giving Skatov incredible value at the number he’s being priced at.

Pick: Timofey Skatov +333 (BetMGM)

Vasek Pospisil (-142) vs. Gregoire Barrere (+118)

12 p.m. ET, Moselle Open

Kicking off the slate of tennis is a matchup between Canadian Vasek Pospisil and Frenchman Gregoire Barrere. The two come in with interesting form, as Barrere has mainly been competing on the Challenger Tour while Pospisil has been struggling on the ATP Tour.

Both players have been competing in hard-court events, though Barrere has had much more volume and better results against lesser competition than Pospisil has had to deal with. While Barrere is only 1-2 on the year in tour-level matches played on hard courts,  he’s 7-4 when accounting for all levels, and Pospisil is only 3-8 on hards throughout the season.

The pair haven’t played any tour-level matches in the past, but their styles are somewhat similar, with Pospisil placing a higher emphasis on getting free points and 1-2 combinations off of his first serve. He hasn’t been able to consistently find that form or ability to take initiative in points that he had been able to do throughout 2020, and it has caused the poor results Pospisil has experienced this season.

Barrere comes into the match needing a win far more than Pospisil, and being able to play in his home country serves as an added boost. Back him to take advantage of a lost Pospisil and notch a win.

Pick: Gregoire Barrere +118 (FanDuel)

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