Tuesday ATP Picks: Two Value Opportunities as Main Draws Ramp Up (Sept. 21)

Tuesday ATP Picks: Two Value Opportunities as Main Draws Ramp Up (Sept. 21) article feature image
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Credit: Grant Halverson, Getty. Marcos Giron hits a backhand at the Winston-Salem Open.

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Full first round slates get underway on Tuesday as qualifying draws wrapped up today, meaning there’s a greater number of matches to dive into. Let’s get right into it.

Match times are subject to change.

Arthur Rinderknech (-145) vs. Marcos Giron (+129)

5:00 a.m. ET, Moselle Open

In the events that followed the Olympics, Marcos Giron found his form on hard courts. The American is 8-5 since leaving Tokyo and has played quality tennis, though he hasn’t been able to breakthrough with high-ranking wins.

Arthur Rinderknech has had an impressive year, though his best results have been on clay. The big-hitting Frenchman has only played six tour level main draw matches on hard courts this year, maintaining a respectable 3-3 record. However, Rinderknech has only played 3 matches on hard courts since March, only appearing in Winston-Salem and at the US Open.

The two have only met once before, in the 2019 Sarasota challenger played on clay. It isn’t the best measuring stick for a comparison of the two players as both have improved significantly since the meeting and it was on a different surface, but Giron’s straight-set win in Florida does give me confidence that he can battle it out with Rinderknech and be comfortable from the baseline.

Getting Giron at plus-money in this situation is an appealing prospect as the match plays as a very tight matchup with a significant amount of uncertainty. If Rinderknech is uncomfortable with the matchup in only his fourth hard court match in six months, Giron should be able to take the initiative and control rallies. If Rinderknech is comfortable and playing at a solid level, Giron is still capable of hitting at a consistent rate and controlling his game to allow errors from Rinderknech. Go with the value here.

Pick: Marcos Giron +129 (FanDuel)

Egor Gerasimov (-110) vs. Benoit Paire (-115)

6:30 a.m. ET, Astana Open

Whenever Benoit Paire plays a match, it’s going to be good entertainment. But that entertainment doesn’t always translate into results, and that has been the case at many times this year. Paire is 12-25 on the year, but somehow his form has actually been on the rise.

The Frenchman is 5-4 in his last nine matches, by far his best period of the year, with all results coming on hard courts, not typically his preferred surface.

Gerasimov has also had an uninspiring year, with a 13-18 record and 1-4 summer hard court period. His best results on the year and throughout his career, however, come on indoor hard courts, which play far different than their outdoor counterparts. Indoor courts favor spot servers and power players due to the conditions being consistent and wind not playing a factor. This should suit Gerasimov against a player like Paire who prefers slower clay courts.

Further giving me confidence in the Belarusian is Gerasimov’s 2-0 record against Paire. The first of those two was played on an indoor hardcourt in Moscow, while the second was played on an outdoor hardcourt at the Australian Open.

I’ll go with the history and context and put my trust behind Gerasimov.

Pick: Egor Gerasimov -110 (BetMGM)

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