Wednesday ATP Picks: Two Underdogs With Value to Consider (Sept. 22)

Wednesday ATP Picks: Two Underdogs With Value to Consider (Sept. 22) article feature image
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Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Mikael Ymer hits a backhand at the Winston-Salem Open.

Looking for Thursday’s picks? Click here.

The latest pair of picks takes a look at second-round matchups across the ATP Tour on Wednesday’s busy card.

Check out below to see how I’m playing this slate of matches.

Match times are subject to change.

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Laslo Djere (+118) vs. Lorenzo Musetti (-142)

3:40 a.m ET, Astana Open

A battle of players off of their preferred surface projects to be a phenomenal matchup for Laslo Djere. His first-round opponent — Daniel Elahi Galan — has useful similarities to the game of Lorenzo Musetti, as both like to lengthen points from the baseline, as does Djere.

The Italian has faced off against Djere twice in the past, with the Serbian outlasting Musetti on both occasions. Both matches were played on clay, which is far different to the surface this one will be played on, though Djere will have some confidence stemming from his known ability to grind with Musetti.

Neither player has been in good form coming into Nur-Sultan, combining for just one win on the U.S. summer hardcourt period, that being Musetti’s first round US Open win against Emilio Nava, who doesn’t have a main draw ATP win. The teenage Musetti does have more pedigree on hard courts, doing well on both the ATP tour and challenger tour prior to the summer.

Nonetheless, I’m confident Djere will find similar success to the pair’s prior bouts, as his ability to play with flatter and deeper balls will force Musetti to retreat and give up court space. The heavy spin balls that he’ll want to play won’t have the same impact they would on clay, and Djere will take advantage.

Pick: Djere +118 via FanDuel

Mikael Ymer (+192) vs. Pablo Carreno Busta (-250)

1:20 p.m. ET, Moselle Open

This is a prime situation where you have a chance to ride a player that’s in excellent form over one that is just the opposite.

Mikael Ymer is 6-2 since leaving clay for the hardcourt summer swing, with his two losses coming to two of the most in form players on tour, Jenson Brooksby and Ilya Ivashka. Carreno Busta, on the other hand, is 4-3 during that period, playing a tournament more but picking up fewer wins than his Swedish foe.

Carreno Busta looked to be in control of his first round US Open match against qualifier Maxime Cressy before losing a two-set lead and completely falling apart in the fifth-set tiebreaker after having match points. A solid break is exactly what the Spaniard needed, but it certainly isn’t enough to take the value away from Ymer’s side.

He’s got all the confidence in the world after putting together the best hard court streak of his career and almost taking down Casper Ruud on clay, and his first round win against Jan-Lennard Struff should have helped him figure out the surface and adjust to its differences from tournaments prior.

All things considered, this match is heavily dependent on the PCB that shows up. If he continues to struggle, Ymer should be able to take the initiative and cause Carreno Busta serious problems.

Pick: Ymer +192 via PointsBet

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