Tuesday WNBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Aces-Sun, Sparks-Wings, Mercury-Sky & Fever-Storm (June 1)
Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Storm G Jordin Canada
- An under for a total that's already on the move. A favorite to back if their star plays.
- WNBA betting analyst Michael Arinze breaks down his betting preview all four WNBA games on Tuesday night.
- Find out how he's playing Aces at Sun, Sparks at Wings, Mercury at Sky and Fever at Storm.
This season has been quite an adjustment for many teams.
Overseas players returned stateside but couldn't rejoin their WNBA team until they were able to produce six negative COVID-19 tests. There's also been the reintegration of players who opted out last season. And, lastly, several teams are dealing with injuries that have impacted them at this early stage.
A combination of these three factors has added more challenges to handicapping this WNBA season as we've seen underdogs jump out to a 21-15-1 (+4.77 units) start. With four more games on the schedule, let's see if that trend continues to hold on Tuesday.
Projected WNBA Odds
| Click on a matchup to skip ahead | |||
| Matchup | Time | Proj. Spread | Proj. Total |
| Aces at Sun | 7 p.m. ET | Sun -1.05 | 157.08 |
| Sparks at Wings | 8 p.m. ET | Wings -1.75 | 167.52 |
| Mercury at Sky | 8:30 p.m. ET | Sky -2.15 | 160.19 |
| Fever at Storm | 10:30 p.m. ET | Fever -15.19 | 169.59 |
Aces vs. Sun Odds
| Aces Odds | +1 |
| Sun Odds | -1 |
| Moneyline | -110/-110 |
| Over/Under | 160.5 |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet. | |
Injuries & News
Las Vegas lists three players on its injury report: Destiny Slocum (2.4 points per game) is listed as questionable with a concussion while Kelsey Plum (10.5 PPG) and Angel McCoughtry have already been ruled out. Plum is away from the team in an attempt to qualify for the Olympics' inaugural 3X3 basketball tournament and McCoughtry is done for the season with a torn ACL.
As for Connecticut, Alyssa Thomas is the only player listed, and she's out for the season with a torn Achilles.
Payback For Cambage & the Aces
This game might be the most interesting matchup on the board for reasons other than what happens on the court. It will be the first meeting between these teams since Connecticut's head coach, Curt Miller, was suspended after making inappropriate remarks about the weight of Aces' center Liz Cambage while trying to appeal to the referees for a foul.
Connecticut Sun head coach and general manager Curt Miller was called out by Las Vegas Aces player Liz Cambage in an Instagram video for his offensive comment.https://t.co/LWv7oVvXp6
— The Mary Sue (@TheMarySue) May 30, 2021
The Sun ended up winning that contest 72-65 on the road, but I have to imagine the intensity will be at an all-time high for this meeting.
Las Vegas won both regular-season meetings in 2020, but needed the full five games to defeat Connecticut in the semifinals. During the playoffs, the Sun made some adjustments to their defensive sets and managed to limit Aces star A'ja Wilson to fewer than 20 points in the games the Sun won. They replicated that approach with the help of Jonquel Jones in their earlier meeting this season, limiting Wilson to just 14 points. Jones adds tremendous size and physicality to Connecticut's lineup at 6-foot-6 — that's something that Wilson doesn't normally see in her stops around the league.
It won't surprise me if the Aces try to adjust by giving Cambage more minutes to give Wilson some help in the post. That will take away from the Sun's ability to double the reigning MVP while also giving their head coach something else to think about in regards to trying to slow down Cambage.
As far as any action in this game is concerned, I'm much more interested in the total, which opened at 161.5 but has now been bet down to 160. I agree with the move, as my model projects the points closer to 157.08 in the game.
Pick: Under 160.5 at PointsBet (down to 157.5)
Sparks vs. Wings Odds
| Sparks Odds | +1 |
| Wings Odds | -1 |
| Moneyline | -106/-115 |
| Over/Under | 166 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings | |
Injuries & News
Los Angeles list three players on the injury report: Chiney Ogwumike (9.0 PPG) is questionable with a knee injury while Jasmine Walker (knee) is out for the season after a non-contact injury against the Aces on May 21 resulted in a torn ACL. Maria Vadeeva has yet to report to the team, but is expected back at some point later in the season.
Satou Sabally and Allisha Gray (23.0 PPG) are the only players on Dallas' injury report, and both are ruled out. Sabally has yet to feature for the Wings due to commitments with the German national team, and Gray has been involved in only one game.
Sparks' Efficiency Ratings Key to the Total
I'm not really sure what to think in this game, considering that the Sparks and Wings are two of three teams that have yet to play more than five games this season. What I do know is that the Sparks are probably better than their .500 record and that they're much better than the team that lost 94-71 to the Wings at home on opening night.
The first line I saw for this game had Los Angeles as high as a 3.5-point favorite. I still feel like I need to see more of these two teams, but the advanced numbers for both teams could give us an insight into the total.
According to WNBA.com, the Sparks are dead last with an offensive rating of 85.6 points per 100 possessions. They're also currently fourth with a defensive rating of 96.2.
My projects the number at 167.52 points, and even that may be too generous — keep in mind that the total is 3-0-1 to the under in Sparks games this season. I like that trend to remain intact on Tuesday night in Dallas, although I only like this under down to 168, so be sure to shop around for the best line if you can find it at the right price.
Pick: Under 168
Mercury vs. Sky Odds
| Mercury Odds | +1.5 |
| Sky Odds | -1.5 |
| Moneyline | +100/-120 |
| Over/Under | 162.5 |
| Time | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings | |
Injuries & News
Diana Taurasi (15.8 PPG) is out with a fractured sternum, and Bria Hartley's rehab is still ongoing after tearing her ACL in August last season.
The Sky list three players on their injury report: Candace Parker (16.0 PPG) is questionable with an ankle injury. At the same time, Allie Quigley (7.0 PPG) has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Stefanie Dolson (4.0 PPG) is also out due to her involvement in qualifications for the Olympics' 3X3 basketball tournament.
Parker or Pass
After a 2-0 start to the season, the Sky have lost their last four games. Much of that has to do with the absence of Parker, who has been sidelined with an ankle injury. Parker is listed as questionable for this game, so her status is certainly something to be mindful of leading up to the tipoff.
My projection with Chicago as a 2.15-point favorite is based on Parker playing, but I would likely lean to Phoenix if she's ruled out.
The Mercury are also without Taurasi, their starting point guard, but managed to hold on to defeat the Wings 89-85 on the road. Kia Nurse stepped up to give the Mercury 21 points, and if she can maintain that consistency, they'll have a chance to play at least .500 basketball while Taurasi is out.
But with Parker's status still questionable, this game is an easy pass for me at the moment. However, if I catch wind that she's playing, I would certainly be interested in the Sky at -1.5 or better.
Lean: Sky -1.5 if Parker plays
Fever vs. Storm Odds
| Fever Odds | +15 |
| Storm Odds | -15 |
| Moneyline | +675/-1100 |
| Over/Under | 169.5 |
| Time | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| Odds as of Tuesday and via DraftKings | |
Injuries & News
The Fever list Bernadett Hatar (6.7 PPG) as questionable and have ruled out Aaliyah Wilson due to a foot injury.
Seattle will be without Katie Lou Samuelson (9.0 PPG), who is also involved in qualifications for the Olympics' 3X3 basketball tournament. At the same time, Mikiah Herbert Harrigan is done for the season after announcing her pregnancy last week.
An Opening Total That Continues To Cash
The Indiana Fever has cemented its place at the bottom of my WNBA power rankings. Indiana is off to a woeful 1-7 start, and if the Liberty had not lost Sabrina Ionescu for the season last year after just three games, the Fever would have finished with the worst record in the league.
The Fever just finished a two-game series on the road against the Aces and got outscored by a total of 59 points. Las Vegas made only seven 3-pointers in each of the games, and now Indiana has to take on a Seattle team that's tied for second with 9.2 3-pointers per game.
My model projects Seattle as a 15.19-point favorite, which is right in line with the current market price at 15. As for the total, it wouldn't surprise me if this game is played somewhere in the low 170s.
The total actually opened at around 167.5 but now appears to be moving in the direction of my projection at 169.59.
This season, games that opened with at least 167.5 are 5-1 to the over for 3.6 units. That lines up nicely with my projection, and it's certainly worth a look at the current price.
Pick: Over 168.5 at BetMGM (up to 169.5)
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
