Boxing Expert Picks: Our Staff’s 6 Favorite Bets for Canelo vs. Jacobs

Boxing Expert Picks: Our Staff’s 6 Favorite Bets for Canelo vs. Jacobs article feature image
Credit:

Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Canelo Alvarez (left) and Daniel Jacobs (right) .

  • Canelo Alvarez is a -550 favorite over Daniel Jacobs in their Middleweight Championship fight on Saturday night (11:59 p.m. ET on DAZN).
  • Our boxing staffers picked their favorite bet each for tonight's main event:

Canelo Alvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs Betting Odds

  • Canelo odds: -550
  • Daniel Jacobs odds: +400
  • Over/Under: 10.5 Rounds (-350/+275)
  • Time: 11:59 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch: DAZN

It’s Cinco de Mayo Weekend and that means one thing — there will be boxing. And more importantly, there will be great boxing.

Mexican superstar Canelo Alvarez (51-1-2, 35 KOs) and Daniel “Miracle Man” Jacobs (35-2, 29 KOs) will put their middleweight titles on the line at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Alvarez opened as a -280/300 favorite but has since moved to -550 with Jacobs coming back at +400. This fight is projected to go the distance as the Over/Under is set at 10.5 rounds with the over juiced to -350.

Here are our staff’s favorite bets for Saturday night’s mega-fight:

Rob Perez: Under 10.5 Rounds (+275)

I love Jacobs, he’s such a great story and my god he can throw bombs. Bombs that could even break the armor of the famously iron chin of Canelo Alvarez. But it’s no secret what happens to Jacobs when he begins to tire, his form flatlines and ascends to boxing heaven and we are left with a completely open horse stance bar brawler.

Jacobs will go for the kill and if he doesn’t get it he’s going to be in trouble late against a fighter who wants nothing more than to drag him into the deep end (a la Floyd Mayweather) with defense and endurance.

Somebody is getting knocked out of this fight, I’m not entirely sure who, but neither fighter is “just looking to survive the bell and get paid.” Looking at you, Amir Khan.

Ian Hartitz: Canelo Alvarez to Win -450

Kings stay kings. We’ve seen Alvarez favored by -2500 vs. Rocky Fielding and -750 vs. Julio Cesar Chavez between underdog bouts against Gennady Golovkin.

Now we have Daniel Jacobs, who oddsmakers seem to believe has a real chance of pulling the upset, but then again is facing ESPN’s No. 3 pound-for-pound boxer in the world.

Laying odds longer than 4-1 is never ideal. Still, Alvarez is the type of boxing savant that is worth paying up for, especially in a battle where he’s expected to dominate the technical aspect. I see Alvarez winning by a late-round TKO or decision.

Evan Abrams: Canelo By Decision -120

Prior to his showdown with Gennady Golovkin in 2017, Daniel Jacobs stopped 15 opponents in a row. That streak was snapped by GGG, but the fight was very close and there were plenty of people who gave Jacobs the fight.

Including the loss to Golovkin, Jacobs has gone the distance in his last four fights. Prior to that, “The Miracle Man” had never had consecutive fights reach the judges’ table. He has scored a knock down in two of his last three bouts, but has unable to finish the job.

Canelo has not been a stranger to the scorecards in his recent fights. Sure, he made quick work of Rocky Fielding in his DAZN debut, but that wasn’t much of a contest.

Both fighters will start a bit slow and as Rob noted, I believe Jacobs will tire a bit late and Canelo should tack on a few rounds to win once the fight reaches its conclusion.

I have to mention this, because I believe it is a factor, but the judges, the DAZN contract, the holiday, the crowd, the venue…it’s all pro-Canelo and is a hard “storyline” to ignore for a sport based largely on the decision of three people that can be swayed by any in-arena reaction throughout the fight — basically the human element.

My one hedge bet here, would be Canelo by TKO/KO/DQ, which is +270. I think TKO is the best option of the bunch, but since it’s only offered at +350 on its own, worth it to include the knockout.

James Carlucci: Alvarez wins by decision (-120)

Alvarez is anywhere from -430 to -550 straight up, but the fight to go to decision is -200. I like both of these bets, and think taking this prop is the best way to maximize your return.

Canelo has the technical edge on Jacobs, and as his pair of bouts with GGG showed, he can evolve between fights and can fight at a championship-level pace for all 12 rounds. Jacobs has power but doesn’t have the chin to walk Alvarez down the way GGG did.

Both men have gone a combined 36 rounds with GGG. Canelo has gone to decision in his last three middleweight bouts, while Jacobs has gone to decision his last four in a row.

At the highest levels, both men tend to be in wars of attrition. I expect this bout will be no different. Jacobs will be scary early, but Canelo’s body work should be the difference-maker as the fight heads towards the later rounds.

It also doesn’t hurt that judges seem to love Canelo Alvarez.

Michael Leboff: Daniel Jacobs to Win +400

A lot of boxing pundits, fans and bettors are quick to remind everybody that both of these pugilists fought incredibly close bouts with Golovkin. That is sound logic and helps paint a picture of just how close these two middleweights are, but I want to take this a step further.

Not only did Alvarez reap the benefit of home-cooked cards from the judges in his fights with GGG, he also barely skated by fights with Lara and Austin Trout. Lara and Trout are good fighters, so close bouts with them is nothing to be ashamed about, but those four fights tell you that Alvarez isn’t invincible.

Yes, Canelo is a generational talent and he’s getting better with each fight, but he’s not perfect. Alvarez’s habit of fighting in bursts and doing just enough to ahem earn the respect of the judges is not a mirage and I am happy to take a shot on Jacobs at a great price.

These odds indicate that Canelo basically wins this fight 80% of the time. In terms of in-ring skill, that number seriously flatters Alvarez and tells you that the bookmakers, like the rest of us, are skeptical that there’s any chance of Canelo losing a decision in Vegas.

That is still a risk worth taking considering the value on Jacobs. Canelo may win this fight more often than not, these odds are way too wide and underrate the Fighting Pride of Brooklyn, New York.

It isn’t very often you get to bet with the head and the heart, but a bet on Jacobs in this fight is just that. I’m excited to back the “The Miracle Man.”

Malik Smith: Daniel Jacobs to Win +400

There’s so much to love about both guys in this fight. The style matchup between the two is going to be fun to watch. It should be noted that Canelo was a short underdog in both fights with GGG as he was the challenger and not the champion.

I think that small factor plays into the mindset of a fighter. It’s a different ballgame when you’re the hunter compared to when you are being hunted. Jacobs is the best hunter that Álvarez has faced to this point in his career.

At the end of the day this fight comes down to who can execute their gameplan faster, and more effectively. We know Canelo will try for the body — about 30% of his total punches land in that area according to CompuBox data. We know Jacobs will attempt to use his reach because he’s talked about it repeatedly in his pre-fight interviews.

Both guys are great punchers with great chins, who respect the power of their opponent, so I’m not expecting a knockout victory.

Like Michael, I’m going to back the Brownsville product Jacobs to win outright. It’s very likely we see his odds get longer as fans start to file into Las Vegas over the weekend and place their bets leading up to fight time, so it’s not a bad idea to see if you get even better odds on him.