Canelo Álvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs Betting Odds, Preview: Can Danny Pull Off a Miracle?

May 05, 2019 10:50 PM EDT
Credit:

Joe Camporeale – USA Today Sports | Ed Mulholland – Matchroom Boxing USA. Pictured: (left) Canelo Álvarez, Daniel Jacobs.

  • Canleo Álverez will put his WBA and WBC middleweight title belts on the line vs. IBF title holder Daniel Jacobs in a unification bout.
  • Betting odds list Álvarez as a heavy favorite to win his third middleweight belt in an eight-month span.

Canelo Álvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs Betting Odds

  • Canelo Álvarez odds: -450
  • Daniel Jacobs odds: +350
  • Over/Under: 10.5 Rounds (-240/+190)
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
  • Channel: DAZN 
  • Time: Approx. 11:59 p.m. ET

Much of the intrigue at the very top of any good weight class in boxing is centered around matchups. Gennady Golovkin won against Daniel Jacobs, Canelo Álvarez won against Golovkin, and now Álvarez and Jacobs meet for a highly anticipated middleweight unification bout in Las Vegas.

It’s boxing’s version of the circle of life.

Álvarez (51-1-2; 35 KO) won his first middleweight belt in 2015 after defeating Miguel Cotto, vacated the belt six months later, changed weight classes, fought GGG to a draw and then became a middleweight champion again. Jacobs(35-2; 29 KO) held a secondary middleweight title, which he lost to Golovkin, but won the vacant IBF belt in December.

Now Jacobs and Álvarez will battle to determine who is the top middleweight fighter in the world … for now.

Betting Market for Canelo vs. Jacobs

The Mexican-born Álvarez will be fighting on a popular weekend for both boxing fans and Mexicans and the odds are in his favor to make his country proud.

Most books opened Canelo in the -280/-300 range, indicating Canelo is a strong, but not out-of-control favorite. Since then it’s been one-way traffic on Alvarez.

At the time of writing, Canelo has eclipsed the -450 threshold at almost every sportsbook and it’s hard to imagine his price won’t keep climbing as his fans land in Vegas for the fight.

“We need Jacobs, but not by a huge margin since the Canelo price is so low,” John Murray of the Westgate SuperBook said. “One notable thing is that we’ve taken several large wagers on the over (10.5 rounds). We definitely don’t want the fight to go the distance, but that is what is expected and will likely happen.”

The Judges

Canelo has an interesting history with judges in Las Vegas dating back to his fight with Floyd Mayweather. This fight will feature the same three judges as Canelo’s second fight with Golovkin — Dave Moretti, Glenn Feldman and Steve Weisfeld.

Feldman has been a judge for both fighters in the past (twice for Jacobs, three times for Canelo), but only twice did a fight go to decision. The first was Álvarez vs. Cesar Chavez Jr, which wasn’t even close.

The other fight was Canelo-GGG II and Feldman was the only judge who did not score the fight for Canelo, as he had it 114-114, while the other two judges, Dave Moretti and Steve Weisfeld, scored it 115-113 for Canelo. — Evan Abrams

CompuBox Breakdown

Dan Cannobio of CompuBox analyzed the particulars of this matchup on his show Inside Boxing Live with DAZN analyst Chris Mannix and talked NBA fights with The Action Network’s own Senior NBA Producer Rob Perez.

How Álvarez Can Win

By: Michael Leboff

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is a superstar.

He may be polarizing thanks to his handler, Oscar de La Hoya, but there’s no question about his standing in the sport. The 28-year-old is a god in his native Mexico and no matter who he fights, his fans show up to support him and will make this a home game for the Cinnamon Kid.

Although he is still young, Alvarez has already seen it all. He’s already fought several career-defining fights against Floyd Mayweather, Golovkin (twice) and Cotto. Each time Canelo gets into the ring, he gets a little bit sharper and adds new layers to his game.

At this point in his career, Canelo can beat you with his accurate counter-punching, his power, his speed, his boxing IQ or all of the above. You could suggest this fight is closer than people think, but there’s no question Canelo is the No. 1 talent in the ring on Saturday.

That being said, Alvarez will need his A-Game because Daniel Jacobs presents a bunch of different problems.

Not only is Jacobs the bigger fighter, but he’s athletic and a quick-mover. Canelo has struggled with that moving targets in the past, Erislandy Lara and Floyd Mayweather come to mind, so if Jacobs uses his feet, Canelo will need to find a way to slow him down.

That probably calls for Canelo to work the body. That does two things: It will take away Jacobs’ quickness and it will force Alvarez to get inside of Jacobs, which negates the Brooklyn native’s reach advantage. The most obvious path  to success for Alvarez is getting inside the pocket.

Not many fighters can hang with the Guadalajara native in terms of inside-fighting and his head movement, accuracy and strength makes him an absolute bear to deal with in close range.

 

Jacobs has power, though not in the same class as Golovkin, so Canelo’s iron chin should hold up. That should allow Canelo to find his rhythm and fight on his own terms, which is a good thing since he’s got a habit of boxing in spurts. Alvarez likes to pick his spots and, for one reason or another, those spurts of class are usually good enough to win rounds.

You can’t really measure how much “home-field advantage” is worth in boxing, but this is a sport scored by human beings and if the crowd is cheering every time you throw a punch — whether it lands or not — it will have an impact on the judging.

Alvarez has benefited from generous scoring in his career, and I wouldn’t expect anything different here.

How Jacobs Can Win

By: Malik Smith

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