Canelo Álvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs Betting Odds, Preview: Can Danny Pull Off a Miracle?

Canelo Álvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs Betting Odds, Preview: Can Danny Pull Off a Miracle? article feature image
Credit:

Joe Camporeale – USA Today Sports | Ed Mulholland – Matchroom Boxing USA. Pictured: (left) Canelo Álvarez, Daniel Jacobs.

  • Canleo Álverez will put his WBA and WBC middleweight title belts on the line vs. IBF title holder Daniel Jacobs in a unification bout.
  • Betting odds list Álvarez as a heavy favorite to win his third middleweight belt in an eight-month span.

Canelo Álvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs Betting Odds

  • Canelo Álvarez odds: -450
  • Daniel Jacobs odds: +350
  • Over/Under: 10.5 Rounds (-240/+190)
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
  • Channel: DAZN 
  • Time: Approx. 11:59 p.m. ET

Much of the intrigue at the very top of any good weight class in boxing is centered around matchups. Gennady Golovkin won against Daniel Jacobs, Canelo Álvarez won against Golovkin, and now Álvarez and Jacobs meet for a highly anticipated middleweight unification bout in Las Vegas.

It’s boxing’s version of the circle of life.

Álvarez (51-1-2; 35 KO) won his first middleweight belt in 2015 after defeating Miguel Cotto, vacated the belt six months later, changed weight classes, fought GGG to a draw and then became a middleweight champion again. Jacobs(35-2; 29 KO) held a secondary middleweight title, which he lost to Golovkin, but won the vacant IBF belt in December.

Now Jacobs and Álvarez will battle to determine who is the top middleweight fighter in the world … for now.

Betting Market for Canelo vs. Jacobs

The Mexican-born Álvarez will be fighting on a popular weekend for both boxing fans and Mexicans and the odds are in his favor to make his country proud.

Most books opened Canelo in the -280/-300 range, indicating Canelo is a strong, but not out-of-control favorite. Since then it’s been one-way traffic on Alvarez.

At the time of writing, Canelo has eclipsed the -450 threshold at almost every sportsbook and it’s hard to imagine his price won’t keep climbing as his fans land in Vegas for the fight.

“We need Jacobs, but not by a huge margin since the Canelo price is so low,” John Murray of the Westgate SuperBook said. “One notable thing is that we’ve taken several large wagers on the over (10.5 rounds). We definitely don’t want the fight to go the distance, but that is what is expected and will likely happen.”

The Judges

Canelo has an interesting history with judges in Las Vegas dating back to his fight with Floyd Mayweather. This fight will feature the same three judges as Canelo’s second fight with Golovkin — Dave Moretti, Glenn Feldman and Steve Weisfeld.

Feldman has been a judge for both fighters in the past (twice for Jacobs, three times for Canelo), but only twice did a fight go to decision. The first was Álvarez vs. Cesar Chavez Jr, which wasn’t even close.

The other fight was Canelo-GGG II and Feldman was the only judge who did not score the fight for Canelo, as he had it 114-114, while the other two judges, Dave Moretti and Steve Weisfeld, scored it 115-113 for Canelo. — Evan Abrams

CompuBox Breakdown

Dan Cannobio of CompuBox analyzed the particulars of this matchup on his show Inside Boxing Live with DAZN analyst Chris Mannix and talked NBA fights with The Action Network’s own Senior NBA Producer Rob Perez.

How Álvarez Can Win

By: Michael Leboff

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is a superstar.

He may be polarizing thanks to his handler, Oscar de La Hoya, but there’s no question about his standing in the sport. The 28-year-old is a god in his native Mexico and no matter who he fights, his fans show up to support him and will make this a home game for the Cinnamon Kid.

Although he is still young, Alvarez has already seen it all. He’s already fought several career-defining fights against Floyd Mayweather, Golovkin (twice) and Cotto. Each time Canelo gets into the ring, he gets a little bit sharper and adds new layers to his game.

At this point in his career, Canelo can beat you with his accurate counter-punching, his power, his speed, his boxing IQ or all of the above. You could suggest this fight is closer than people think, but there’s no question Canelo is the No. 1 talent in the ring on Saturday.

That being said, Alvarez will need his A-Game because Daniel Jacobs presents a bunch of different problems.

Not only is Jacobs the bigger fighter, but he’s athletic and a quick-mover. Canelo has struggled with that moving targets in the past, Erislandy Lara and Floyd Mayweather come to mind, so if Jacobs uses his feet, Canelo will need to find a way to slow him down.

That probably calls for Canelo to work the body. That does two things: It will take away Jacobs’ quickness and it will force Alvarez to get inside of Jacobs, which negates the Brooklyn native’s reach advantage. The most obvious path  to success for Alvarez is getting inside the pocket.

Not many fighters can hang with the Guadalajara native in terms of inside-fighting and his head movement, accuracy and strength makes him an absolute bear to deal with in close range.

 

Jacobs has power, though not in the same class as Golovkin, so Canelo’s iron chin should hold up. That should allow Canelo to find his rhythm and fight on his own terms, which is a good thing since he’s got a habit of boxing in spurts. Alvarez likes to pick his spots and, for one reason or another, those spurts of class are usually good enough to win rounds.

You can’t really measure how much “home-field advantage” is worth in boxing, but this is a sport scored by human beings and if the crowd is cheering every time you throw a punch — whether it lands or not — it will have an impact on the judging.

Alvarez has benefited from generous scoring in his career, and I wouldn’t expect anything different here.

How Jacobs Can Win

By: Malik Smith

Jacobs’ personal story is well known, but it cannot be overstated. He came back from a bout with cancer and took his career to even higher heights. Any fighter who can return to the boxing ring 17 months after finding out they have bone cancer is cut from a different cloth.

The same sentiment can be applied to Jacobs inside the ring. His losses have catapulted him to where he is now. Jacobs’ 2010 TKO loss to Dmitry Pirog spawned a 12-fight win streak in which he knocked out every opponent he faced.

Then there was the GGG fight.

Jacobs got caught off balance on the ropes with two strong right hands from Golovkin that sent him to the mat:

Despite that knockdown, Jacobs won five of 12 rounds on two judges scorecards and six rounds on another in a close decision loss. Most fighters would have crumbled under the pressure, but Jacobs was mentally tough enough to rally late in the fight. In his three fights since, all wins, Jacobs seems to be fighting smarter just like he did in the second half of his fight with GGG.

So what does all that mean for Saturday? A lot, actually.

Like Golovkin, Canelo is a strong puncher. But the Mexican champion is smaller than Jacobs in stature (5′ 8″ to 5′ 11½”) and has a shorter reach by 3 inches. Jacobs has to use that advantage when the two are at a distance and score with his jab to keep Canelo at bay.

As Leboff stated above, Álvarez had trouble adjusting to fighters who move well in the past — Mayweather, Lara and Amir Khan … for approximately five rounds. Canelo moves his head well, but Jacobs has the advantage in how he moves his feet.

When Jacobs does get close, he has to mix in body shots, which Álvarez will look to do as well. Jacobs landed 48 body shots in his most recent fight with Sergiy Derevyanchenko and averages 3.4 per round per CompuBox.

He is at his best when he is throwing combinations. His power and relentless attack can be tough for any fighter to withstand. That will be key in the later rounds and could lead to exciting moments like this one:

Álvarez vs. Jacobs Best Bets

A lot of boxing pundits, fans and bettors are quick to remind everybody that both of these pugilists fought incredibly close bouts with Golovkin. That is sound logic and helps paint a picture of just how close these two middleweights are, but I want to take this a step further.

Not only did Alvarez reap the benefit of home-cooked cards from the judges in his fights with GGG, he also barely skated by fights with Lara and Austin Trout. Lara and Trout are good fighters, so close bouts with them is nothing to be ashamed about, but those four fights tell you that Alvarez isn’t invincible.

Yes, Canelo is a generational talent and he’s getting better with each fight, but he’s not perfect. Alvarez’s habit of fighting in bursts and doing just enough to ahem earn the respect of the judges is not a mirage and I am happy to take a shot on Jacobs at a great price.

These odds indicate that Canelo basically wins this fight 80% of the time. In terms of in-ring skill, that number seriously flatters Alvarez and tells you that the bookmakers, like the rest of us, are skeptical that there’s any chance of Canelo losing a decision in Vegas.

That is still a risk worth taking considering the value on Jacobs. Canelo may win this fight more often than not, these odds are way too wide and underrate the Fighting Pride of Brooklyn, New York.

It isn’t very often you get to bet with the head and the heart, but a bet on Jacobs in this fight is just that. I’m excited to back the “The Miracle Man.” — Leboff

There’s so much to love about both guys in this fight. The style matchup between the two is going to be fun to watch. It should be noted that Canelo was a short underdog in both fights with GGG as he was the challenger and not the champion.

I think that small factor plays into the mindset of a fighter. It’s a different ballgame when you’re the hunter compared to when you are being hunted. Jacobs is the best hunter that Álvarez has faced to this point in his career.

At the end of the day this fight comes down to who can execute their gameplan faster, and more effectively. We know Canelo will try for the body — about 30% of his total punches land in that area according to CompuBox data. We know Jacobs will attempt to use his reach because he’s talked about it repeatedly in his pre-fight interviews.

Both guys are great punchers with great chins, who respect the power of their opponent, so I’m not expecting a knockout victory.

Like Michael, I’m going to back the Brownsville product Jacobs to win outright. It’s very likely we see his odds get longer as fans start to file into Las Vegas over the weekend and place their bets leading up to fight time, so it’s not a bad idea to see if you get even better odds on him. — Malik Smith