2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic Trifecta, Superfecta Betting Picks: Bet Against the Favorite McKinzie?

2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic Trifecta, Superfecta Betting Picks: Bet Against the Favorite McKinzie? article feature image
Credit:

Richard Mackson, USA Today Sports.

  • The 2019 Breeders' Cup Classic will be run on Saturday, November 1 at 8:44 p.m. ET on NBC.
  • Sean Zerillo offers some strategies to help pick the right combination for exotics, including his trifecta and superfecta plays.

The 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic will go to post at 8:44 p.m. ET on Saturday, with the Bob Baffert trained No. 8 McKinzie (3-1) listed as the morning-line favorite.

McKinzie has finished in first or second place in 12 of 13-lifetime starts – only missing the board in the 2018 Classic. Baffert is seeking his fourth-career win in this race, most recently taking the 2014 and 2015 editions with Bayern and American Pharoah, respectively.

Trainer John Sadler also has a chance to win the Classic for the second consecutive year, with his horse No. 7 Higher Power, after Accelerate won the 2018 Classic.

Should you include McKinzie and Higher Power on your exotic tickets, and are there any longshots to look out for?


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2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds

No. 1: Math Wizard (30-1)
No. 2: Seeking the Soul (20-1)
No. 3: Owendale (15-1)
No. 4: War of Will (20-1)
No. 5: Yoshida (8-1)
No. 6: Elate (6-1)
No. 7: Higher Power (6-1)
No. 8: McKinzie (3-1)
No. 9: Mongolian Groom (12-1)
No. 10: Vino Rosso (4-1)
No. 11: Code of Honor (4-1)

2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic Trifecta, Superfecta Plays

Implied odds suggest that the No. 8 McKinzie wins this race 25% of the time, based upon morning line odds (3-1). But he is a tepid top selection.

McKinzie is arguably the best horse in the field and should win if he runs his best race.

But there are questions about his ability to get the full 10 furlongs in the Classic, and the recent jockey change from Mike Smith to Joel Rosario signifies a likely shift in tactics.

I’ll be going against him winning this race, as I think the distance concerns are valid – but McKinzie always runs well, and I will use him underneath on tickets.

What other horses should you consider including in your exotics?

Horses I’m Tossing Out

No. 1 Math Wizard – The three-year-old was a maiden until he won the G1 Pennsylvania Derby in September, over one of the top selections in the Dirt Mile, Mr. Money. Math Wizard makes another step up in class here and will have to get in good position from the rail.

No. 2 Seeking the Soul – The distance is too much for him, and he put in two sub-par efforts in his two recent starts (including a 4th place finish at Santa Anita) since winning the G2 Stephen Foster – one of two wins over the past two years for this six-year-old.

No. 4 War of Will – The Preakness winner looked like a future star on the Derby trail, but will get blinkers for the first time coming off of a trio of inadequate efforts. While they should get War of Will into the race earlier, the blinkers seem like a bit of a desperation move for trainer Mark Casse.

No. 9 Mongolian Groom – Will try to use speed as he did to put McKinzie away in the G1 Awesome Again at Santa Anita. Supplemented to this race for 200K, this horse should have much more company upfront pressing the pace this time around.

Horses to Use Underneath in Exotics

No. 3 Owendale  – Improving three-year-old might have won the G1 Preakness Stakes with a better trip and has a powerful closing move to kick past tiring horses after what could be a hot early pace in this Classic.

No. 7 Higher Power – Finished third behind McKinzie and Mongolian Groom after stumbling in the G1 Awesome Again, and ran a terrific speed figure in the G1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar. That effort is reasonable enough to win this race, but I think his price will be too short.

No. 8 McKinzie – New jockey Joel Rosario is expected to put McKinzie on the lead early. I think he fades late in the stretch, but still hits the bottom of the board.

Horses to Play to Win

No. 5 Yoshida – The best closer in this race will have to come from the clouds – as he so often does, losing the 2018 Classic by less than two lengths; but this field is weaker than the one he faced last year. Yoshida has looked excellent in training and is sitting on a significant effort – he’s my top win contender.

No. 6 Elate – The mare is 3-for-3 at this distance but will be running against males for the first time. She has looked sharp in training, and her best effort is reasonable enough to win the Classic – a race Bill Mott opted for instead of facing Midnight Bisou in the Distaff.

No. 10 Vino Rosso – Scored an important win over this new Santa Anita surface at 10 furlongs, and was disqualified from a first-place finish in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. Vino Rosso has earned his three best speed figures in consecutive races while showing improved tactical speed throughout.

No. 11 Code of Honor – Has to take another step up off wins big at the Travers and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, but this three-year-old is proven at this distance and looks to be making a star turn, since the Derby trail ended, under Shug McGaughey. Code of Honor is my second choice.

Bet now at TVG to get your $500 Risk Free Wager.

Example Wagers

$0.50 Trifecta  = $12 Ticket (24 combinations)

1st: 5, 6, 10, 11

2nd: 5, 6, 10, 11

3rd: 7, 8

$0.50 Trifecta  = $12 Ticket (24 combinations)

1st: 5, 6, 10, 11

2nd: 7, 8

3rd: 5, 6, 10, 11

$0.50 Trifecta  = $4 Ticket (8 combinations)

1st: 5, 6, 10, 11

2nd: 7,8

3rd: 7,8

$0.10 Superfecta  = $4 Ticket (40 combinations)

1st: 10, 11

2nd: 10,11

3rd: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8

4th: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8

$0.10 Superfecta  = $4 Ticket (40 combinations)

1st: 10, 11

2nd: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8

3rd: 10, 11

4th: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8

$0.10 Superfecta  = $4 Ticket (40 combinations)

1st: 10, 11

2nd: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8

3rd: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8

4th: 10, 11

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