Mike Conti and Sean Zerillo covered all their favorite horse racing picks for Saturday's Belmont Stakes – and the ones to avoid!
The two betting experts hopped on the Action Network podcast and previewed everything from win contenders, tosses, exactas and trifectas for the 2025 Belmont Stakes to help bettors get a feel for the field.
Check out the odds, analysis and predictions below for Race 13, scheduled for 7:04 p.m. ET.
Belmont Stakes Predictions
Zerillo's Exacta Pick: 6 / 7
Conti's Exacta Pick: 7 / 6
Zerillo's Trifecta Pick: 6 / 2, 7 / 1, 2, 3, 7 9 (can flip lines 1 & 2; 2 & 3)
Conti's Trifecta Pick: 7 / 6 / 1, 2
Belmont Stakes Odds
| Post | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hill Road | 12-1 |
| 2 | Sovereignty | 3-1 |
| 3 | Rodriguez | 6-1 |
| 4 | Uncaged | 16-1 |
| 5 | Crudo | 10-1 |
| 6 | Baeza | 3-1 |
| 7 | Journalism | 2-1 |
| 8 | Heart of Honor | 17-1 |
Odds via TwinSpires as of 4:40 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Conti and Zerillo helped trim the field by agreeing to toss out two long-shots bettors should avoid picking to contend in the Belmont Stakes: No. 8 Heart of Honor and No. 4 Uncaged.
Heart of Honor finished fifth in the Preakness with an 86 Beyer Speed score, but Zerillo noted the tougher field. As for No. 4, Uncaged, Zerillo's analysis is that owner Mike Repole is essentially just happy to have a horse in the race.
Another horse Zerillo is crossing off is the No. 5 Crudo.
"Crudo won the Sir Barton stakes on Preakness day, but that was at odds of 15-1, and it didn't come back at a particularly fast race," Zerillo noted. "Now he's stepping up against better competition two weeks later and he's going to be vying with Rodriguez for the front in this field. He ran a career-best 84 Beyer in that Sir Barton, but I don't think he's fast enough."
Conti suggests a correlated approach to tossing the No. 5, Crudo.
"If you're going to toss Crudo, I think you also have to toss No. 3 Rodriguez, in my opinion, because Rodriguez has proven in his career that he does not like/can't pass horses," he said. "Rodriguez's two lifetime wins were from the front end and just didn't look back. One of those was a maiden win, and the other one was an impressive win in the (G2 Wood Memorial).
On paper, when you start to look at early-pace figures, Crudo actually has a faster early-pace figure than Rodriguez does. And so if you're going to toss one, in my opinion, you've got to toss both."
Check out Conti's All-Day Belmont Stakes Card Here!
Belmont Stakes Picks
Time for the goodies.
As for contenders, Zerillo's interested in three particular horses. To win, he highlighted No. 6 Baeza as the strongest bet.
"I think he's the best value on the board," Zerillo said.
"This is a horse who's improved his Beyer Speed figure in every single career start, running a 102 in the Kentucky Derby, which matched Journalism."
Conti agrees that there's value on Baeza at 4-1. But Journalism is the deserved favorite.
"From a value perspective, it's Baeza all day long. From a talent perspective, I don't think it's any question it's Journalism," Conti said.
"8/5 is a pretty fair price, and that's actually decent value for what I believe Journalism is in terms of being a spectacular horse. If he sticks around that number, I think you're going to see a lot of people using him. In terms of how I'm thinking about it from A's and B's and multi-race wagers, honestly, I'll probably put Journalism as a sole A and then have Baeza and Sovereignty as Bs."
Belmont Stakes Exacta, Trifecta Picks for 2025
The guys dished out their best exacta, trifecta and other vertical-wager bets. We'll start with Zerillo's approach, which centered around Baeza showing.
"For exacta, the No. 6 (Baeza) on top of either the No. 3 (Rodriguez) or the No. 1 (Hill Road) – just in terms of value, I think that may be the best bet.
Likelier? The No. 6 over No. 7 (Journalism) ice cold is I think how I'm playing it, with Baeza getting first run on Journalism this time. You could also bet the No. 7 over the No. 6; I think that's perfectly acceptable.
I'm going to have a trifecta with Baeza on top of both favorites, the No. 2 (Sovereignty) and the No. 7 (Journalism). Then, the other two horses I mentioned are the No. 3 (Rodriguez) and the No. 1 (Hill Road). So six on top of two, seven on top of one, two, three, seven. And then I think you can flip lines two and three; you could also flip lines one and two.
And then lastly, two, seven over one, two, three, seven over six. a bunch of exacta and trifecta combinations, but most of which are keying around Baeza finishing first, second, or third."
Conti's approach is a bit straightforward.
"I'm going to play No. 7 Journalism over No. 6 Baeza. And then, from a trifecta perspective, I'm going to play seven over six over one, two."
