Kentucky Derby Win Contenders, Longshots, Exactas, Trifectas

Kentucky Derby Win Contenders, Longshots, Exactas, Trifectas article feature image
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Kentucky Derby horse participant Final Gambit. Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Bettors eyeing longshots to win Saturday's Kentucky Derby may be on to something.

"Some might argue against this, but I don't believe that there's a true standout in this field," said Action Network horse racing expert Mike Conti. "And I think that we've got a deep field, which from a betting perspective makes it really exciting."

Conti and fellow Action expert Sean Zerillo dug into all kinds of horse racing betting topics surrounding Saturday's Kentucky Derby on the Action Network Podcast.

Below, readers can get a better glimpse at the experts' favorite win contenders and longshot picks to use underneath, as well as how these form their exactas, exacta boxes and trifecta predictions.

2025 Kentucky Derby Odds for Saturday

PostHorseOdds
1Citizen Bull20-1
2Neoequos50-1
3Final Gambit30-1
5American Promise30-1
6Admire Daytona30-1
7Luxor Cafe10-1
8Journalism3-1
9Burnham Square8-1
11Flying Mohawk36-1
12East Avenue35-1
13Publisher20-1
14Tiztastic15-1
15Render Judgment50-1
16Coal Battle30-1
17Sandman5-1
18Sovereignty9-2
19Chunk of Gold20-1
20Owen Almighty50-1
21Baeza50-1

Odds via TwinSpires as of Friday. Use our TwinSpires promo code ACTIONRACING to get a $400 Sign Up Offer!

Kentucky Derby Predictions: Win Contenders, Longshots, Exactas, Trifectas

Kentucky Derby Win Contenders

Win Contender: #7 Luxor Cafe, shipping over from Japan where he’s won his last four starts. His sire is American Pharoah who won this race back in 2015. He has a strong late kick, which will be key in a race with a lot of early pace. – Mike Conti

Win Contender: #8 Journalism (3-1). The deserving morning-line favorite comes in with the highest last out Beyer Speed Figure (102). While he looks to be the most-talented horse in the field, he’s only beat 12 horses in his last three starts combined. He will need to beat 18 others in the Derby. He’s bred top and bottom to get the distance and has a ferocious closing kick. For Journalism, it will all come down to the trip. – Mike Conti

2025 Kentucky Derby Odds, Best Bets, Predictions for May 3 Image

Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks

Both Conti and Zerillo agree there's value on Final Gambit as a longshot.

"He's also been taking to the Churchill Downs track really well this week, and that is super important because this is a synthetic specialist horse — it's a mystery how he was going to look on this track — but he had a humongous final workout," Zerillo said. "The distance should not be a problem for him. I think he should ultimately be in the mix at the end."

Conti, meanwhile, flagged Final Gambit's win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks as important, noting five of the last 22 to win have hit the board in the Kentucky Derby.


Kentucky Derby Exacta, Exacta Box Picks

Zerillo's Exacta Box: 8,9,21

Conti's Exacta: 7,8 / 3,7,8,17,21

Kentucky Derby Trifecta Picks

Conti's Trifecta: 7,8 / 3,7,8,9,17,18,19,21/ 3,7,8,9,17,18,19,21


Check out more Kentucky Derby best bets and insights below!

About the Author
Alex began his career as a freelancer before becoming a columnist, reporter, and breaking news writer for FanRag Sports, and later the leading gambling writer at theScore. He joined the Action Network as a senior news editor, handling breaking news and the sports betting market's reactions. Alex also works on Action Network’s PRO projections, transforming subscription-based models into user-friendly content.

Follow Alex Kolodziej @KolodziejAlex on Twitter/X.

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