Potential Rain for 2025 Kentucky Derby Weather: Forecast, Analysis, Tips

Potential Rain for 2025 Kentucky Derby Weather: Forecast, Analysis, Tips article feature image
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Officials warned attendees to seek shelter as a severe storm approached during the ninth race on Oaks Day at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. on May 2, 2025. Sam Upshaw Jr./Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Weather may shake up the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

The 151st Run of the Roses had potential rain in the forecast days leading up to Saturday. The closer to the main race we get, the more likely rain is to impact Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., and the 2025 Kentucky Derby field.

Obviously, this is important to the betting odds.

Luckily, we're staying up to date on the Kentucky Derby weather below, and providing insight from our horse racing experts on a particular horse who might benefit from potential rain Saturday.

2025 Kentucky Derby Odds

PostHorseOdds
1Citizen Bull20-1
2Neoequos50-1
3Final Gambit30-1
5American Promise30-1
6Admire Daytona30-1
7Luxor Cafe10-1
8Journalism3-1
9Burnham Square8-1
11Flying Mohawk36-1
12East Avenue35-1
13Publisher20-1
14Tiztastic15-1
15Render Judgment50-1
16Coal Battle30-1
17Sandman5-1
18Sovereignty9-2
19Chunk of Gold20-1
20Owen Almighty50-1
21Baeza50-1

Odds via TwinSpires as of Friday. Use our TwinSpires promo code ACTIONRACING to get a $400 Sign Up Offer!

Kentucky Derby Weather Report

It's important to note that on Friday, the Churchill Downs track in Louisville, Ky., was hit with severe weather. Jefferson County issued a severe thunderstorm warning roughly at 4 p.m.

It was enough weather to delay the Kentucky Oaks main race.

For Saturday's Kentucky Derby forecast, Accuweather was very detailed with its outlook for those going to the track.

The weather outlet noted "periods of rain and a thunderstorm into the early afternoon" and that "rain gear may come in handy for the Derby."

Accuweather gives an overall 98% chance of precipitation at Churchill Downs for May 3, alongside 39% chance of thunderstorms.

Kentucky Derby Tips, Analysis

When speaking of potential weather, horse racing expert Mike Conti highlighted Luxor Cafe as a horse to watch.

Luxor Cafe, 15-1 on the morning line, has four firsts across six starts.

"He's run well with some moisture in the track, which I think will significantly benefit him," Conti said on the Action Network podcast. "And I think it's really important to note as well, he's sired by American Pharaoh. For those of us that watch horse racing or even bet on the Kentucky Derby, American Pharaoh was the one who broke the Triple Crown streak a few years back."

Check out more Kentucky Derby best bets and insights below!

About the Author
Alex began his career as a freelancer before becoming a columnist, reporter, and breaking news writer for FanRag Sports, and later the leading gambling writer at theScore. He joined the Action Network as a senior news editor, handling breaking news and the sports betting market's reactions. Alex also works on Action Network’s PRO projections, transforming subscription-based models into user-friendly content.

Follow Alex Kolodziej @KolodziejAlex on Twitter/X.

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